The signs of a blue wave aren't there like they were in Trump's first term: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki digs into why a blue wave doesn’t appear to be materializing (yet) for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. Plus, the government shutdown stretches into a 7th day.

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— Adam Wollner

The signs of a blue wave aren't there like they were in Trump’s first term

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump’s first term could be seen coming from far away. This time around, the signs are not so clear.

By the fall of 2017, Trump’s first year in office, Democrats had opened a sizable advantage in the generic congressional ballot. On this day in 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Democratic lead was 7.8 points. It’s a margin that would more or less hold over the ensuing year, culminating in a 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms that gave Democrats control of the House.

Today, by contrast, the RCP average has Democrats up by only 3 points in the generic ballot. This comes even as Trump’s overall job approval rating sits in the low- to mid-40s — similar to his first term — and as he continues to accrue negative ratings for his handling of the economy and inflation.

Views of Trump’s opposition, though, look very different today than they did eight years ago. In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, Democrats fared consistently — and significantly — better than the Republicans on party image. This time around, it’s a different story.

Earlier this year, Democrats registered their lowest positive rating in the history of our NBC News poll, which dates back more than three decades. Similar findings have emerged in other surveys.

A significant factor is self-identified Democrats expressing unfavorable views of their own party. This internal frustration — combined with other data that shows these voters want a more confrontational posture from their party’s leaders — helps explain why Democrats in Washington have embraced a government shutdown.

This also raises the question of what other new tactical or ideological steps Democratic leaders may take to appease their base — and whether the wider electorate will be receptive to them. In Trump’s first term, independents took a less negative view of Democrats than Republicans. Now, it’s more of a wash.

Of course, to win back the House next year, Democrats don’t need a wave; a net gain of just three seats will do the trick. But Republicans may end up effectively raising that number to the high single digits through mid-decade redistricting efforts.

Typically, the opposition party can count on a midterm boost by serving as the protest vehicle for whatever dissatisfaction voters want to express with the White House. But in today’s atmosphere of intense polarization, there may be some voters who want to express their displeasure with the opposition party, too.

Shutdown, Day 7: Trump dials up the pressure as MTG breaks with her party on Obamacare

The White House raised the stakes of the government shutdown as it entered its seventh day with a draft memo arguing that furloughed federal workers are not entitled to back pay, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NBC News.

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The memo, first reported by Axios, comes despite the Office of Personnel Management’s own September guidance, which said federal workers will receive retroactive pay after the shutdown lifts.

The memo also clashes with a 2019 law that requires back pay for federal workers. The law, called the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, says all federal employees, whether furloughed or deemed essential and working without pay, must receive back pay after a shutdown ends.

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Asked about the White House’s position on back pay, President Donald Trump told reporters, “I would say it depends on who we’re talking about.” Trump also likened the shutdown to a “kamikaze attack“ by Democrats.

The idea of denying back pay prompted some intraparty backlash, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., calling it a “horrible message” and a “bad strategy.”

Speaking of GOP divisions: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., broke with her party by calling for action on expiring Obamacare subsidies to avoid premium hikes, Sahil Kapur reports.

In a long post on X, Greene, the far-right MAGA firebrand, made it clear she was not in Congress when the 2010 law passed.

“Let’s just say as nicely as possible, I’m not a fan,” she wrote. “But I’m going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district.”

“Not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!” Greene added.

Asked by our colleague Ryan Nobles about Greene’s comments, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said she doesn’t sit on the committees of jurisdiction and “she’s probably not read in on some of that.” He added that “everybody’s entitled to their opinion,” but “not everyone knows everything.”

At the airport: Flight delays across the U.S. stretched into a second day as the Federal Aviation Administration braced for more airport staffing shortages amid the shutdown, Matt Lavietes and Corky Siemaszko write.

Maya Rosenberg and Jay Blackman also note that federal funding for air travel in rural areas will run out Sunday if the shutdown continues.

In the states: Some governors are drawing on state funds to keep popular national parks open for tourists, Raquel Coronell Uribe reports.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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