At least 81 dead as search efforts intensify after Texas floods

As the deadly floodwaters in Texas receded, the scale of the destruction became more evident.

At Camp Mystic, where 10 girls remain missing, tears erupted for one young woman while inspecting the sleeping quarters. Debris and damaged building dotted the campgrounds.

A person salvages a bell Sunday from the main building at Camp Mystic along the banks of the Guadalupe River. Julio Cortez / AP Photo

Emotions come to the surface as people inspect an area outside sleeping quarters Sunday at Camp Mystic. Julio Cortez / AP Photo

Officials search the banks of the Guadalupe River at Camp Mystic.  Julio Cortez / AP Photo

The National Weather Service is warning of the possibility of more flash floods over the next few hours in central Texas.

“Thunderstorms are expected to increase across portions of central TX over the next few hours with areas of slow movement and locally heavy rainfall," the weather service said in a forecast discussion.

The service said 1 to 3 inches of localized hourly rainfall is expected, "leading to isolated flash flood concerns across the region."

Search efforts intensify as Texas flood rescues enter critical phase

03:24

Above the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, the Coast Guard searches for survivors, scanning for heat signatures that could lead to rescues or recovery.

The number of statewide deaths fatalities blamed on July Fourth flooding has risen to at least 81 tonight.

The numbers include two confirmed deaths in Kendall County, which is downriver from the devastation in Kerrville and Kerr County.

"It is with heavy hearts that we confirm two recoveries have been made in Kendall County, bringing our death toll to 2," Kendall County Emergency Management said in an update. "Our thoughts and prayers are with the families impacted, and we continue to stand with our neighboring counties that are experiencing devastating losses."

In Kerr County, 40 adults and 28 children are confirmed dead, in Travis County the number is six, for Burnet County it's three, and for Tom Green and Williamson counties the figure is one each.

There are still multiple people missing in Kerr County, and it's still possible the number of deaths could continue to rise rise tomorrow.

Camp Mystic said in a statement tonight that it is continuing to coordinate with local and state authorities in the search for at least 10 missing girls.

In a statement, the summer camp near the community of Hunt, which has a location on the flooded Guadalupe River, also said it continues to grieve the deaths of campers and counselors.

"Our hearts are broken alongside our families that are enduring this unimaginable tragedy. We are praying for them constantly," the statement said.

The camp thanked the community, first responders and officials for "the outpouring of support" and asked for continued prayers.

03:35

Kerrville, Texas, was one of the areas hardest hit by the July Fourth floodwaters, with 40 adults and 28 children dead in underlying Kerr County and 10 children and a summer camp counselor still missing in the area.

It's my hometown, and my family is safe — my mother evacuated as waters rose — but some friends have been affected, and there's a sense of anguish at seeing the city of more than 24,000 stunned and forever changed.

On "NBC Nightly News," I described it like this: "There really aren't the words. You cover disasters, to some degree, for a living, and then it hits your own hometown and you’re at an absolute loss."

Among those who died at Camp Mystic was a camp counselor who “had a remarkable way of making people feel seen,” the head of the school from which she had just graduated said.

Chloe Childress was “wise beyond her years, with a steady compassion that settled a room," said Jonathan Eades, head of the Kinkaid School, a pre-K-through-12th grade institution in Houston.

"Whether it was sharing her own challenges to ease someone’s burden or quietly cheering a teammate or classmate through a tough day, Chloe made space for others to feel safe, valued, and brave," Eades said in a letter to the school community.

He continued: "She was deeply invested in people and cared for those around her. She understood how important it was to take care of others at all levels — physically, emotionally, and as a community. She lost her life upholding this selfless and fierce commitment to others."

Counselors will be available at Kinkaid, Eades said.

Six people in Travis County have died as a result of the flooding in central Texas, a county spokesman said tonight.

The number of deaths across the state is now 80.

Fatal floods in Texas that left thousands scrambling for safety with little warning have sparked a fresh round of scrutiny of Trump administration cuts to the National Weather Service.

At least 80 people were dead and many others were missing this evening after floodwaters surged through Texas Hill Country, an area known as “flash flood alley.”

