As the special House election for a deep-red congressional district in Tennessee approaches, one issue has shaped the race above all else: Donald Trump.
A crowded field in Tuesday’s GOP primary to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s seat spent months fighting over who’s the most pro-Trump before Trump stepped in with an endorsement for Matt Van Epps at the end of last week. Other issues have fallen to the background, blurring the lines between candidates, while the increasing drumbeat of campaign ads largely revolved around support for Trump and his policies.
Trump and Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn each carried the 7th District by about 20 points last year, making the Republican primary the main event in the special election to replace Green, who resigned this year. And Trump's endorsement was the big event of the primary, with the capacity to shape Election Day turnout (it took place after early voting closed) and the result on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, with campaigns expecting fewer voters to participate than usual because of the irregular election dates, it’s possible the Dec. 2 special general election could be a closer contest than the election was last year, like other special elections around the country this year.
The district in Middle Tennessee has been heavily Republican for more than a dozen years, and it remained so even after the Republican-controlled Legislature redrew congressional lines and added more Democratic voters to the seat after the last census.
All 11 Republicans in the race voiced broad support for Trump’s policies, with the top fundraisers explicitly branding themselves as pro-Trump, “America First” conservatives. On the Democratic side, three more state lawmakers and a businessman are running for the nomination.
In an interview conducted before he received Trump's endorsement, Van Epps, former commissioner of the state Department of General Services, said he hopes his vision of “security, opportunity and prosperity” will appeal to 7th District voters.
Van Epps comes into the primary with endorsements from Green, Gov. Bill Lee and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, another prominent conservative in Congress. But the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus spent heavily backing another candidate, state Rep. Jody Barrett.
Van Epps is a lieutenant colonel in the Tennessee Army National Guard, and he was a helicopter pilot in the Army, at one point stationed at Fort Campbell, which is in the district.
Service members and veterans make up a large proportion of the electorate, the Tennessee Lookout reported. The district is fairly diverse, covering parts of two of the three most affluent counties in the state, as well as some of its poorest counties, and it includes large farming communities.
Barrett said in an interview before Trump endorsed Van Epps that he hopes the one thing that can unite 7th District voters is addressing the cost of living. He plans to support Trump’s economic agenda if he’s elected, but he said he’s willing to deviate from his party if it means voting in the interests of his constituents.
“Part of the job as a legislator is to analyze and advocate what the executive branch is doing and then advocate for your position and your people and your district,” Barrett said.
His occasional criticism of Trump has been a sticking point: A TV ad from the School Freedom Fund, a super PAC backed by Republican megadonor Jeff Yass, tagged Barrett as a “RINO,” or “Republican in name only.” It’s part of an expensive advertising campaign in the district featuring outside groups largely backing Barrett and Van Epps.
State Reps. Gino Bulso and Lee Reeves — who suspended his campaign after Trump backed Van Epps — and businessmen Stewart Parks and Mason Foley have also lent or self-contributed significant sums, adding to the ads in the GOP primary.
Foley, 28, a health care industry businessman, said he’d support Trump’s agenda in Congress but wants to bring attention to the issues that matter to Generation Z — things like the cost of living and health care affordability.
He told NBC News he thinks national Republicans have “totally surrendered” those issues to Democrats. His goal: “making the American Dream more achievable for people in my generation.”
If he’s elected, he’d be the youngest — and first Gen Z — Republican member of Congress. He has criticized Washington insiders but also wants to use his experience as an aide for Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
As of the Sept. 17 campaign finance filing deadline, Foley had the most cash on hand to spend of any Republican in the race, largely because he put more than $325,000 in loans into his campaign — more than 80% of his funding.
The Democratic side of the race has been quieter — and less crowded. Businessman and political strategist Darden Copeland has almost $400,000 in his campaign account — over three-fourths of it from individual donors — and says he’s gearing up for a big fight in the general election if he wins the primary.
A trio of state legislators who already have some recognition in the district, Reps. Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell, are also competing for the Democratic nomination.
In a debate in Nashville on Sept. 9, the four Democrats mostly argued over who was most electable in the general election, according to the Tennessee Lookout.
Copeland told NBC News he’s not running “to raise my profile or have a moral victory.” He said he thinks what sets him apart is that he isn’t already an elected official.
“I think Tennessee has the most dysfunctional state legislature in the country. Sending someone from this broken system to that broken system is laughable,” he said in an interview Thursday, referring to Congress.
Two weeks of early voting ended Thursday, with more than 36,000 people voting. There were more than 469,000 registered voters in the district in the August 2024 state primary, The Associated Press reported. Most ballots in that election were cast during early voting.
The special primary takes place Tuesday, and the special general election is Dec. 2.
