Poll: Immigration operations in Minnesota leave behind a more polarized populace

President Donald Trump’s immigration policies have divided Minnesotans even more sharply than adults nationwide, new polling shows.

After federal officers killed two U.S. citizens last month, self-identified Republicans in the state expressed stronger support for Trump’s immigration agenda than Republicans nationwide, while Minnesota Democrats and independents pulled more strongly the other way than their national counterparts.

That’s according to two NBC News Decision Desk polls powered by SurveyMonkey fielded nationwide and specifically in Minnesota in late January and early February. The polls were conducted after federal immigration officers shot and killed Renee Good and Alex Pretti and before the Trump administration began to pull immigration officers out of Minneapolis.

Since late November, Minnesotans, particularly those who live and work in Minneapolis and the surrounding metro area, have had an up-close view of what Trump administration officials dubbed Operation Metro Surge — a deployment of more than 3,000 federal immigration officers and agents to the city. While the administration’s actions mirrored similar deployments to other major cities, such as Chicago and Los Angeles, tensions between the local community and federal officers reached a boiling point in January, when Good and Pretti were killed in separate confrontations. Videos of the incidents spread on social media, and protesters took to the streets for weeks.

The numbers suggest that the experience was a galvanizing — and polarizing — event. Across a range of questions, Minnesotans frequently had stronger feelings both for or against administration policies compared with all U.S. adults. Adults from Minnesota were less likely to respond that they “somewhat” approved or disapproved, for example, of Trump’s job on immigration and border security.

The pattern extended to Minnesotans’ feelings about whether it was true that “regular, law-abiding citizens have nothing to fear” about U.S. immigration agents. Nationally, 31% of adults strongly agreed with that statement, compared with 34% in Minnesota. Meanwhile, 40% nationally strongly disagreed, compared with 46% of adult Minnesotans who strongly disagreed.

Those strong convictions could have been fueled by the especially high share of Minnesotans who reported having heard a lot about Immigrations and Customs Enforcement’s actions in the state and the two killings.

All but 1% or 2% of people in Minnesota had heard some or a lot about the immigration operation. Most U.S. adults said they had heard a lot, too, but the rate among adult Minnesotans was about 10 points higher than among all U.S. adults.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in Minnesota were also consistently likelier to support the actions of ICE than Republicans across the country.

But there was a notable geographical split in the data. Republicans living in Minneapolis, St. Paul and suburbs of the Twin Cities — the most Democratic-leaning part of the state — were at times warier of the Trump administration’s crackdown than those in the rest of the state. For example, Republicans in the Twin Cities area, who were closer to the immigration enforcement operation, the protests and the response, were three times likelier than Republicans in the rest of Minnesota to say ICE and Border Patrol tactics had gone too far.

Just under half of Minnesota adults identified themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, and they were incredibly skeptical about ICE’s actions after the shootings. And independents in the state — about 15% of the adults in the poll who self-identified that way — frequently agreed with Democrats.

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More than three-quarters of Minnesota independents said ICE should be changed in some way. About a quarter said it should be abolished, while half called for reform. Democrats were almost evenly split, with slightly more calling for reform instead of abolition and almost none saying ICE should continue operating in its current form.

About three-quarters of Minnesota independents and all but 2% of Democrats said ICE had gone too far. The effect was more pronounced in the Twin Cities metro area, where the shootings happened and protests opposing the aggressive actions flared.

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Six in 10 Minnesota independents said they strongly or somewhat supported the protests across the country. And a majority (57%) of independents blamed the Trump administration for clashes between protesters and federal immigration officers in Minnesota cities.

Independents in the state were still more supportive of Trump than those nationwide. Four in 10 said they strongly or somewhat approved of Trump’s job, and roughly the same number approved of his handling of immigration and border security. That’s about 10 points higher than for independents nationwide.

The national NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey surveyed 21,995 adults online from Jan. 27 to Feb. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The NBC News Decision Desk/KARE 11/Minneapolis Star Tribune Poll powered by SurveyMonkey surveyed 1,229 Minnesota adults online from Jan. 27 to Feb. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.