Within hours of the deluge early Friday, some Texas officials were critical of the NWS, saying forecasts underestimated the rainfall. Rep. Jack Kimble, D-Calif., posted a tongue-in-cheek critique Saturday on X of NWS cuts in response to a post from Vice President JD Vance. Trump today rejected the idea of investigating whether NWS cuts had left key vacancies, and the White House said claims that NWS cuts had anything to do with the tragedy were “disgusting.”

A destroyed SUV draped in a state flag sits next to the road Sunday in Hunt, Texas, after flash flooding swept through the area. Jim Vondruska / Getty Images

Independent meteorologists and a former NWS official said warnings issued in the run-up to this weekend’s flooding were about as timely and accurate as could be expected with the weather data available in real time. Predicting extreme rain and flash flooding beyond several hours is challenging, they said, and it is also not easy to ensure urgent warnings reach those most at risk.

“The forecasting was good. The warnings were good. It’s always about getting people to receive the message,” said Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist based in Wisconsin. “It appears that is one of the biggest contributors — that last mile.”

Read the full story here.

Trump says he will 'probably' visit Texas as death toll from flooding climbs

08:09

Trump didn't address reporters' questions this evening about whether he plans to phase out FEMA, saying it "is something we can talk about later."

He repeated that his administration didn't leave any important vacancies at the National Weather Service, saying the "setup" was put in place by former President Joe Biden, not him, but then he said that he wouldn't blame the last administration and that "this is a hundred-year catastrophe, and it’s just so horrible to watch."

The White House has already pushed back against the notion that the NWS was left understaffed leading up to the Central Texas floods, with critics pointing to forecasts that officials in the state said underestimated the amount of rain that ultimately fell.

Still, Trump said today as he left New Jersey for Washington that he wouldn't know whether the agency needs to hire back more meteorologists.

"This was the thing that happened in seconds. Nobody expected it; nobody saw it. Very talented people are there, and they didn’t see it," he said.

Time-lapse video captures fast-rising river in Texas

00:32

A time-lapse video captured late Friday afternoon shows how quickly floodwaters rose during heavy rain along the Llano River in Kingsland, about 95 miles east of Hunt.

The grandson of Camp Mystic’s longtime director — Dick Eastland — said his grandfather was “a dear friend, fishing buddy, hunting guide, golf partner, avid Texas Longhorns fanatic, my #1 fan, and above all else: a hero.”

His grandfather died while he was trying to rescue campers from the catastrophic floodwaters, George Eastland wrote in an Instagram tribute.

“If he wasn’t going to die of natural causes, this was the only other way, saving the girls that he so loved and cared for,” George Eastland wrote. “That’s the man my grandfather was. A husband, father, grandfather, and mentor to thousands of young women, he no longer walks this earth, but his impact will never leave the lives he touched.”

He recalled “Daddy Dicky” showing up at his first football playoff game with a “big poster” and “even bigger smile.” He praised his grandfather for being “always quick to help” the people around him.

“Although I am devastated,” George Eastland wrote, “I can’t say I’m surprised that you sacrificed your life with the hopes of someone else’s being saved.”

Officials confirmed 68 dead in Kerr County — 40 adults and 28 children. They are still working to identify 18 adults and 10 children.

From Camp Mystic, 10 children and one counselor are still unaccounted for.

The White House is pushing back against criticism that the National Weather Service was not properly staffed after some Texas officials said forecasts underestimated the amount of rain before the flooding.

Critics have blamed recent cuts by the Trump administration for affecting officials’ ability to properly warn residents in Texas about incoming flood conditions and the subsequent response to the flooding. Abigail Jackson, a White House spokesperson, told NBC News the accusations were "disgusting" lies to target political opponents.

"False claims about the NWS have been repeatedly debunked by meteorologists, experts, and other public reporting," Jackson said. "The NWS did their job, even issuing a flood watch more than 12 hours in advance."

Jackson posted a thread on X that pointed to posts and articles containing comments from some meteorologists who said NWS gave ample warnings before the flooding.

“Meteorologists Say the National Weather Service Did Its Job in Texas,” Jackson’s post said.

One of those quoted by Jackson was Avery Tomasco, a Meteorologist at CBS Austin who said the NWS “did their job and they did it well.”

Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, also told NBC News yesterday that despite unfilled leadership positions being “clearly a concern,” forecasting offices “had adequate staffing and resources” ahead of the storm.

