President Donald Trump said that Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated" last summer, but he's now threatening to bomb Iran again over its nuclear ambitions.
As American forces mass in the region, he and his administration have offered varying assessments of Iran's military capabilities and intentions. In the latest turn after many zigzags, on Tuesday night Trump spelled out what he called the Islamic Republic’s “sinister nuclear ambitions.”
These and other threats to the U.S. were quickly dismissed by Tehran as “a series of big lies.”
Trump's remarks in this State of the Union address followed weeks of mixed messages from Washington on the reasons for the U.S. military buildup in the region and the urgency of Iran’s nuclear threat. The Trump administration is simultaneously pursuing the diplomacy channel, which will see the two sides meet for a new round of talks on Thursday.
Iran denies seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, claiming its nuclear program is peaceful and intended for energy production, and has warned of significant retaliation to even a limited attack by the U.S. or Israel.
What Trump said
Trump initially threatened to intervene over the deadly crackdown on nationwide unrest in Iran last month, but in recent weeks his public threats have focused on the country's nuclear program.
U.S. officials have recently suggested that despite last summer's attack, Iran is in fact very close to having the ability to make nuclear weapons.
The Operation Midnight Hammer was successful, Trump said toward the end of his speech, but he added that despite being "warned to make no future attempts to rebuild" its nuclear weapons program, Tehran had been "starting it all over."
An initial U.S. assessment after the June operation found that only one nuclear enrichment site had been mostly destroyed, while the other two targeted were likely degraded, setting progress back several months.
Trump also said in his speech Tuesday that while Iran had expressed a desire to make a deal during negotiations, “we haven’t heard those secret words, 'We will never have a nuclear weapon.'”
He said his “preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy,” but vowed to never “allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.”
He also outlined why this may be so pressing.
“They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” Trump said.
Iran condemned Trump's remarks as "lies," with foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei invoking a comparison to Nazi propaganda.
“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth is a law of propaganda coined by Nazi Joseph Goebbels," Baghaei said, referring to the infamous Nazi propaganda chief. "This is now systematically used by the U.S. administration and the war profiteers encircling it."
Iran is developing launch vehicles that would allow intercontinental ballistic missiles to hit the U.S., according to a recent report by the Department of Defense's Defense Intelligence Agency.
Iran could have 60 ICBMs capable to reach every part of the U.S. homeland by 2035, the DIA said, though it added that this would only be the case “should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”
It was not clear if Trump's comments Tuesday reflected the U.S. government acknowledging that Iran had in fact decided to pursue that capability, or if they could now do so more quickly than previously assessed.
The CIA declined to comment on the matter.
Iran’s nuclear capability
Iran has consistently maintained that it does not have nuclear weapons ambitions.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that stance Tuesday, saying that Iran would "under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon." At the same time, he said the country would not forgo its "right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people."
Trump pulled the U.S. out of a landmark Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 during his first term in office, three years after Tehran had agreed to stop pursuing a nuclear weapons arsenal and allow international checks on its facilities in exchange for the U.S. and other nations rolling back sanctions.
Before the U.S. and Israel attacked last year, Iran had developed a stockpile of uranium enriched to nearly the level of purity needed to build a bomb, already well beyond the level needed for civilian energy production.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned in 2024 that Tehran was “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium up to 60% purity, inching closer to the around 90% level that constitutes weapons grade.
Grossi has indicated that the program was severely damaged by the U.S. and Israeli strikes, but that much of the regime's highly enriched uranium was likely moved before the attacks.
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff asserted on Saturday that Iran could be as close as a week away from having “industrial-grade bomb-making material,” saying its enrichment level was “up to 60%.”
Tehran said it considered the claims a “verbal mistake.”
Having highly enriched uranium does not mean having a weapon, said Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow with the Proliferation and Nuclear Policy program at the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, a London-based think tank.
It's just one step in a complex chain, she said in a phone interview Tuesday. "Just enriching to 90% isn't enough. You need to actually build the nuclear warhead. You need to put it on the delivery system," she added.
Even if Iran were a week away from having “industrial-grade bomb-making material,” Dolzikova noted that military action and "counterproliferation strikes" are not always decisive responses, pointing to the strikes in June.
Kelsey Davenport, the director for nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said there appeared to be "little indication, if any" of testing and development in Iran of a missile capable of targeting the U.S. "If Iran does intend to do that, I think it's years away," she added.
That speaks to questions about U.S. goals in the standoff.
Is Trump using the threat of military action to force Iran into more incremental concessions on its nuclear program? His State of the Union speech hinted at a broader desire to constrain Iran's offensive capabilities, as Israel has pushed. But the downfall of the regime and the removal of the country's leaders could represent an even more maximalist — and unpredictable — aim.
The brinkmanship comes at a time when “Iran is weakened,” with its “domestic legitimacy, economy in shambles” and “air defenses shattered” from both U.S. and Israeli strikes last year, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute.
“There’s clearly a sense in Washington and also, I think, reinforced by Jerusalem, that Iran is at its weakest point that it has been in decades,” said Ross Harrison, a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute and author of "Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy."
“And therefore, this is the time to push it over the edge towards some kind of regime collapse or erosion.”
