President Donald Trump on Wednesday evening offered a rapid-fire series of claims about the economic, military and societal impact of the first year of his second administration — some accurate or close to reality, while others appeared to be either misleading or wrong.
Trump covered a wide variety of topics in the 18-minute speech, touching on everything from wages and employment to the strength of the military and his efforts to address illegal immigration.
NBC News has picked out eight key claims to provide context and data for.
- Trump said: “Wages are going up much faster than inflation.”
Wages are outpacing inflation, but “much” is up for some debate as the pace of wage growth has slowed significantly this year. In January, average wages were increasing at a pace of 4.1%. As of Tuesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October and November jobs report, the pace had fallen to 3.5%. Inflation is currently at 3.0% and has risen every month since April.
It is also worth noting that while the Biden administration endured far higher rates of inflation, wages broadly kept pace with rising prices even for lower-paid workers.
- Trump said: Under former President Joe Biden, “our border was open, and because of this, our country was being invaded by an army of 25 million people, many who came from prisons and jails, mental institutions and insane asylums.”
This claim is false. In reality, 7.4 million undocumented immigrants crossed the border outside of legal checkpoints during the Biden administration, according to data from Customs and Border Protection.
Counting people who crossed the border at legal points of entry but without documentation, it’s still only 10.2 million.
About 800,000 immigrants entered the country through legal programs set up under Biden, such as the protected status programs for residents of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
- Trump said: “The price of eggs is down 82% since March, and everything else is falling rapidly.”
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That assertion is false. The price of eggs is down 43.9% since March, according to government Consumer Price Index data. Prices for some items in the BLS’ inflation report may be falling, but prices broadly continue to increase.
The BLS has not released price data covering the last two months because of the government shutdown. November’s inflation data will be released Thursday morning.
- Trump said: “Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon in much of the country. In some states, it, by the way, just hit $1.99 a gallon.”
Trump’s broader point that gasoline prices are falling is accurate. However, the average price he cites is not. According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the average regular gas price is $2.89. According to AAA, the national average is $2.90.
GasBuddy, a service that tracks thousands of gas stations around the country, does list a small number of service stations in seven states with gas closer to $1.99. But, for example, in Missouri and South Dakota there are only two stations. In Tennessee, there is just one. In Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma there are fewer than a dozen stations apiece.
- Trump said: “The price of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33% compared to the Biden last year.”
That claim is false. The price of a Thanksgiving turkey this year was down, but only by 3.7% for national brands, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Foods Institute. Overall, the institute said, the cost of a Thanksgiving meal fell by 2% to 3% this year.
- Trump said: “Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States.”
This figure is false. Experts say the real figure is lower by many trillions of dollars, and the White House itself lists a figure of $9.6 trillion on its website as of Wednesday evening.
Other analyses of Trump’s evolving numbers on foreign investments have noted that he includes in his tally amorphous pledges made by U.S. trade partners that pledge investments by companies in those countries — promises the government has little power to enforce.
A recent Bloomberg News fact-check found the real figure closer to $7 trillion. But there, too, many of the investments were vague pledges or parts of framework trade deals that have not yet been signed.
- Trump said: “The year before my election, all net creation of jobs was going to foreign migrants. Since I took office, 100% of all net job creation has gone to American-born citizens.”
This statistic does not mean what Trump claims it means. The number of foreign-born and native-born workers in the U.S. workforce at any given time is a complicated estimate based on population projections and samples, not an absolute number.
Likewise, the fact that people were not native-born does not mean they are not citizens today — in 2024, the most recent data year, the U.S. granted citizenship to more than 800,000 people.
For a better sense of how each group is doing in the workforce, experts suggest comparing the unemployment rate among the two groups.
Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate among native-born workers has risen, from 3.9% in November 2024 under Biden to 4.3% last month under Trump.
During the same period, the unemployment rate among foreign-born workers fell, from 4.5% in November last year under Biden to 4.4% last month under Trump. By that measure, Trump has been better for foreign-born workers than Biden was.
- Trump said: “I negotiated directly with the drug companies and foreign nations, which were taking advantage of our country for many decades, to slash prices on drugs and pharmaceuticals by as much as 400%, 500% and even 600%. In other words, your drug costs will be plummeting downward.”
Trump and drugmakers have touted a variety of deals, but it’s far from clear whether consumers have benefited.
Little data is available to substantiate Trump’s broad claims or know whether companies have followed through on their promises. None of the announced deals have approached the level of price reduction that Trump described.
Pfizer said in an announcement that it reached a deal with the administration to lower costs “on average 50%.” It said the savings could reach as much as 85%.
One area in which Trump has struck multiple deals — GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — has been particularly fraught. Experts said the deals, while ambitious, left major questions unanswered.
Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk and the administration reached an agreement to cut prices by about 40%. The deal is contingent on sales through the TrumpRX platform, which has yet to launch.
The companies that reached deals with the White House said that specific terms of the agreements were confidential or that the details had yet to be fully finalized.
In addition, Trump hit trading partners such as the European Union, whose members Germany and Ireland are top sources of U.S. drug imports, with tariffs as high as 20%. Before Trump took office, those imports were largely tariff-free. In early December, the administration reached a deal with the U.K. to bring pharma tariffs back to 0%, but imports from many other trading partners still face tariffs. Some E.U. drug imports currently face tariffs of 15%.