“The WFOs [weather forecasting offices] had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm,” Fahy said.

The National Weather Service sent out a flash flood warning for Kerr County that is in effect until at least 6:30 p.m. CT.

"Tributaries of the Guadalupe River north of Ingram and Kerrville will contain a quick rise in water that will eventually add up to 2 feet of a rise along the Guadalupe River from Ingram to just downstream from Kerrville," the warning said.

Another flood warning for Kerr County said that river flooding in the North Fork area is possible and people should seek higher ground.

Officials warned that the word "recovery" is being used in more than one sense, but the search for living victims is not over yet.

Often in natural disasters, first responders use the term "rescue" to mean they are looking for living victims and switch to the term "recovery" when expectations shift from living to deceased victims.

Texas Emergency Management Chief W. Nim Kidd said "recovery operations" in the context of the flooding aftermath can mean different things such as clearing debris and opening up roads.

"We are still out there ... very much fueled by the compassion that we show for these families, that we're doing everything we can to find their missing loved ones," Kidd told reporters.

Texas Rangers are collecting DNA from unidentified victims and from family members and flying it to the University of North Texas in Dallas, where scientists will work to identify some of the deceased.

Col. Freeman Martin of the Texas Department of Public Safety said officials expect to identify victims within hours "to get some closure and information back to these families."

Camp Mystic clarified an earlier statement to say at least 27 people are missing or unaccounted for after the nearby Guadalupe River flooded.

The camp said it is working with local and state officials to try to find the missing people.

"This tragedy has devastated us and our entire community. Our hearts are broken alongside the families that are enduring this tragedy, and we share their hope and prayers," the camp's statement said.

Former President George W. Bush, who was governor of Texas from 1995 to 2000, said he and his wife are "holding up our fellow Texans who are hurting."

In a statement today, Bush wrote that his family was heartbroken over the loss of life. He thanked first responders for all their work, singling out those who are working to find the missing children at Camp Mystic and those who were along the Guadalupe River.

"Those who have lost their precious children are facing a grief no parents should ever know," Bush wrote.

Former President Barak Obama also shared condolences, writing on X that the flash flooding is "absolutely heartbreaking."

"Michelle and I are praying for everyone who has lost a loved one or is waiting for news — especially the parents," he wrote.

Scott Walden and his wife awoke Friday to what he described as an “unusual” rise of floodwaters outside their home. They escaped by jumping into the water and getting carried downstream until they grabbed onto a branch and phoned for help.

Kerrville resident recounts escape from floodwaters that overtook his home

01:01

Like others who were in homes or vacationing over the July 4 weekend at Texas’ Guadalupe River, Christian Fell, 25, was jolted awake by the crack of thunder.

It was about 3 a.m., just a couple hours since Fell had gone to sleep alone in his grandmother’s home on the river in Hunt, Texas. The rest of his family was staying upriver at another house. Then came more noise — this time sounding like a break-in — and he got out of bed.

“I get up and I swing my feet over the side of the bed and I can feel water,” Fell said.

Christian Fell, 25, stood for hours on the narrow top of a meter box, barely wide enough for both hands, to survive floodwaters that deluged his grandmother’s home. Suzanne Gamboa / NBC News

The river water that he’d normally watch from the patio of the historic stone home his grandfather built was now over his ankles — and rising fast.

He would soon learn it was dragging trees and debris that slammed against the house, tore up the patio, nearly trapped him inside and ultimately forced him to swim through a window and cling to a meter box to survive.

Read the full story here.

The Dallas Cowboys announced today that the team is donating $500,000 to help assist with rescue, recovery and relief efforts in the aftermath of the catastrophic flooding in Texas.

That sum is added to equal amounts coming from the Houston Texans and the NFL Foundation for a combined $1.5 million in disaster relief.

The Cowboys posted a statement to their social media acknowledging the destruction across Kerr County and Hill Country, including the tragic deaths that have occurred as a result.

"This has been devastating to see and we hold everyone impacted in our thoughts and prayers," the team said.

A teen camper evacuated from Camp Mystic after the deadly flooding in central Texas gave a firsthand account of the devastation.

