Live updates: Hurricane Isaias strengthens as it storms closer to the Gulf Coast
This version of Live Updates Hurricane Isaias Tropical Storm Gulf Coast Rcna602198 - Weather and Climate | NBC News Clone was adapted by NBC News Clone to help readers digest key facts more efficiently.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season is forecast to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast as soon as Friday.
What to know about Hurricane Isaias
- Isaias strengthened into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season overnight as it surged toward the U.S. Gulf Coast today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
- Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph or stronger, before it makes landfall.
- Forecasters are warning of "dangerous, life-threatening" conditions along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning tomorrow and into the weekend.
- The U.S. National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. Forecasters said dangerous storm surge could affect an even wider area, from southeast Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend. Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.
Isaias seen churning from space
Satellite imagery from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere shows the full scope of the storm.
National Hurricane Center leans on AI to help predict path of Isaias
As then-tropical storm Isaias developed off the Gulf coast on Tuesday, National Hurricane Center forecasters faced an interesting dilemma. Forecasting models were predicting the storm would take a big turn, but they differed substantially on how sharp that turn might be and how quickly it might happen.
How the turn played out would determine whether the storm ultimately struck the Gulf Coast closer to Louisiana or Florida.
“A turn toward the northeast and north is predicted by Friday,” forecasters wrote at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday. “There remains significant … spread in the track guidance regarding this northward turn.”
Artificial intelligence models, including Google DeepMind, were predicting Isaias would develop into a hurricane and veer eastward — rightward if facing the Gulf shore, forecasters wrote on Tuesday. Other conventional models favored a less aggressive turn that would keep the storm to the west.
By Thursday morning, Isaias had developed into a hurricane and forecasters had decided to lean more heavily on the track predicted by Google, calling it one of the “best performing track guidance” models this year.
So far, the forecast seems to be proving them prudent — the hurricane appears to be tracking closer to the initial AI-based predictions. The latest NHC forecast suggests the storm will strike somewhere in eastern Mississippi, southern Alabama or the western portion of the Florida panhandle.
Last year, DeepMind outperformed conventional models for hurricane track and intensity, according to analysis by Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
Isaias is the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, so this represents the first high-stakes tests of AI’s prediction prowess so far.
Pensacola International Airport to close ahead of Isaias
The Pensacola International Airport announced that it will close its commercial operations starting tomorrow morning.
"The safety of our passengers and airport community is our top priority," the airport posted to social media. "Pensacola International Airport’s terminal will close to commercial operations at 10:00 a.m. Central Time on Friday, October 9."
Kemp declares state of emergency for Georgia
Gov. Brian Kemp formally declared a state of emergency for Georgia ahead of Hurricane Isaias' arrival.
“As we always do with weather events, we’re hoping for the best but preparing for the worst," Kemp said in a statement today.
“I encourage all Georgians to take this storm seriously and prepare now by stocking up on food, batteries, flashlights, water, and other necessities in case of severe weather impacting communities Friday night through Saturday,” he said.
Kemp's order enables emergency management teams to make necessary arrangements and position resources ahead of the storm.
Shelves emptying as people in Florida, Mississippi prep for the storm
Shoppers at some stores in Pensacola, Florida, and Lucedale, Mississippi, discovered empty shelves yesterday ahead of the pending storm.
Hurricane Isaias still moving at 10 mph
As of the National Hurricane Center's 2 p.m. ET update, the storm is still moving north-northeast at 10 mph with 85 mph winds.
Isaias is currently 355 miles south of the Mississippi River.
DeSantis says Florida preparing for a Category 3 storm
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday that the state has declared a state of emergency and is preparing for Hurricane Isaias to make landfall as a Category 3 storm.
Alicia Devine / Tallahassee Democrat via Reuters
"But most people don’t believe it will be that strong when it hits," DeSantis said.
He said that if the storm hits Mobile, Alabama, Florida is expected to get a lot of storm surge.
"The entire panhandle will have some impacts from this," DeSantis said. "We have people staged for search and rescue, utilities are on high alert for rapid power restoration. Local communities are issuing evacuation orders."
