The shifting Senate map: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman digs into a major development in the battle for the Senate. Plus, Kristen Welker examines the headwinds facing the GOP as President Donald Trump kicks off his midterm tour.

— Adam Wollner

The shifting Senate map

By Bridget Bowman

A big move today from a leading Republican super PAC underscores the increasingly tough Senate landscape the party is confronting as it tries to hang on to its majority.

Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate GOP leadership, canceled its future ad spending in the Senate race in battleground North Carolina and launched a new ad effort in deep-red Kansas. (Semafor was first to report the news.)

Republicans have been pessimistic for weeks about their prospects in North Carolina, with former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leading in recent polling and outspending former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.

SLF had been heavily involved in the race: In September, it spent more than $17 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance also each traveled to the state last month to boost Whatley, whom Trump personally encouraged to run for retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat.

“I am worried about him. I hope he wins,” Trump told reporters of Whatley today. “He’s a great man.”

The GOP’s confidence is also dwindling in another swing state, Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has similarly established a clear polling and fundraising advantage over Republican Rep. Mike Collins. But one person familiar with SLF’s spending noted the group has not paused its spending in that race.

Meanwhile, in solidly Republican Kansas, the race between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive in the homestretch, even though the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. So far, SLF has reserved more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas, according to AdImpact.

The diversion of resources to Kansas reflects that the battle for Senate control has shifted to red states. Trump carried eight of the 10 states where SLF is spending money on ads from October through Election Day. Vance is set to travel to one of those states, Alaska, next week. (Keep reading below for more on Trump’s midterm travel).

Read more →

Trump broadcasts midterm anxieties as he begins a 17-state tour

Analysis by Kristen Welker

President Donald Trump doesn’t just want voters to pretend he’s on the ballot this midterm election, he is going to ask for their support in person as well.

As NBC News reported yesterday, Trump is set to travel to 17 states for 36 events in 30 days, according to a White House official. It’s an ambitious schedule that further emphasizes what the president told a crowd in Oklahoma last night: “We’re worried.”

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSHigh-profile special prosecutor takes over Cornell investigation

FOR SUBSCRIBERSMore than 10,000 ICE officers to receive additional training to reduce violent encounters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRussian dissident Garry Kasparov said FBI warned his life was in danger

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTom Cruise takes on a new mission: Selling ‘Digger’

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘I am Jane Doe’: Cornell case spurs women to share their experiences of sexual assault on campus

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA sluggish Congress punts a long list of tasks until after the election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSIt’s rarely been harder for people to find new jobs

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Some of the medication has worn off’: Witness recalls failed Tennessee execution of Christa Pike

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Couldn’t let all of them die’: Hero Indian pilot attacked midair speaks for first time

FOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s homelessness crackdown became a sweeping retreat from disability rights

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSJudge guts noncitizen voting law used in Trump administration’s election push

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump to campaign in at least 17 states ahead of the midterms

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe prosecutor at the center of the Cornell maelstrom

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSHigh-profile special prosecutor takes over Cornell investigation

FOR SUBSCRIBERSMore than 10,000 ICE officers to receive additional training to reduce violent encounters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRussian dissident Garry Kasparov said FBI warned his life was in danger

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTom Cruise takes on a new mission: Selling ‘Digger’

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘I am Jane Doe’: Cornell case spurs women to share their experiences of sexual assault on campus

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA sluggish Congress punts a long list of tasks until after the election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSIt’s rarely been harder for people to find new jobs

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Some of the medication has worn off’: Witness recalls failed Tennessee execution of Christa Pike

FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Couldn’t let all of them die’: Hero Indian pilot attacked midair speaks for first time

FOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s homelessness crackdown became a sweeping retreat from disability rights

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSJudge guts noncitizen voting law used in Trump administration’s election push

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump to campaign in at least 17 states ahead of the midterms

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe prosecutor at the center of the Cornell maelstrom

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

“We’re worried about Michigan. We’re worried about Texas. We’re worried about a few states,” Trump said, “but it’s all about 35 different contests; not states, contests. And I’m going to just about all. I’m going to Alaska.”

There are a number of factors creating obstacles for Republicans heading into Election Day, including the president’s record low approval ratings on his handling of the economy, which is the No. 1 issue for voters across the board.

Today, the final jobs report ahead of the midterms showed a slowing job market and wages lagging behind inflation. The job numbers, which were much lower than expected, come just as Trump is due to rally in many rural, blue-collar communities.

During his Oklahoma rally, he once again promised that “if the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket and the economic success for our country like you’ve never seen before,” addressing the financial pressure voters are feeling.

It’s not just the economy where Trump’s facing the headwinds — it’s immigration, too. As a candidate, he promised to oversee the “largest deportation program in American history.” But his hard-edged deportation policies have been deeply unpopular with Americans, including many of the Hispanic voters who helped him win in 2024.

So while Trump tours red states to help motivate his base, one of the key factors in determining the outcome of November’s elections will be the president’s standing with Latino and independent voters. NBC News polling averages show independents’ approval of Trump’s job performance is at just 26%.

And this Sunday on Meet the Press, Steve Kornacki will unveil the results of a new NBC News/Telemundo poll of Latino voters. I’ll also talk to former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., about the midterm fight ahead.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.