One of the most powerful El Niño events ever recorded could form in the coming months, according to new forecasts, raising concerns about global temperatures, hurricanes, drought conditions and other extremes this year.
For several months, forecasters have been predicting a possible “super El Niño” that could emerge and persist through the end of 2026. New forecasts this week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show those odds are increasing.
An El Niño event is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. This natural climate pattern tends to boost global temperatures and can influence weather conditions around the world.
El Niño events typically exacerbate background warming from human-caused climate change, increasing the likelihood of hotter-than-normal global temperatures.
The European center’s latest prediction shows that sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean could be as high as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average by the fall. If so, that would make this El Niño event one of the most powerful on record and could qualify it as a “super El Niño.”
A super El Niño is an exceptionally strong El Niño, and is defined by water temperatures that are at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F) above average in the Pacific Ocean.
NOAA’s outlook, released on Monday, said that “near-to-above average” sea surface temperatures “expanded across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean” since mid-April.
Scientists closely monitor patterns of El Niño because they can have far-ranging effects on global temperatures and extreme weather events.
If a super El Niño forms in the coming months and lasts into next year, climate scientists have said that global temperatures in 2027 could spike to record-breaking highs.
El Niño conditions typically suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing upper-level winds that can tear hurricanes apart and disrupt major storms while they are forming. In the western United States, El Niño tends to be associated with above-average heat and humidity, and these events increase the likelihood of dry and hot conditions across the southern half of the country.
Elsewhere in the world, El Niño conditions tend to drive heavier-than-normal precipitation in central and southern Asia and parts of the Middle East.
In 2015, a super El Niño caused severe drought in Ethiopia and prompted water rationing in Puerto Rico, according to NOAA. It also supercharged tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, resulting in a whopping 16 tropical cyclones that formed in or passed through the region that year, including three Category 4 storms in late August alone.
