The race for Congress: 2026 midterms
This version of Midterms - Politics and Government | NBC News Clone was adapted by NBC News Clone to help readers digest key facts more efficiently.
Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the president and his party — in this case, President Donald Trump, two years into his return to Washington. Much of the national spotlight will be on the fight for Congress. Can Democrats ride cost of living concerns and frustration with the president to majorities in the House and Senate, or do Republicans, aided by a friendly map, successfully make the case for their agenda? But there are critical contests down the ballot in each state, and a number of high-profile races for governor that could have implications for the next presidential election, as well as issues like abortion access and data centers.
Battle for control
The fight for Congress is playing out largely on Republican-held turf — districts and states that President Trump won in 2024. But historic headwinds and an increasingly gloomy political environment for the president's party have made Democrats optimistic about their ability to win, even in unexpected places.
Senate
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control. To get to a majority, Democrats must win in multiple states that Trump won, some by double digits, in 2024.
Note: Two seats are held by independents who caucus with the Democrats
About Senate race ratings
NBC News' Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.
SOLID These races are not competitive and are considered safe for one party.
LIKELY These races are not competitive. One party currently has an advantage, but the race could potentially move towards being more competitive.
LEAN These races are considered competitive, but one party currently has an advantage.
TOSS UP These races are the most competitive with either party having a good chance of winning.
House
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take back the House, a task that was complicated by Republican redistricting.
About House race ratings
NBC News' Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.
SOLID These races are not competitive and are considered safe for one party.
LIKELY These races are not competitive. One party currently has an advantage, but the race could potentially move towards being more competitive.
LEAN These races are considered competitive, but one party currently has an advantage.
TOSS UP These races are the most competitive with either party having a good chance of winning.
Latest polling
NBC News is tracking President Trump's approval rating and which party has the polling lead in the race for Congress, as well as polls across the Senate battleground.
Trump’s approval rating
This is the NBC News average of polls measuring presidential job approval, one indicator of how well the political party that controls the White House might fare in the midterms.
Approve
39%
Disapprove
59%
Control of Congress
This is the NBC News average of national polls measuring whether Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans.
Democrats
52%
Republicans
43%
More polling coverage
Senate battlegrounds
To win, Democrats must flip four Republican-held seats and hold their seats in states like Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire. A loss in any of those states would make the Democrats' path much steeper, though the national party is hopeful about Texas and Alaska, red states that the NBC News Decision Desk ratings suggest are in play.
senate Races
Mary PeltolaD
Incumbent
Dan SullivanR
Incumbent
Jon OssoffD
Mike CollinsR
Josh TurekD
Ashley HinsonR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Troy JacksonD
Incumbent
Susan CollinsR
Abdul El-SayedD
Mike RogersR
Chris PappasD
John SununuR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Roy CooperD
Michael WhatleyR
Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s old seat, is heading to a general election against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who easily won the Democratic primary. The race could be one of the most expensive and consequential in the country in the fall.
Sherrod BrownD
Incumbent
Jon HustedR
James TalaricoD
Ken PaxtonR
House battlegrounds
Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania have the largest number of competitive seats this year, though there are races to watch across the country. This is a selection of races that the NBC News Decision Desk rates as most critical to the battle for House control.
house Races
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
JoAnna MendozaD
Incumbent
Juan CiscomaniR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Randy VillegasD
Incumbent
David ValadaoR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Manny RutinelD
Incumbent
Gabe EvansR
Incumbent
Jared MoskowitzD
Scott SingerR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Christina BohannanD
Incumbent
Mariannette Miller-MeeksR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Sarah Trone GarriottD
Incumbent
Zach NunnR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Matthew DunlapD
Paul LePageR
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Sean McCannD
Incumbent
Bill HuizengaR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
William LawrenceD
Incumbent
Tom BarrettR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
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Christina HinesD
Michael BouchardR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Denise PowellD
Brinker HardingR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Rebecca BennettD
Incumbent
Thomas Kean Jr.R
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Cait ConleyD
Incumbent
Mike LawlerR
Don DavisD
Laurie BuckhoutR
Jamie AgerD
Jennifer BalkcomR
Brian PoindexterD
Incumbent
Max MillerR
Incumbent
Marcy KapturD
Derek MerrinR
Bob HarvieD
Incumbent
Brian FitzpatrickR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Bob BrooksD
Incumbent
Ryan MackenzieR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Paige CognettiD
Incumbent
Rob BresnahanR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Janelle StelsonD
Incumbent
Scott PerryR
Incumbent
Henry CuellarD
Tano TijerinaR
Incumbent
Vicente GonzalezD
Eric FloresR
Shannon TaylorD
Incumbent
Robert WittmanR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Elaine LuriaD
Incumbent
Jen KiggansR
Incumbent
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezD
John BraunR
Possible Flip
A race rated Lean or Likely for the party not currently holding the seat.
Rebecca CookeD
Incumbent
Derrick Van OrdenR
More on the midterms
Mapping the races for governor
36 Governor seats are up for election on November 3
About governor race ratings
NBC News' Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.
SOLID These races are not competitive and are considered safe for one party.
LIKELY These races are not competitive. One party currently has an advantage, but the race could potentially move towards being more competitive.
LEAN These races are considered competitive, but one party currently has an advantage.
TOSS UP These races are the most competitive with either party having a good chance of winning.
Election Shorts
MORE POLITICS COVERAGE
How NBC News Projects Races
The NBC News Decision Desk provides real-time, accurate election results as soon as they are made available by election officials, and independently analyzes vote tallies to decide when races can be projected. Projecting a winner means that the Decision Desk has determined that the trailing candidates cannot catch the leader and that the leading candidate will win the race. This determination is made through a comprehensive analysis, and the Decision Desk only projects a race when it is certain of the outcome.
How are votes counted?
In the 2026 primaries, vote data will be collected in all 50 states for statewide offices, the House of Representatives, key ballot measures and other races of national interest. The Associated Press provides election results data to NBC News and other major news organizations. Data collection is done through multiple sources on Election Day, with data reporters and interviewers across the country calling in county- and precinct-level results on a timely and rolling basis all day long. Vote data is also collected through state and county websites and feeds.
How does NBC News ensure accuracy?
Vote results are rigorously checked and verified. Part of quality control involves checking that vote data is consistent across sources, and we also compare the vote to past election results to see whether the results look extremely different across multiple past races. All projections are made independently of other outlets.
