Why the redistricting fight is likely to stretch beyond the 2026 midterms

Catch up with NBC News Clone on today's hot topic: Redistricting Fight Likely Stretch 2026 Midterms Rcna253075 - Politics and Government | NBC News Clone. Our editorial team reformatted this story for clarity and speed.

While both parties are jockeying for an edge in this year's battle for the House, some states are already setting their sights on the next election cycle.
Rep. Cory Maloy, holds a packet of potential redistricting maps as SB1012 Congressional Boundaries Designation is discussed in the House chamber
Utah Rep. Cory Maloy reviews a packet of proposed congressional maps at the state Capitol in Salt Lake City in October.Kristin Murphy / The Deseret News via AP

A handful of states have rushed to redraw their congressional maps in recent months as members of both parties search for advantages in the race for the U.S. House majority this fall.

But there are growing signs that this atypically active mid-decade redistricting fight won't end with the midterm elections.

Members of both parties around the country are already laying the groundwork to consider new congressional boundaries ahead of the following election in 2028, part of a continuing response to the maps GOP-led states first enacted at President Donald Trump's behest last year.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Southern states are awaiting a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could unravel a key prohibition on racial gerrymandering and allow them to draw more favorable maps for their party. The longer the court waits to issue that ruling, the more likely it is the effects would not be felt until after the 2026 elections.

Officials in four Democratic-controlled states — Washington, Colorado, New York and New Jersey — have opened the door to altering their state constitutions to pave the way for new congressional maps, multistep efforts that face major hurdles and would stretch beyond 2026. And Republicans in Utah are eyeing a ballot measure that could allow them to undo a recent court-ordered map down the line.

In Washington state, Democrats kicked off the new year's legislative session with a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow lawmakers to pursue mid-cycle redistricting if other states enact new maps. Otherwise, redistricting usually occurs at the beginning of each decade with new census results.

“Washington state is not going to just sit by while Donald Trump and his allies in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio seek to rig the US House to lock in a Republican majority,” state House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon, who sponsored the legislation, said in a statement. “Democracy is on the line, and Washingtonians deserve a voice in whether or not Trump gets a handpicked Congress.”

But Washington Democrats currently do not have a supermajority in either legislative chamber, leaving them short of the two-thirds support needed to advance such an amendment. So they will need to pick up seats in this year's elections to make the push viable.

Democrats currently control all but two of Washington's districts.

New York Democrats introduced a similar bill last summer that would permit lawmakers to draw a new congressional map in the middle of the decade if other states did. Legislators would need to approve a constitutional amendment in two consecutive sessions before placing it on the ballot for voters’ approval.

But the amendment would still bar partisan gerrymandering in New York, a prohibition that has cost Democrats their preferred map in the past and could make the process even trickier as they aim to target some of the seven districts with a GOP representative.

Further south in New Jersey, where Republicans represent three districts, there's growing support for a new map. Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s office has signaled she's open to joining the redistricting arms race.

Changing the state's constitution requires three-fifths support in both chambers — a level of control Democrats currently have in New Jersey — or majority votes two years in a row before going to voters on the ballot.

“I think we have to be open to it, right?” Alex Ball, Sherrill’s incoming chief of staff, said at an event hosted by Politico last month. “If you look at what the Trump administration is doing, I think we have to take any threat of overreach, of our election system, on their part, seriously. … So, I think the governor-elect will look at all options available.”

Meanwhile, a spate of prominent Colorado Democrats, including Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser, who are both running for governor, have come out in support of amending the state’s constitution to allow for a new congressional map. Colorado's eight districts are split evenly between the two parties.

“Donald Trump and Republicans have taken us down this dangerous path of mid-cycle redistricting. We have no choice but to fight back," Bennet said in a statement last month. "I support a one-time change to Colorado’s constitution so we can do our part.”

But such a push would face significant legal and political challenges. Like in Washington state, Colorado Democrats need a supermajority in the Legislature to put the proposal before voters, which they currently lack.

Republicans in neighboring Utah are also setting their sights on future elections after suffering a redistricting setback last year. District Judge Dianna Gibson rejected a GOP-drawn map in favor of one that will all but certainly result in Democrats picking up a seat in the midterms.

Utah Republicans are still appealing that decision while pursuing a measure for this year's ballot that would repeal the rules in the state's constitution that prevent partisan gerrymandering. If that passes, the GOP-controlled Legislature could take up a new map next year.

“By design or by default, Judge Gibson has authorized the most partisan and thus the most gerrymandered map in the history of the state of Utah,” state Senate President J. Stuart Adams, a Republican, said last year following the ruling.

In addition to the court-ordered map in Utah, five other states saw new maps go into effect last year. Republicans sought to further expand their edges in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while Democrats in California successfully enacted new district lines to boost their party.

At least two other states are pursuing new maps this year. In Virginia, Democrats are expected to pass a constitutional amendment for a second time this week so that it can go before voters this spring. And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis recently called for a special legislative session in April to take up redistricting.

Florida and other GOP-led states are also keeping a close eye on a Supreme Court case regarding Louisiana's congressional map that could lead to a weakening of the Voting Rights Act. That could allow the Republicans to target majority-minority districts represented by Democrats in Southern states.

But it's not clear if such a ruling would come in time for maps to be redrawn ahead of the 2026 elections. Louisiana, for instance, plans to use its current district lines this year, after Republicans voted to push back their election calendar last fall in preparation for the court's decision.

"Many Democratic states across the country need to be prepared to take action to counteract what Southern Republican states have already said they are going to do, which is gerrymander — racially gerrymander — this country to the most extreme degree it's ever seen," said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

Legal battles could force new maps, too. A dozen states had ongoing congressional redistricting litigation as of the end of 2025, according to the Brennan Center for Justice: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New York, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin.

“More litigation creates more uncertainty, and really more opportunities for the court to say, what exactly does our democracy allow for, and what does it not?” said Abha Khanna, a lawyer who leads the redistricting work at the Democratic-aligned Elias Law Group and is litigating cases in 10 states.

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