Stella Thompson, 13, told NBC DFW her cabin lost power overnight but stayed dry. At the time, Thompson and her bunk mates weren’t aware rapidly rising water from the Guadalupe River had inundated cabins on the other side of the camp and swept away dozens of their fellow campers.

“Eventually when we got that news we were all kind of hysterical and the whole cabin was praying a lot and terrified — but not for ourselves,” Thompson said.

Read the full story here

The National Weather Service provided a timeline of its notices regarding potential flooding in south-central Texas prior to the tragic events early Friday morning.

According to the service's timeline of events, Kerrville was included in its early messages about the potential of flooding on Thursday morning. The first flood watch issued on Thursday also included Kerrville, and a flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. CT on Friday morning.

NBC News cross referenced the timeline with posts from the NWS Austin/San Antonio social media accounts.

The service went on to note that the first reports of flash flooding from the Kerr County Sheriff's Office came in at 4:35 a.m. CT, three hours after the warning went into effect.

Posts on the NWS account on Facebook that called attention to an ongoing flash flood event in Kerr County were time-stamped at 3 a.m. and 4:20 a.m., with the second post labeling it a "particularly dangerous situation" in capital letters.

The National Weather Service extended the flood watch over much of south-central Texas to 7 p.m., as several inches of rain are expected today.

A post from the service's Austin and San Antonio branch noted that while 2 to 4 inches of rain is generally expected, some pockets could receive up to 10 inches.

"It is very difficult to pinpoint where exactly the isolated heavy amounts will occur in this pattern," the NWS said.

Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., said in a post to X that his granddaughters' cousin was killed in the floods. He noted that his granddaughters were summer campers and are safe.

"Unfortunately, not everyone was as lucky. My granddaughters lost their cousin, Janie, and many other families are grieving loved ones," he said. "Please join me in prayers for Texas. We must ensure that they have the resources they need to find those still missing and save lives."

An NBC affiliate for Dallas and Fort Worth reported that four victims who were Camp Mystic campers were recovered. One of the victims was identified as Janie Hunt.

At least one person was killed in Williamson County and two people remain missing, officials said at a press conference this morning.

This brings the statewide death toll to 70.

Travis County Judge Andy Brown made a point to thank the National Weather Service for sending out alerts on Friday before the storm and during the flooding yesterday morning.

Brown shared a story at a press conference this morning of four men who survived a "very scary night" when flooding began. Water came into the men's trailers by the creek and their cars were washed away, leaving them with no real way to evacuate, Brown said.

"They told me that they received alerts about 12 noon, before this all started about midnight, and alerts throughout the night as well from the National Weather Service," Brown said.

Eric Carter, chief emergency management coordinator, described the service as being "very proactive in their warnings."

A surge of 911 calls came in between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. yesterday, according to Travis County Sheriff Sally Hernandez. But the roads were washed away so quickly that access to many of those who needed help was "completely cut off," she said.

Brown reminded residents that Travis County remain under a flash flood watch, urging them to come up with an evacuation plan and monitor for alerts.

Revonda Kirby, left, in charge of community outreach for World Central Kitchen, prepares with a colleague to deliver Jersey Mike sub sandwiches in central Texas on Sunday. Suzanne Gamboa / NBC News

World Central Kitchen, the nonprofit disaster relief group, is in the Texas Hill Country, bringing meals to families who are awaiting word about missing family or who have learned the worst.

Revonda Kirby, who handles community outreach for the disaster response group, said the organization often responds to large geographic disasters and responded to the central Texas flooding because of the “tragedy of the loss of life, even if you don’t have the displaced number of individuals that you might have from a hurricane or a tornado.”

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice avoided questions from reporters this morning on whether emergency alerts were sent about flash floods and why people weren't evacuated.

One reporter confronted Rice, noting that flash flood warnings were given on both Wednesday and Thursday. But the question of why people weren't warned or evacuated remains unanswered three days after the flooding, the reporter said.

"That is a great question, but again, we want to make sure that we continue to focus," Rice responded. "We still have 11 missing children that we want to get reunited with our families."

Another reporter asked a follow-up question on whether emergency alerts about flash floods were ever sent out to people on the Fourth of July. Rice walked away from the press conference.

"Sir, there are families who deserve better than that," a reporter shouted as Rice walked away.