"I’ve learned each storm is different," DeSantis continued. "Ian was massive, was producing storm surge. Helene didn’t even hit the west coast, but produced storm surge before it entered big bend."
DeSantis told those who are in the path of the storm to listen to their local emergency management departments on what to do. He said he expects "nasty weather" on Friday and Saturday.
FSU shuts down main campus ahead of storm
Florida State University's Tallahassee campus will close its campus tomorrow. Essential business operations will remain open.
The university said it expects to reopen fully on Monday, and that it expects many weekend events to be canceled due to the storm.
Tropical storm watches now extend into central Alabama and western Georgia
The last time central Alabama was under a tropical storm watch was for Zeta in late October 2020.
Florida counties issue mandatory evacuation notices ahead of hurricane
Those who live in both Franklin County and Walton County, Florida, must evacuate the areas before Isaias makes landfall tomorrow.
Joe Raedle / Getty
Evacuations in Franklin County begin at 12 p.m. today, and county officials recommend that everyone is out by tomorrow morning. The notice is especially urgent for all Barrier Islands, Alligator Point, Bald Point, low-lying areas, mobile homes and recreational vehicle, or RV, parks, according to a post from the county’s emergency management team. Further evacuations may be announced.
The county is expecting 5-10 inches of rain, 4-6 feet of storm surge, possible tornadoes and a chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds, the post said.
Those who need evacuation transportation can call (850) 653-8977 by 5 p.m.
In Walton County, the evacuation notice is for zones A, B and C and begins at 12 p.m. CT, the county's emergency management department said.
"No, no one is coming to your home and forcing you out," the Walton County Fire Rescue said in a post. "It means that once conditions become unsafe, first responders will likely not be able to respond in zones A, B, and C until the storm has passed. If you stay and something goes wrong, you could be on your own until the storm passes."
Gas prices face new threat as Isaias forces Gulf oil shutdowns
Major oil companies including Chevron and Shell have begun shutting down some oil production sites in the path of the storm, while some refineries are likely to see flooding depending on where it ultimately makes landfall, experts said.
That helped push oil prices higher today. Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices surged nearly 5% in early trading, alongside reports that President Donald Trump was considering renewed attacks against Iran. U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.36, down slightly from a week ago but still up $0.21 over the past month.
Oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Galveston, Texas, in 2023. LM Otero / AP
All told, approximately 25% of Gulf oil production had been suspended as of this morning, according to the U.S. Marine Minerals Administration.
“This could not have come at a worse time as gasoline and diesel inventories are quite low,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC consultancy, wrote in a note yesterday.
Isaias getting stronger as it slowly moves north
The National Hurricane Center says Isaias is getting stronger as it trudges north toward the Gulf Coast.
The agency recommended in its 11 a.m. ET update that those in the danger zone prepare for intense winds and dangerous storm impacts.
The storm is currently moving east-northeast at 10 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is expected to turn toward the northeast later today followed by another turn north tomorrow.
Hurricane warnings are still in effect from Ocean Springs in Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida.
Storm preparations underway
Hurricane Isaias surges toward the Gulf Coast and is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm. NBC News’ Jesse Kirsch reports from Pensacola Beach, Florida, where preparations are underway after the state declared a state of emergency for 25 counties.
Isaias formed late in the season
Isaias is developing more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season, nearly tying a 121-year-old record for the area’s latest-forming hurricane. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the year’s first Atlantic hurricane formed Oct. 8.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon formed yesterday off Mexico.
After Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE’-ahs, according to the hurricane center) became a tropical storm yesterday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico, communities in its potential path worked quickly to prepare. Some Gulf oil wells paused production, while governors in Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency for dozens of counties.
Isaias is expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that’s very familiar with major hurricanes.
One of the 20th century’s worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.
Florida State University’s Panama City campus closed today and tomorrow
The Panama City campus of Florida State University will be closed today and tomorrow due to Hurricane Isaias, FSU said in a social media statement this morning.
The FSU Collegiate School in Panama City will also be closed today and tomorrow.
All classes, events and campus activities are canceled, the school said, but essential business operations will continue.
FSU said it expects to resume normal business operations and open the school again Monday.
Ivey, DeSantis get ready for storm with emergency declarations
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, saying in a post on X, “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take preparations seriously.”
