The 10 Senate races that will decide the balance of power in 2026

The fight for the Senate is expanding to a few more states next year, as both parties tout talented candidates and point to political dynamics tilting in their favor.

Democrats still face an uphill battle to net the four seats they need to take control of the Senate, which would involve winning at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. But they see a glimmer of hope following victories in the 2025 elections and as Trump’s approval rating, particularly on his handling of the economy, has dropped.

And Democrats believe they can capitalize on issues such as high costs and health care, while Republicans continue to struggle to turn out Trump’s supporters when he is not on the ballot.

Republicans, though, remain confident that they will hold onto the Senate —and potentially even grow their majority, given the GOP’s recent success in states with the most competitive Senate races next year. And they’re optimistic the party will be able to run on Trump’s accomplishments, suggesting voters will begin to reap the benefits of Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending legislation ahead of voting in November 2026.

Both parties will have to contend with potentially divisive and costly primaries, which could further shake up the Senate landscape.

So far, the battle for the Senate majority is playing out across 10 key races. Here's what the map looks like.

It has been clear since the start of the election cycle that the fight for the Senate would center on four crucial states: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.

Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state then-Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, when the Democrat carried Maine by nearly 7 points. Collins is also the only GOP senator in New England and, Republicans say, the party's only candidate who could win the Maine Senate race next year. Collins won re-election in 2020 by 9 points even as Trump lost the state by a similar margin.

Collins has not yet officially launched her campaign, but she said at a recent Punchbowl News event, “I still plan to run for re-election.”

She won’t know her opponent until June, with Democratic Gov. Janet Mills facing off against military veteran Graham Platner in the Democratic primary.

Mills has pitched herself as the candidate best positioned to beat Collins, touting her clashes with Trump and her record as the only Democrat to win a statewide race in Maine in 20 years. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has set up a joint fundraising committee with Mills, signaling that party leaders view Mills as the strongest candidate.

Platner, meanwhile, has made his case as the anti-establishment candidate and staunch progressive with the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. He said his campaign has been “strengthened” by recent controversies, including revelations that he had a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol, which he has since covered up, and past Reddit posts that included a slew of controversial and offensive comments. Platner apologized for many of the posts, saying he was “disillusioned” after his military service.

Both parties believe they have strong recruits to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and this race is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate contests next year.

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running, while Republicans have tapped former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Both candidates are already in general election mode, though Whatley — who has Trump’s endorsement — did draw a last-minute primary challenge from Michele Morrow, a far-right candidate who lost a bid to be the state’s top education official last year.

Trump has been successful in North Carolina, the only battleground the president has won three times, and he carried it by 3 points last year. But Democrats believe Cooper’s popularity and winning record, as well as key issues like health care, could paint a North Carolina Senate seat blue for the first time since 2008.

Jon Ossoff, the only Senate Democrat running for re-election in a state Trump won, is Republicans’ top target next year. The first-term senator has been raising millions and focusing on issues including health care, the economy and corruption. But Republicans believe they can cast Ossoff as a far-left progressive, pointing to some of his positions on immigration, impeachment and the government shutdown.

GOP Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to pass on a Senate run sparked a three-way GOP primary between Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has Kemp’s endorsement. Trump, who won Georgia by 2 points in 2024, has not yet weighed in on the primary.

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement opened up the Senate race in this battleground state. Republicans, led by Trump, have coalesced around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a close Senate race last year even as Trump won Michigan by 1 point.

The Democratic primary is a three-way race between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a self-described “pragmatist,” and progressive physician Abdul El-Sayed. The primary has already exposed divisions on the future of the state’s manufacturing sector and support for Israel, and the nominee won’t be decided until August.

The Senate battle could extend beyond the core four states in part thanks to candidates the parties think can bend results away from the norm in a few states.

Democrats scored a big recruiting win when former Sen. Sherrod Brown decided to challenge GOP Sen. Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to the Senate after JD Vance resigned to serve as vice president.

Brown is widely viewed as one of the only Democrats who could make the special election to serve the final two years of Vance’s term competitive. The former senator lost re-election by nearly 4 points last year as Trump won Ohio by 11 points.

Operatives in both parties say the race is now expected to draw significant resources after ad spending in last year’s Senate race reached more than $480 million, according to AdImpact.

With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retiring, both parties are eyeing New Hampshire as an open, competitive Senate race next year after Harris won the Granite State by 3 points.

Senate Republican leaders have backed former Sen. John Sununu, who lost to Shaheen in 2008. But Sununu is running in the primary against Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and Trump ambassador, and that nominating fight won’t be resolved until early September.

Rep. Chris Pappas is considered the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary, and Democrats believe his deep ties to the state and proven ability to win competitive races put them in a strong position to hold the seat.

Other potentially competitive Senate races in redder or bluer states hinge on the outcomes of contentious primaries — and whether potentially strong candidates actually decide to run.

Both parties are navigating hotly contested Senate primaries early next year — though the Republican primary is expected to go past March 3, with none of the candidates likely to win a majority of the vote given the three-way race between Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

If no one wins a majority of the primary vote, the top two vote-getters would advance to a May runoff.

All three candidates have stressed their loyalty to Trump in the primary, which has already seen millions of dollars in ads. That spending has mostly come from Cornyn allies who believe he is best positioned to prevail in a state Trump won by 14 points last year. Trump, so far, is staying on the sidelines.

The Democratic primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico has become a battle over the best path forward for the party. Crockett has taken direct aim at Trump and said she can energize a “multiracial, multigenerational coalition,” including many people who haven't previously voted, while Talarico has said he can appeal to voters in both parties who are “hungry for sincerity and honesty and compassion.”

There is also a contested Democratic primary in Iowa, where GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. State Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, as well as state Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage are all competing for their party's nomination. Despite recent Republicans’ gains in the state, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, Democrats believe the race could be competitive as Iowans grapple with health care access and Trump’s tariff policies.

Republicans, including Trump, quickly coalesced around Rep. Ashley Hinson as their candidate to replace Ernst. Hinson, who flipped a Democratic district in 2020, is viewed as a rising star in the party.

Democrats are waiting to see if former Rep. Mary Peltola, who represented the entire state of Alaska in Congress, will jump into the race against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola has also been eyeing a run for governor, after losing re-election last year by 3 points as Trump won Alaska by 13 points.

Sullivan has signaled that he recognizes he could have a competitive race, particularly as health care emerges as a top midterm issue. The two-term senator recently supported a Democratic proposal to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for an additional three years.

Republicans are waiting on a top-tier candidate in Minnesota, which Trump lost by 4 points last year.

Michele Tafoya, a longtime NFL sideline reporter-turned-conservative commentator, is considering a run for Senate, according to three sources familiar with her thinking. One source said Tafoya met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier in December and could make a final decision in January. Former professional basketball player Royce White and retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are also running.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are battling to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, with Flanagan casting herself as the progressive candidate and Craig stressing her bipartisan appeal.