President Donald Trump announced that he signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County, Texas, where at least 59 people have been killed.

The declaration, he said, would allow first responders to have access to the resources they need as they continue to work on search and recovery efforts in the aftermath of the severe flooding.

"These families are enduring an unimaginable tragedy, with many lives lost, and many still missing," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Trump signs disaster declaration for deadly Kerr County flash flooding

01:10

At least 59 people are dead in Kerr County, including 21 children, according to Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha.

The number of dead surged overnight but the number of missing children at Camp Mystic went down. Leitha said there are still 11 children from Camp Mystic unaccounted for as of this morning.

A camp counselor is also missing, Leitha said.

Of the 38 adults who were recovered, 18 are awaiting identification. Four children are also pending identification.

Kerr County officials hold update on death toll and search for Camp Mystic children 

06:53

Shakira announced that she would be donating a portion of the proceeds she made from her concert last night in San Antonio to flood victims.

She added a link in posts on X and Instagram if fans "would like to join" her in giving to the Catholic Charities of San Antonio, which is working on disaster relief.

"Dear San Antonio, Our hearts and prayers are with those affected by the flood in Central Texas," Shakira wrote.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, had a message for Texans: “Kentucky loves you. We know what you’re going through.”

Flash floods in Kentucky killed 45 people in 2022. Just this year, Kentucky was hit again with devastating floods and storms that killed more than a dozen people across February and April.

“What these families are going through right now is just pure hell, and what they need is the entire country to wrap their arms around them, to show them just pure love,” Beshear said in a CNN interview.

He urged people on the ground to stay out of flooded areas so first responders could travel more easily.

“I know they’re still searching for a lot of people, so we need to make sure that those in the boats and those in the helicopters have an unobstructed way to get to to these places,” he said.

In the sticky Texas heat with night approaching, Xavier Ramirez waited outside Calvary Temple Church hoping for a miracle — that somehow his mom, stepfather, aunt, uncle and cousin weren’t swallowed by Texas’ bloated Guadalupe River.

Ramirez, 23, from Midland, was at the church in Kerrville with weariness in his eyes. He was getting by “minute to minute, second to second,” he said.

One of his cousins, Devyn Smith, who had been at HTR Campgrounds outside Ingram when the Guadalupe River burst from its banks, had been found late Friday and was recovering at Peterson Regional Medical Center, he said.

Smith, 23, was found about 20 miles downriver outside Center Point in a tree, Ramirez said.

Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas, said that he has been heartened to see donations and support rolling in for people impacted by the floods.

“I think people are coming together,” he said in an interview on CNN. “They’re rallying to support the community and the families who have lost loved ones. It’s been very heartening, I know, for everyone to see all the donations and the support that’s come in, but just a complete tragedy.”

Castro, who represents a San Antonio-area district, said that rescue efforts could become harder if rains restart, adding that there are “hundreds and hundreds of folks out there who are searching, and hopefully their efforts will bear fruit.”

Pope Leo XIV expressed condolences to the families who lost members in the flooding of the Guadalupe River in recent days.

He also addressed those who lost their daughters at Camp Mystic, writing on X, "We pray for them." At least 27 children are still missing after floodwaters hit the camp.

Two more fatalities were confirmed in Burnet County, Texas, this morning, according to the Burnet County Sheriff's Office.

The death toll for the county is now four, with one person still missing, the sheriff's office said. This brings the statewide death toll to 53 as the south-central region continues to recover from the severe flooding.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott visited Camp Mystic yesterday, where 27 girls were unaccounted for and the body of an 8-year-old camper has been recovered.

Abbott said the camp and the river "were horrendously ravaged in ways unlike I’ve seen in any natural disaster."

"The height the rushing water reached to the top of cabins was shocking," he posted on X yesterday. "We won’t stop until we find every girl who was in those cabins."

Inside a cabin at Camp Mystic. Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP - Getty Images

Abbott expanded the state’s disaster declaration to include Bexar, Burnet, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Travis and Williamson counties.

“We will continue to add counties as needed, as conditions either worsen or improve in counties across the state of Texas,” Abbott said in a news briefing today.

Camp Mystic was hosting 750 children when the floodwaters struck.