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state’s emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy disaster responders and equipment. The state is also planning to deploy a Miami-based urban search-and-rescue task force.
Storm tracker: Hurricane Isaias
Expected impacts from Hurricane Isaias
Storm surge and flooding and tornadoes, oh, my! Here is what you can expect to happen in your city after Hurricane Isaias makes landfall tomorrow night.
Storm surge totals:
- Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida: 5-7 feet
- Mobile Bay, Alabama: 5-7 feet
- Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi: 5 feet
- Indian Pass, Florida, to Steinhatchee River, Florida: 4-6 feet
- Steinhatchee River, Florida, to Yankeetown, Florida: 2-4 feet
- Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana: 1-3 feet
Rainfall totals:
- Southeastern Louisiana to western Florida Panhandle: 3-7 inches, with locally up to 10 inches.
- Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and the Carolinas: 1-3 inches, with locally up to 5 inches.
- Washington to New York City: 1-2 inches of rain will be possible from remnant tropical moisture.
Possible tornadoes:
- Isolated tornadoes are possible tomorrow night in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and far-southwestern Georgia.
- The tornado threat will continue Saturday for eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.
- Isaias could be a prolific tornado producer, so this risk may increase as the forecast comes into better focus.
What to expect from Isaias
Isaias has rapidly intensified, going from a 40 mph tropical storm to an 80 mph Category 1 hurricane in 24 hours.
Hurricane Isaias now has 80 mph winds. It is located 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving east-northeast at 9 mph.
Storm surge warnings and hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend 15 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles from the center.
On the current forecast track, Isaias is expected to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by early tomorrow morning. Tropical storm conditions will arrive along the coast by tomorrow afternoon, and hurricane conditions by tomorrow night.
Landfall is expected late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning between Mobile and Panama City and likely near or over Pensacola. Isaias is expected to weaken rapidly as it approaches landfall, but as it weakens, the storm will expand, widening its wind footprint.
Isaias will be a fast-moving hurricane and accelerating as it reaches the coast. This means strong winds can reach far inland, increasing the risk of tree damage and power outages through Alabama and into Tennessee. Montgomery, Birmingham, Huntsville, Nashville and Memphis are inland cities to watch for strong winds.
This also means the worst impacts will last only a short time before conditions improve rapidly as the storm moves away.
Isaias strengthens into Category 1 hurricane
Isaias is currently 420 miles south-southwest of Mississippi and moving northeast at 9 mph with 80 mph winds — and rapidly intensifying.
Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect from Panama City to Biloxi, with several tropical storm watches as the storm track moves inland.
The storm is set to progress into a Category 2 storm by tomorrow and make landfall late tomorrow night into Saturday morning with 65 mph winds. Isaias could become a low-level Category 3 storm at some point tomorrow.
Storm surges of 3 to 7 feet are a major concern. Up to 10 feet of flooding is expected in some areas, but even more could accumulate. Large, battering waves will also cause beach erosion.
Strong winds of 70-80 mph are expected to cause widespread damage and power outages.
Tornado risk extends as far as Columbus, Georgia. Cities east of the hurricane's track are most at risk.
Oil and gas producers shut down a share of offshore production
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.
As of yesterday, about 25% of the oil production in the region was temporarily halted, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms were evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
“I would characterize the oil market risk as moderate, but rising,” Burkhard said in an email.
Isaias is gaining strength as the hurricane closes in on the Gulf Coast. States of emergency have been declared in Alabama and Florida.
Beyond powerful winds, storm may bring tornadoes, battering waves and inundating surge
The hurricane is forecast to track northeastward before turning north, approaching the northern Gulf Coast late tomorrow into early Saturday.
Hurricane watches are in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, with storm surge watches stretching from the mouth of the Mississippi River eastward to Florida’s Nature Coast.
City employees removing lifeguard towers in Panama City Beach, Fla., yesterday. Tyler Orsburn / USA Today via Reuters
Isaias is expected to bring significant rainfall and flooding concerns along with powerful winds, tornadoes, battering waves and inundating surge.
Widespread totals of 3 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches, are possible from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, while heavier rain bands may spread inland across the Southeast, the Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
