Hurricane Lowell is expected to create life-threatening conditions even as it is forecast to pass just west of the major Hawaiian islands by Monday night.
It could remain a major hurricane — those with 111 mph or greater sustained winds — and is likely to create mudslides, as much as 10 inches of rain in Kauai, and life-threatening waves for parts of the island chain, the National Hurricane Center said.
Lowell turned north Sunday, as a hurricane warning for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument was issued. By Sunday evening, Kauai County, which covers the islands of Kauai and Niʻihau, was placed under a hurricane watch.
Lowell was about 500 miles south-southwest of the community of Līhuʻe, on the westernmost major Hawaiian island of Kauai, according to the hurricane center’s Sunday evening advisory, and was moving at 9 mph.
The tropical cyclone reached Category 5, defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or greater, overnight Friday before losing some of its steam and settling into Category 4’s limits of sustained winds of 130-156 mph by Saturday. On Sunday, its 120 mph sustained winds placed it in Category 3.
The hurricane center’s forecast cone has Lowell passing just west of the archipelago’s major islands, from south to north, on Monday night.
“Just because we’re on the edge of the cone doesn’t mean we’re safe,” John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said at a Friday news conference.
Maui could record up to 8 inches of rain, the National Hurricane Center said, but officials in the state are also focused on the storm’s impacts on Kauai and Niʻihau, the latter occupying the map as the archipelago’s 84-resident, westernmost island.
“Hurricane Lowell has made its expected northward turn and remains forecast to pass west of Kauaʻi, but a slight shift east has increased the potential for tropical storm-force winds,” Gov. Josh Green said Sunday on X. “The greatest impacts are expected Monday, particularly on Kauaʻi and Niʻihau.”
The state’s Emergency Management Agency said Sunday that tropical storm conditions were expected in Kauai County in the next 36 hours, while Ni‘ihau, Kauai and the surfing mecca of Oahu could see “extremely dangerous surf” on south- and west-facing coastlines Monday and Tuesday.
Niʻihau and Kauaʻi could see 12 to 14 inches of rain, it said, with downpours expected to begin Sunday afternoon and flash flooding and landslides possible.
On Friday, Green declared a state of emergency for Hawaii and activated the National Guard to respond to the storm’s impacts.
“We are taking Hurricane Lowell extremely seriously and preparing now, before conditions deteriorate,” Green said in a statement Friday. “I urge everyone, especially those in Kauaʻi County, to complete their preparations, follow official alerts and stay away from floodwaters, dangerous surf and other hazardous areas.”
The governor’s office said the state was securing its harbors, deploying emergency personnel to strategic locations and monitoring dams for any possible breaches or overflows.
Parts of Oahu and the Big Island were hit with intense flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Lala last month.
Lowell is joined by two other tropical cyclones spinning in the northern half of the Pacific this week: Tropical Storm Karina, a former Category 4 hurricane about 655 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on Sunday; and Hurricane Marie, churning about 550 miles west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico, and producing 75 mph sustained winds — a hair above the threshold for Category 1 status.
Marie is producing high surf that could bring life-threatening waves and rip currents to some Southern California locations during the holiday weekend, hurricane center meteorologists said Sunday.
The trio is part of a northeast Pacific hurricane season that includes 15 named storms to date, according to Colorado State University. The high number is likely boosted by unusually warm water and the presence of an El Niño weather phenomenon that could also bring historic rain to California, experts have said.
Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central, said El Niño’s warm sea surface temperatures are fueling potent tropical cyclones ahead of fall.
“If we have extra fuel, we can push the accelerator down more and these storms can become more intense as a result,” he told NBC News.
The phenomenon has been changing as a result of global warming, earth scientists have said, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres saying Thursday that El Niño is “being supersized before our eyes.”
It’s a call to action to address climate change, he said.