Officials said Saturday they are continuing search-and-rescue efforts following devastating flooding across Texas.

A search-and-rescue team near Camp Mystic. Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP - Getty Images

In Kerr County, which has been the most impacted, at least 43 people are dead and 27 children remain missing tonight after floodwaters swept through Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls.

A beloved girls summer camp in Texas Hill Country is reeling after a deadly flash flood swept down the Guadalupe River on Friday, leaving families in anguish and a community clinging to hope.

Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp that has welcomed generations of girls to its riverfront grounds for 99 years, was hosting 750 children when the floodwaters struck.

People look on as law enforcement and volunteers continue to search for missing people near Camp Mystic. Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP - Getty Images

Thirty-six hours later, the scale of the disaster is still unfolding: 27 girls from the camp remain unaccounted for and the body of an 8-year-old camper has been recovered, state officials said Saturday.

Rescue teams work around the clock to find those still missing as families face a wrenching uncertainty about the fate of their daughters, who were meant to be spending an idyllic summer rowing, riding horses and playing tennis at the camp.

Read full story here.

Central Texas was inundated with several inches of rain on Friday as unstable air produced thunderstorms, but rising waters may have been punctuated by the nearly instant rush of a “flood wave.”

A flood wave is as “a rise in streamflow to a crest and its subsequent recession caused by precipitation, snowmelt, dam failure, or reservoir releases,” according to the National Weather Service.

In video posted to Facebook yesterday, verified by NBC News, a flood wave appears to roll along the Guadalupe River in Center Point, Texas.

A sheriff's deputy pauses while combing through the banks of the Guadalupe River near Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas. Julio Cortez / AP

Taken from the vantage point of the Center Point Bridge, the roaring wave appears as a broken ocean wave might appear: roiling, foamy and white. It covers the wet river bottom and instantly brings additional inches of depth to the Guadalupe as it froths along the banks.

A forecaster for NBC affiliate WOAI of San Antonio said today that flood waves of 25-40 mph can strike the Guadalupe during flash flood events.

“It’s literally a situation that’s unique to a flash flood area,” the forecaster said.

In a study of 2011 Mississippi River flooding, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers concluded that most observed flood damage was a result of an initial flood wave. They can damage structures, ruin crops and disable roads and bridges, the corps said.

The number of deaths blamed on the flooding in Texas rose to 51 yesterday.

The tally includes the latest confirmed deaths — two from Burnet County.

Kerr County has reported 28 adults and 15 children deceased, Travis County has counted four deaths, Kendall and Tom Green counties have confirmed one each, and the Burnet County Emergency Management coordinator said in a statement that two fatalities have been confirmed Saturday.

Multiple people are still missing, and the death toll could continue to rise.

Heavy downpours like the one that sent floodwaters into Texas Hill Country summer camps are expected to grow more common.

On Friday morning, some areas near the Guadalupe River received several months of rainfall in just a few hours. Six to 10 inches of rainfall fell in about three hours, according to radar analysis by Alan Gerard, a meteorologist who wrote about the recent flood event. The region usually gets about 2.1 inches of rain, on average, in July and nearly 31 inches for a year, according to NOAA data.

The effects of such extreme rainfall were exacerbated by the Hill Country’s topography. Some call the area “Flash Flood Alley,” because rainfall flows quickly down its steep limestone hills and into suddenly overflowing rivers.

Scientists expect more intense rainfall events in the future as human fossil fuel use warms the atmosphere.

A warmer atmosphere can absorb — and deliver — more water, which means the likelihood of extreme precipitation is rising. For every degree of warming in Fahrenheit, the atmosphere can hold about 3%-4% more moisture. Global temperatures in 2023 were about 2.32 degrees degrees higher than the 20th-century average, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.

In Texas, higher temperatures have already translated into more intense rainfall. In a 2024 report, Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon wrote that on average, “extreme one day precipitation has increased by 5% to 15% since the latter part of the 20th century” in the region. By 2036, Nielsen-Gammon wrote, he expected an additional increase of about 10% in rainfall intensity.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, said on the social media platform X that this was “precisely” the kind of rainfall event scientists expect to become more common in a warming climate.

“It’s not a question of whether climate change played a role — it’s only a question of how much,” Swain said.