The 2026 midterm elections are fast approaching, but for some states, their congressional boundary lines are far from settled.
After six states enacted new congressional maps this year, a handful of others could join the mid-decade redistricting fight next year that could help determine which party controls the House.
“We’re still squarely in the middle of this redistricting crisis,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
The redrawing of district lines typically happens at the start of each decade after the new census results. But President Donald Trump kicked off an unusually frenzied midcycle redistricting battle over the summer, when he called on Republican-controlled states across the country to draw new maps to shore up the GOP's narrow House majority. Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina all enacted new maps, which in total could net Republicans as many as seven seats.
But Republicans were not able to build as robust of an advantage as they initially hoped. California Democrats responded with a map, approved by voters last month, that could allow the party to gain up to five seats and effectively cancel out Texas' effort.
Ohio Republicans cut a deal with Democrats on a previously scheduled map redo that may only net the GOP one or two seats, which did not go as far as many in the party had wanted. In Utah, a court-ordered map resulted in a new Democratic-leaning district.
And earlier this month, Indiana lawmakers dealt national Republicans their biggest setback yet by rejecting a redrawn map designed to give the party two additional seats after a monthslong pressure campaign from Trump and his allies.
All told, Republicans end the year with as many as nine newly favorable seats, compared to six for Democrats.
Here is where the redistricting fight is heading in the new year.
Virginia
Virginia Democrats made a surprise move this fall to move forward with a complicated legislative maneuver to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In October, the Democratic-controlled Legislature took the first step by passing a constitutional amendment that would allow lawmakers to draw a new map if another state does the same outside of the usual decennial cycle, absent a court order. The amendment will need to pass the Legislature again next year — when it will include even more Democrats, thanks to strong showing for the party in November's elections — before going to voters for final approval.
The process is necessary to bypass Virginia's bipartisan redistricting commission, which voters approved just five years ago.
Assuming that all goes as planned for Democrats in the blue-leaning state, legislative leaders have signaled they could target as many as four Republican seats in a new map.
“Our congressional delegation is 6-5 — six Democrats, five Republicans. Ten-1 is not out of the realm,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said in early December.
Under the current lines, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger carried 8 of the state's 11 congressional districts in the November election.
Virginia lawmakers will need to move quickly. The filing deadline for the primary election is April 2, though that date could be moved to accommodate a new map.
Florida
Florida's Republican-led Legislature is widely expected to pursue a redistricting push next year. But the state Constitution’s ban on partisan gerrymandering and some infighting between Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP lawmakers are creating some hurdles.
Republicans currently control 20 of Florida's 28 congressional districts, and hope that a new map could allow them to pick up three to five seats.
State House lawmakers have declared their interest in moving quickly, convening a brief committee hearing this month that formally kick-started the process. But DeSantis prefers to wait until the Supreme Court issues a ruling on a case that could erode a key provision of the Voting Rights Act (more on that below) and make the process smoother.
A late-April filing deadline and mid-August primary give Florida Republicans some additional breathing room compared to other states, though those could also be moved.
Kansas
Aside from Florida, Republicans don't have many other clear redistricting targets.
In Kansas, Republicans legislative leaders have said they’ll discuss redrawing the state's map when they reconvene in January, though they tried and failed to bring the issue forward earlier this year.
The issue for Kansas Republicans is they'll need two-thirds support in the Legislature to take up and pass a new map to override a veto from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Kansas House Speaker Dan Hawkins has sought to pressure a group of 10 Republican lawmakers who refused to support a special session on the topic this fall to get on board.
“In some ways, I’ll be surprised if they even really bring it up,” Kelly said in a recent interview with the Kansas Reflector. “I don’t think a lot has changed in terms of where legislators stand on the issue.”
Kansas also has just one Democratic-held district for Republicans to target.
Maryland and Illinois
Similarly, Democrats' redistricting options are limited outside of Virginia. National Democrats have pointed to Maryland and Illinois, but lawmakers there have so far resisted pressure to redraw their maps.
In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore formed a redistricting commission last month to explore the issue, who voted behind closed doors last week to move forward with the process. If Democrats were to proceed, the lone GOP target would be Rep. Andy Harris' district.
But after declaring that his chamber would not take up a new map this fall, Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson has refused to budge.
“If we want to protect this democracy in the future, we have got to chart a different path,” Ferguson told NBC News in an interview earlier this year.
There's also been little traction in Illinois, where Black lawmakers is particular have expressed fear that a new map would undermine minority representation. Some Democrats hope that could squeeze an extra seat or two out of a state in which they already control 14 of 17 congressional districts.
Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker had previously said Illinois' redistricting efforts would hinge on whether Indiana enacted a new map. He applauded Indiana Republicans' decision to reject the redrawn map while promising to "remain vigilant against [Trump's] map rigging" in a post on X.
Another issue in Illinois: The candidate filing deadline already passed in early November.
Missouri
After Missouri Republicans passed a new map in September that carves up Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City area district, opponents are still fighting to prevent it from being in place for the midterms.
Earlier this month, a Democratic-backed group submitted nearly three times the required signatures to place a referendum on the ballot that seeks to repeal the map
While such a petition is considered, the law in question is typically put on hold in Missouri. But state officials said they won't pause the map until the signatures are verified, which could lead to further legal action.
If the petition is ultimately certified, it would be up to Missouri's Republican-dominated Legislature to determine when it would appear on the ballot.
Looming Supreme Court ruling
The biggest wild card is the Supreme Court, which signaled that it is leaning toward further weakening the Voting Rights Act, which was enacted to protect minority voters, as part of a Louisiana redistricting case.
If the justices ultimately rule that way, and the decision comes early in the year, it could open the floodgates for Republican-led states, particularly in the South, to carve up majority-Black districts represented by Democrats.
Louisiana’s Republican-controlled Legislature passed two bills in October to delay the state’s election calendar, a move designed to give lawmakers time to redraw their congressional map if the Supreme Court rules in their favor.
South Carolina Republicans have expressed interest in drawing a new map that unseats the state's only Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn, who represents a majority-Black district. And Republicans in Alabama, where Democrats control two districts, could also act.
But if the Supreme Court doesn’t issue a ruling until the end of its term in June — which it often does for major cases — it would likely mean any new maps that result from it wouldn't go into effect until after the 2026 election.
