This is the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Welcome to Election Day! In today’s edition, we have everything you need to get up to speed on tonight’s primaries before polls close. Plus, we dive into the Trump administration’s varying rationales for launching the war with Iran.
Programming note: Follow along with all of the election action on NBC News NOW and our live blog. And keep an eye out for a special edition of the newsletter tonight breaking down all of the key results.
Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.
— Adam Wollner
Incumbents are at risk as the first primaries of the midterm elections get underway
By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman
Three states are kicking off the 2026 midterm elections Tuesday with primaries that will shape the battle for control of the House and the Senate, while simmering fights for control of each party could boil over as voters decide whether to discard longtime incumbents.
As Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina vote, the highest-profile race features longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is in the fight of his political life against state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in Texas. Both are challenging Cornyn from his right flank in a primary that has drawn almost $100 million in advertising.
Meanwhile, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are squaring off in the opposing primary, a race that has exposed an important strategic divide in the party over whether Democrats should be trying to excite their base or focusing on bipartisan appeal. (More on that contest below.)
And while Cornyn is the headliner, he’s just one of a handful of incumbents in both parties who face serious primary threats to their political future.
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, faces political trouble and an ethics investigation amid allegations he had an affair with an aide who later died by suicide. Reps. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, and Valerie Foushee, D-N.C., are locked in tough primaries against challengers arguing they aren’t ideologically pure enough to meet the moment. And Democratic Reps. Christian Menefee, Al Green and Julie Johnson’s political careers hang in the balance in Texas thanks to massive changes to their districts after last year’s Republican-led redistricting push.
Here’s what else to watch tonight →
The geographic and demographic dividing lines shaping Texas' Democratic Senate primary
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
Texas’ Democratic Senate primary has been a bit of a polling mystery. There is some agreement among the various surveys. Among Black voters, who will make up about 20% of the electorate, Crockett is crushing Talarico. Talarico does appear to be ahead with white voters, who should account for just over 40% of the electorate. But the extent of his lead here is unclear.
Hispanic voters loom as a potentially decisive constituency. They should account for about one-third of all votes in the primary, but the polling has been all over the map.
There may be a decent model for this race. In 2020, MJ Hegar and Royce West faced off in a Democratic primary runoff with potentially similar demographic and geographic contours.
West was a state legislator from the Dallas area with deep support from Black voters. Like Crockett, he ran to the left and was vastly outraised and outspent by his opponent, whose supporters had portrayed him as unelectable in the fall.
Hegar, meanwhile, was an Air Force veteran whose near-miss bid for an Austin-area congressional seat in 2018 had made her something of a celebrity among Democrats nationally. She was the recipient of glowing and extensive coverage in national media outlets — much like Talarico, whose own political base is also in the Austin area.
The contest was close, with Hegar ultimately prevailing 52% to 48%. West came close by running up a landslide in the Dallas area, which accounted for nearly one-third of the runoff vote. He also narrowly won the greater Houston area and rolled up landslide margins in East Texas, which has a sizable Black population.
Hegar, meanwhile, ran up the score around her Austin base, but the reason she was able to eke out a win is that the Hispanic vote broke her way — as seen in the margins she secured in the El Paso and San Antonio areas and in South Texas.
Those same heavily Hispanic areas may well end up deciding whether it’s Crockett or Talarico who advances to the general election this time around.
Keep reading for Steve’s look at the GOP Senate primary in Texas →
Check out the “Kornacki Cam” tonight on YouTube, NBCNews.com, the NBC News app and NBC News’ Instagram, Facebook and TikTok accounts.
Trump struggles to define Iran war goals
Analysis by Dan De Luce and Justin Goldman
President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran were decisive, killing the country’s supreme leader and many of his lieutenants. His rationale for launching the war and definition of victory have been less clear.
Among his reasons for launching the strikes: Trump said he wanted to eliminate “imminent threats” to the United States; he accused Tehran of trying to rebuild the nuclear program he said had been “obliterated” in June; and he warned that its ballistic missiles could soon strike the U.S. Referring to Iran’s proxy forces, which have targeted Americans dating back to the 1980s, he said that “this was our last, best chance to strike.”
And he referenced an Iranian assassination plot against him in 2024, which Iran has denied.
“I got him before he got me,” Trump told ABC News, not long after word of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death.
Senior administration officials have also offered varied explanations for the strikes, and struggled to coalesce around a narrative. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation was not about regime change, even though Trump invited Iranians to “seize control of your destiny.” And Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Israel was about to attack Iran, and Tehran would then retaliate — so the U.S. had to act pre-emptively.
“We were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded,” Rubio told reporters before a briefing to congressional leaders Monday.
The assault on Iran came after weeks of diplomatic efforts and threats by the president, but in the long windup to war, Trump did not devote much time to making the case to the American people — or to Congress, which is set to vote on a war powers resolution this week, after the battle has already started. Now, Trump is facing pushback from right-wing political commentators, and must strike a balance with supporters who elected him because he was opposed to “forever wars.”
More on the Iran war:
Trump’s MAGA base wrestles with Iran strikes launched by an ‘America First’ president, by Matt Dixon
Americans urged to leave Middle East, but many airports are closed and embassy staff is reduced, by Abigail Williams and Julie Cerullo
Oil surges, stocks plunge as fears of prolonged war hit markets, by Steve Kopack
Dispatch from Tehran: Nowhere feels safe from attack, by Amin Khodadadi
🗞️ Today's other top stories
- 📝 Epstein saga: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick agreed to testify as part of the House Oversight Committee’s investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, according to the committee chairman. Read more →
- 🗣️ Barking back: During a tense hearing, Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., called on Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to resign over her handling of the deadly Minneapolis immigration operation — and blasted her for killing her dog that she had described in her memoir as “untrainable.” Read more →
- 🚫 Shutdown showdown: Congressional Democrats are making clear they won’t relent on their DHS funding demands because of the Iran war. Read more →
- 🗳️ On notice: The chair of the California Democratic Party called on candidates who “do not have a viable path” to the general election to drop out of the state’s crowded gubernatorial race. Read more →
- 🗺️ Redistricting roundup: The Supreme Court issued a ruling that will keep New York City’s lone Republican-held congressional district in place for this year’s midterm elections. Read more →
- ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court also barred California from restricting when schools can notify parents about students who come out as transgender and requiring teachers to use children’s preferred pronouns. Read more →
- 🤔 On second thought: In a quick reversal, the Justice Department told an appeals court it wanted to continue its battle over executive orders aimed at law firms targeted by Trump. Read more →
- 🍽️ RSVP: Trump said that he will go to the White House correspondents’ dinner this year, the first time he’ll be in attendance while in office. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.
If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.
