Rep. Wesley Hunt has submitted his paperwork to run for the Senate in Texas on Tuesday, officially kicking off the most heated and headache-inducing primary for Senate Republicans as they defend their majority next year.
Hunt signed the paperwork solidifying his Senate run Tuesday morning, according to his campaign, six weeks after he launched his Senate campaign, ending speculation that he might drop out with the state’s Dec. 8 filing deadline fast approaching. The race already includes GOP Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans involved in the Texas contest and Senate races believe Hunt’s candidacy all but ensures none of the three contenders will win a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary.
That would extend the already pricey primary race to a May 26 runoff, with the top two vote-getters competing for the nomination. That would prolong an intraparty fight when Republicans would rather be taking aim at Democrats and drain resources that could be used for a potentially competitive general election.
More than $50 million has already been spent in the GOP primary on ads, mostly by pro-Cornyn groups, according to the ad-tracking from AdImpact. And there could be more to come.
“Just wait,” Cornyn told NBC News as he left the Senate last week. “We’ve only begun to fight.”
Trump looms large
The biggest question looming over the primary is whether President Donald Trump will pick a favorite. Cornyn and Senate Republican leaders have urged him to back Cornyn as they view Paxton as a problematic general election candidate with multiple controversies. But Paxton and Hunt are also staunch Trump allies.
Trump has not decided whether he will weigh in on the race or for whom, a senior administration official told NBC News. The official noted that Trump and White House staff members are being bombarded on all sides fighting for the endorsement.
Meanwhile, Cornyn’s allies are taking aim at Hunt, noting that he has persistently been in third place in public polling and their internal surveys, including a recent poll from Ragnar Research Partners commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., that is backing Cornyn.
That poll found Cornyn leading the primary field with support from 32% of likely voters, followed by Paxton at 31% and Hunt at 21%, with 16% undecided. The survey was conducted Nov. 13-16 and has a 4-point margin of sampling error, according to a memo shared with NBC News.
“Broadly speaking we feel good about where we are,” said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to the Cornyn campaign.
“Sen. Cornyn’s support is going to rise as we continue to execute our plan,” he added later.
Hunt’s campaign, meanwhile, touted a new poll in a news release Monday from a pro-Hunt super PAC. The survey, which was conducted Friday and Saturday by Stratus Intelligence and has a 3.3-point margin of error, found 36% of likely voters backing Paxton, 26% backing Hunt, 25% backing Cornyn and 14% undecided.
Hunt told NBC News in a statement that he is “now firmly in second place.”
“At this point, defending Cornyn has nothing to do with protecting the majority,” Hunt said. “If Republicans are serious about keeping this seat red, they must rally behind the candidate who is surging in the primary and outperforming every Democrat in the general; that candidate is me.
“Washington’s attempt to force John Cornyn onto Texas voters has been an exercise in futility, and now that he’s in last place, it’s indefensible,” he added.
A 'five-alarm' fire
Amid the flurry of polls, one thing is clear even with more than three months to go until the primary: This race appears headed to a runoff.
A Republican involved in Senate races likened concerns about the primary to a “five-alarm” fire, with a runoff potentially playing into Democrats’ hands by delaying the GOP's focus on a general election and diverting funds to a primary that could be used against Democrats. That is particularly problematic in Texas, which is an expensive state with multiple major media markets.
“The only beneficiary in that scenario is Chuck Schumer,” the Republican said, referring to the Senate Democratic leader from New York. Democrats have their own primary to contend with, too, as former Rep. Colin Allred faces off against state Rep. James Talarico.
Trump carried Texas last year by 14 percentage points, expanding on his 6-point win in 2020, when Cornyn won a fourth Senate term by 10 points. But Democrats have long argued that they can win Texas, and they’ve been bolstered by signs of enthusiasm that fueled sweeping victories this month in Virginia, New Jersey, California and other states.
“That electability and competence argument got a lot stronger after the election results,” Mackowiak, the Cornyn campaign adviser, said as Cornyn continues to insist that he is the party’s best pick to win a general election given the controversies that have swirled around Paxton.
The GOP-controlled state House impeached Paxton in 2023 amid allegations of bribery and misusing his office, and the state Senate later acquitted him. Paxton, who denied any wrongdoing amid his impeachment trial, is also divorcing his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, who said over the summer that she filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.”
The Paxton campaign declined to comment, but an adviser told NBC News that he is in a strong position, particularly as Hunt’s entrance has shifted the focus of the race to Cornyn and Hunt’s battle to make a runoff.
Cornyn and his allies have also recently made an additional case that he is best-positioned to boost Republicans farther down the ballot.
Asked about his pitch to Trump, Cornyn told CBS News Texas this month: “We’ve got five new congressional districts and who’s at the top of the ballot matters. If you have a strong candidate who’s able to help lift voter turnout, I think we have a better chance at electing Republicans in each of those five new congressional districts.”
Cornyn’s allies also commissioned an analysis from Deep Root Analytics, shared with NBC News and first reported by Axios, suggesting that Paxton could drag down House Republican candidates in the state’s new congressional map, which the Supreme Court temporarily reinstated amid an ongoing court battle.
The analysis found a generic Republican candidate leading in five of the new House districts and suggested that Paxton could lose three of them or significantly underperform a typical Republican and that he could even struggle in more GOP-leaning districts.
The Texas redistricting effort has been a top priority for Trump, and the senior administration official noted that Trump has worked hard to ensure Republicans control the House. But the official said the downballot argument is not likely to influence Trump’s decision to endorse in the race.
Paxton’s adviser dismissed Cornyn’s downballot drag argument by suggesting Cornyn is “trying to grasp for straws.” And the adviser noted that the redistricting fight could actually boost Paxton’s standing among conservatives, since, as state attorney general, he is fighting to uphold the map in court.
Paxton’s team has been in touch with the White House on the redistricting case and the Senate race, keeping Trump’s team updated with recent polling, the adviser said. Mackowiak also said Cornyn “communicates directly with the president on a regular basis.”
Hunt is also vying for Trump’s endorsement, having launched some small ad buys on cable in the West Palm Beach, Florida, media market when Trump was recently at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Hunt told CNN that even as Senate leadership has pushed back on his campaign, no one in the White House has discouraged him from running.
Hunt’s campaign also recently launched his second statewide TV ad in Texas, casting him as the staunchest Trump ally in the race.
“When they attacked President Trump, some stood on the sidelines, but Wesley Hunt stood by his side, the first to endorse, the first to fight,” a narrator says.
Hunt’s campaign and an allied super PAC have spent more than $7.2 million on ads so far, according to AdImpact, while pro-Cornyn groups, including the Lone Star Freedom Project and Texans for a Conservative Majority, have spent roughly $40 million.
Cornyn’s allies have touted Cornyn’s votes to support Trump’s policies, but they have also taken aim at Hunt and Paxton.
Texans for a Conservative Majority recently launched an ad knocking Hunt’s absences from votes, dubbing him “Mr. No Show.” Hunt has attributed his absences to the birth of his son and his work on the 2024 campaign trail, and he dismissed absences this year to CNN by attacking Cornyn’s voting record.
The pro-Cornyn group is also attacking Paxton on the airwaves with an ad saying he “broke the law, cashed in on public service, and you pay the price,” pointing to the bribery allegations and reports that Paxton’s net worth has increased during his time in office.
Hunt has signaled that he is unlikely to attack Paxton on the same grounds, instead taking aim at Cornyn.
Paxton, meanwhile, is biding his time as polls continue to show him in a strong position to nab a runoff spot, with multiple public polls showing him leading the field. The Paxton adviser said the campaign is not expected to launch ads anytime soon.
