Three states are kicking off the 2026 midterm elections Tuesday with primaries that will shape the battle for control of the House and the Senate, while simmering fights for control of each party could boil over as voters decide whether to discard longtime incumbents.
As Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina vote, the highest-profile race features longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is in the fight of his political life against state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in Texas. Both are challenging Cornyn from his right flank in a primary that has drawn almost $100 million in advertising.
Meanwhile, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are squaring off in the opposing primary, a race that has exposed an important strategic divide in the party over whether Democrats should be trying to excite their base or focusing on bipartisan appeal.
And while Cornyn is the headliner, he's just one of a handful of incumbents in both parties who face serious primary threats to their political future.
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, faces political trouble and an ethics investigation amid allegations he had an affair with an aide who later died by suicide. Reps. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, and Valerie Foushee, D-N.C., are locked in tough primaries against challengers arguing they aren’t ideologically pure enough to meet the moment. And Democratic Reps. Christian Menefee, Al Green and Julie Johnson’s political careers hang in the balance in Texas thanks to massive changes to their districts after last year's Republican-led redistricting push.
Other primary battles will test the strength of President Donald Trump’s endorsement and provide clues about what kinds of politicians voters from both parties want to send to Washington amid concern over the economy and immigration at home and war abroad.
Here’s what to watch on Election Day.
Defining the Senate battleground
The Texas primaries could help determine whether the state is competitive in November, and the prospect of a close general election race has played a role in both party primaries.
Cornyn has argued that he is the GOP’s best chance to hold onto the seat — and that Paxton, in particular, could put the party at risk. Paxton was impeached on allegations of bribery and corruption in 2023 (the state Senate acquitted him). He is also in the middle of a divorce, with his wife saying they are separating “on biblical grounds,” a line Cornyn’s allies have hammered home in attack ads on the airwaves.
Paxton, though, argues that he can energize Trump supporters who are less likely to turn out in the midterms, when the president isn’t on the ballot. And Hunt argues he has less baggage than Cornyn and Paxton.
Trump so far has remained neutral in the race, although his takeover of the Republican Party has raised questions about whether longtime politicians like Cornyn have a place in today’s GOP.
With three high-profile Republican candidates, no one is expected to win a majority of the vote, which means the top two vote-getters would head to a May 26 runoff.
Democrats, meanwhile, believe they could have a shot at winning in Texas even though Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024. Trump earned a narrower 6-point margin in 2020, and in 2018, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke lost to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by less than 3 points.
Crockett, whose combative style has helped her build a national profile, says she can win with a multiracial, multigenerational coalition built by energizing voters who don’t typically head to the polls but would be inclined to support a Democrat. Talarico, meanwhile, has stressed his bipartisan appeal, touting his win in a GOP-leaning state legislative seat.
Talarico and Crockett have pitched themselves as fighters, with Crockett highlighting her clashes with Trump and Talarico saying he wants to take on a corrupt system that benefits billionaires.
While the general election matchup in Texas could remain unclear until the runoff in May, the race will most likely be set in another crucial state to the battle for the Senate: North Carolina.
Tuesday’s primary is expected to formalize the matchup between Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has Trump’s endorsement. But Tuesday’s results could test whether Whatley has more work to do to shore up the party’s MAGA base, as he faces two primary challengers on the right.
House incumbents under pressure
Gonzales, who represents a sprawling Texas district along the southern border, was already facing a difficult re-election fight this spring even before the affair allegations.
Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun activist who fell just a few hundred votes short of toppling Gonzales in 2024, is running again, though Gonzales had Trump’s endorsement this time. But the race has been upended by the affair allegations, including the revelations that Gonzales sent sexual text messages to his former aide, according to messages obtained by NBC News.
Gonzales had denied the affair months ago, but his more recent statements don’t specifically address the allegation. He has instead argued that the attacks are politically motivated.
The presence of a third candidate, former Rep. Quico Canseco, could be enough to send the race to a runoff — but it’s possible one candidate will win outright Tuesday.
In the Houston area, Crenshaw has tangled with prominent conservatives like Tucker Carlson on social media and now faces a primary challenge from conservative state Rep. Steve Toth. Toth argues that Crenshaw’s positions on Ukraine and immigration are out of step with the “Make America Great Again” wing of the party, while Crenshaw has embraced Trump on the trail and on the airwaves even though Trump hasn’t endorsed him. Last week, Cruz endorsed Toth.
North Carolina is home to the other incumbent facing a serious, insurgent primary challenge — this time from the left.
Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee is running in a rematch of a 2022 primary against Durham Board of County Commissioners member Nida Allam, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and a constellation of progressive outside groups looking to reshape the Democratic Party with a new generation of leaders.
Foushee has support from prominent Democrats in the state like Gov. Josh Stein. Outside money has flooded the race in the final weeks from both sides in the first of what could be a spate of progressive challenges to established incumbents in the 2026 midterm elections.
How redistricting is reshaping the House
Tuesday’s elections will also see the first practical results from Republicans’ effort to boost their chances to keep the House majority by redrawing congressional lines in Texas and North Carolina.
The most direct and immediate impact will be in Texas’ 9th and 32nd districts, two formerly deep blue districts where the winners of Republican primaries will be practically assured of November victory in redrawn, deep-red seats.
The impact won’t be felt just in Republican territory. At least one incumbent Democrat is going to lose a seat in Texas this spring because Republicans carved up their districts as part of their attempt to create five new Republican-leaning seats.
In Houston, newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, is running against longtime Rep. Al Green, 78, in a generational battle set off because Green’s old seat was turned into a safe Republican district. Next door, Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia's district was redrawn from an overwhelmingly Hispanic district to one more closely divided between Hispanic and Black voting blocs.
And in North Texas, Rep. Julie Johnson and former Rep. Colin Allred are locked in a competitive primary for a newly drawn blue district after Allred dropped out of the Senate race in deference to Crockett.
Tuesday's primaries will also shape battleground districts that Republican legislators in Texas and North Carolina redrew in hope of flipping.
In South Texas, Republicans will choose their nominees to face off against Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. And in North Carolina, Republicans will pick their nominee in the 1st District, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
Trump's endorsement and long-shot districts
Results on Tuesday will also shed important light on a number of important dynamics in both parties, including the power of Trump's endorsement.
Trump has backed every incumbent House Republican running for re-election across all three states with primaries Tuesday — with the lone exception of Crenshaw.
Still, Crenshaw is campaigning as an ally of Trump even without his official endorsement, while Toth is trying to exploit a perceived weakness for Crenshaw on his right.
Trump did wade into a spate of competitive Texas House primaries in which incumbents retired, leaving open seats behind. He is backing Alex Mealer, a former candidate for Harris County chief executive, in the 9th District; former baseball star Mark Teixeira in the 21st District; attorney Jace Yarbrough in the 32nd District; Army veteran Eric Flores in the 34th District; and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz in the 35th District — as well as others in less competitive open seats.
And there’s one more Democratic primary worth keeping tabs on, too, in Texas’ 15th District, the South Texas district that may be the party’s only chance to go on offense in the state. Many national and statewide Democrats are excited about Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, a prominent musician making his initial political bid. But he faces a serious challenge from emergency physician doctor Ada Cuellar, who has criticized Pulido from his left on issues like abortion rights.
