WASHINGTON — Entering its 36th day, the government shutdown is now the longest in American history, though senators predicted Tuesday that the impasse could end this week.
“I’m pretty confident,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla.
After weeks without any movement, bipartisan talks among rank-and-file members have been picking up, leading to the first public signs of optimism that the shutdown could soon end.
Mullin said that some Democrats had privately indicated last week that they were willing to vote for the short-term Republican spending bill that would reopen the government through Nov. 21. But, Mullin said, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., had instructed them to wait until after Tuesday’s elections so they wouldn’t depress turnout from the liberal base that has been urging the party to hold the line. Schumer's office had no immediate comment.
Mullin, who regularly speaks with President Donald Trump, Democrats and his former House colleagues, said "there's a possibility" that the Senate could break the impasse and vote to reopen the government on Wednesday night, "but more than likely Thursday."
A funding bill would then need to pass the House and be signed into law by Trump to reopen the government.
Centrist Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, who has taken part in some of the bipartisan talks on how to get the government reopened, agreed with Mullin, repeatedly saying he’s “optimistic” the shutdown could end this week.
And Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., also pointed to Tuesday's elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York and California as a key factor that could shake loose a solution to the impasse.
“After the elections come and go, I think the Democrats will reveal what this was about all the time, which was a political play. They want to keep their base upset, try to blame Republicans, even though they voted over 13 times now to continue to shut down the government,” Schmitt told reporters. “So my guess is that later this week, we’ll end up funding the government as Republicans had proposed 35 days ago.”
Democrats, however, have dismissed the GOP argument that reopening the government will all hinge on the election, with Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut mocking it as "cynical galaxy brain thinking."
Republicans need just five more Democrats in the Senate to break with their leadership and vote for a continuing resolution or CR to reopen the government. On Sept. 26, the GOP-controlled House had passed a clean CR to fund the government through Nov. 21. But Senate Democrats opposed it, insisting that any bill to fund the government must also address health insurance subsidies that will expire at the end of this year, raising premiums for millions. Tuesday marked the 14th time that Democrats voted to block the House bill in the Senate.
But with Nov. 21 and the Thanksgiving holiday fast approaching, there is now a need for Congress to pass a longer CR — possibly into the new year — to give bipartisan negotiators a longer runway to craft spending bills for the fiscal year that began on Oct. 1.
Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins, whose panel is responsible for writing spending bills, said Monday night she is “very cautiously hopeful that it will be resolved by the end of this week.”
“There have been a lot of conversations on both sides of the aisle and across the aisle, and across the chambers,” the Maine Republican said, “and I do believe that we are finally making progress.”
Collins cited a level of “specificity” in the talks that had not been there in previous negotiations but admitted “it’s too soon to declare that this nightmare of a shutdown is over.”
The Appropriations chair supports a new CR to keep the government funded through Dec. 19, which she said would pressure Congress to reach a spending deal right before the holidays.
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It's a well-worn tactic for forcing a funding deal, but it's drawn opposition from many in the GOP in recent years. On Tuesday morning, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he opposed setting a deadline in December, warning that it could entice lawmakers to pass a massive omnibus spending package, rather than individual funding bills that are more carefully crafted to address spending.
He said he would back a CR that funds the government into January — a timeline endorsed by Florida Sen. Rick Scott and other Republicans.
“I am not a fan of extending it to December because, let’s be frank, a lot of people around here have PTSD about Christmas omnibus spending bills,” Johnson told reporters. “We don’t want to do that. It gets too close, and we don’t want to have that risk. We’re not doing that. We’re not doing that, but too many people have concern. I think putting it into January makes sense.”
But there are no bipartisan negotiations happening at the leadership level with Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., about a longer-term CR.
Across the aisle, some rank-and-file Democrats are hopeful for a breakthrough as the shutdown approaches the five-week mark on Wednesday. But they’re not sharing the GOP’s confidence that it will all be over by week’s end.
Democrats have been demanding that Trump and other GOP leaders come to the table to negotiate extending the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. So far, Republicans have refused and said that Democrats need to vote to reopen the government before any substantive health care talks can take place.
“There seems to be some indication of a thaw, but I see no immediate solution on the horizon,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. “Talks are a good thing, but so far, I sense no willingness on the part of Republicans to really assure the American people that health care insurance will be guaranteed.”
Speaking on the Senate floor Tuesday, Schumer said Democrats are fighting to lower health care costs at a time when 24 million Americans on Obamacare are facing sticker shock due to uncertainty about the expiring subsidies.
“Never have American families faced a situation where their health care costs are set to double — double in the blink of an eye,” Schumer said.
“The biggest beneficiaries of these enhanced premium tax credits are red states. Millions of people in Texas, Florida. Republicans seem ready to tell their own constituents back home: screw you, I would rather cut taxes for billionaires — that’s what’s going on,” Schumer said. “Democrats are going to keep pushing to get these tax credits extended.”
