Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, we get you up to speed before polls close tonight in California, New Jersey, New York, Virginia and beyond.
Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the “newsletter later tonight, when we’ll break down the election results.
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— Adam Wollner
What to watch for on election night
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The Donald Trump era has changed American politics for a decade. Tonight, two contentious races for governor will define what the next steps for Republicans and Democrats might look like — not only who will lead Virginia and New Jersey for four years, but how the two parties are appealing to different types of voters and building coalitions for future elections.
Republicans have gained ground in those two blue-leaning states since Trump’s heavy losses there in 2020. Today’s elections will show just how durable those advances were, hinging in part on the progress the Republican Party under Trump made with groups that once voted more strongly against the GOP. That especially includes Latino voters, who banked heavily toward Trump in 2024.
But Democrats have spent the last year focused on how to reverse those trends, nominating candidates without baggage from the party’s 2024 election loss. And, of course, Trump is now in the White House, which during his first term led to voter backlash against him as the incumbent.
The two states saw similar results in the last presidential election, but the races have gone differently this year. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger enters Election Day with a clear polling lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. And in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a smaller advantage in most surveys over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Here are the cities, counties and trends Steve is watching in New Jersey and Virginia →
In addition to these high-profile gubernatorial races, there are a series of other important elections happening around the country today.
- State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo are battling to become the next mayor of New York City.
- California voters will decide whether to approve a new congressional map that could allow Democrats to gain up to five House seats.
- Three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices face up-or-down retention votes that will determine whether Democrats keep their 5-2 majority.
- Voters in Texas’ 18th District will choose a replacement for the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner.
Polls close at 7 p.m. in Virginia; 8 p.m. in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas; 9 p.m. in New York; and 11 p.m. in California (all times are ET).
Catch up on those races here →
The latest from the campaign trail:
- Trump held tele-rallies for Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia, though he did not mention Earle-Sears by name.
- Trump endorsed Cuomo for mayor of New York City, telling voters, “You really have no choice.” Mamdani told NBC News: “I think it makes explicit what has been implicit for many months.”
- Follow live updates on our blog →
Tune in to live NBC News election night coverage:
- NBC News NOW, our free streaming service, will be airing an election special beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
- NBCNews.com and the NBC News app will feature real-time results of all the major races as well as all the latest reporting.
- NBC News’ podcast, “Here’s the Scoop,” will be livestreaming on YouTube and NBCNews.com beginning around 11 p.m. ET.
- Steve Kornacki will be at the big board all night, analyzing results and providing minute-by-minute updates exclusively on the NBC News NOW special and the “Here’s the Scoop” livestream.
🗞️ Today's other top stories
- ⛔ Shutdown, Day 35: As the government shutdown ties for the longest in American history, some senators predicted that the impasse could end this week. Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that the U.S. might be forced to close parts of its airspace if staffing shortages continue.
- 🗺️ Redistricting update: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore launched a redistricting commission to consider a new congressional map, despite opposition from the top state Senate Democrat to such an effort. Read more →
- ⚫ RIP: Former Vice President Dick Cheney, an architect of the global war on terrorism and the Iraq War, who served for decades in Congress and three Republican administrations, died last night. He was 84. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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