GOP super PAC cancels spending in North Carolina Senate race, shifting money to Kansas

A top Republican super PAC is canceling its ad spending in the Senate race in North Carolina and launching a new ad effort in Kansas, the latest sign the fight for the majority is shifting to red states amid an increasingly tough landscape for the GOP.

The new moves from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, were first reported by Semafor as a “pause” in spending, confirmed by two people with knowledge of the decision.

After the ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported the group was also removing funds from North Carolina, one person familiar with the decision confirmed that the group is canceling the ads planned for October.

Ad spending decisions can provide clear signals about the races parties and outside groups view as the most competitive and further out of reach.

SLF’s move to direct resources to Kansas underscores how Democrats are putting traditionally Republican states in play as they try to net four seats to take control of the Senate. Democrats will need to win multiple states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, in addition to defending seats in battleground states.

As Election Day draws closer, Democrats are growing more optimistic about their chances as Trump’s approval ratings drop and voters express frustrations with high costs and the Iran war.

The race in Kansas between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive in the homestretch, even though the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

So far, SLF has reserved more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

SLF had been actively involved in North Carolina, where former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is facing former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat. In September, the group spent more than $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance also each traveled to the state last month to boost Whatley, whom the president personally encouraged to run for the open seat.

But the decision to pause spending in North Carolina, a perennial battleground, is a sign that the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is drifting away from the GOP.

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“I am worried about him. I hope he wins,” Trump told reporters Friday of Whatley. “He’s a great man.”

Republicans have been pessimistic for weeks about their prospects in the state, with Cooper leading in recent polling and outspending Whatley.

The party’s level of confidence in their chances of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia has also been dwindling, but one person familiar with SLF’s spending noted the group has not paused its spending in that race. Trump won Georgia by just 2 points in 2024.

Still, SLF has focused the bulk of its resources on other hotly contested Senate races.

In September, SLF spent $78 million on ads in Texas through an affiliated group, and SLF itself spent nearly $33 million in Ohio. Elsewhere, the group last month spent $16 million in Michigan, $15 million in Iowa, $13 million in Maine, $10 million in Georgia, $8 million in Alaska and $5 million in New Hampshire, according to AdImpact.

In the month of October through the Nov. 3 election, SLF’s Texas group has booked $48 million in ads, while SLF is set to spend $40 million in Ohio, $18 million in Michigan, $17 million in Maine, $16 million in Georgia, nearly $14 million in Iowa, $8 million in New Hampshire and $5 million in Alaska.

Trump carried Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska all by double digits in 2024.

Even as SLF looks to spend its resources elsewhere, the North Carolina Senate candidates are still bracing for a hotly contested race.

Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin said in a statement that Cooper recently noted Democrats are often ahead “until they’re not.”

“Undecided Voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina and the majority of those Late-Breakers typically go Republican,” Griffin said. “We feel confident we have the resources to highlight Career Politician Roy Cooper’s 40 Years of Failures and win in November.”

Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen also suggested the race is still competitive, noting in a statement that a Democrat has not been elected to the Senate in North Carolina in nearly 20 years and describing North Carolina as “a 50-50 state.”

“We’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense,” Allen said.