Democrats are holding their own in the redistricting wars: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we examine how Democrats have managed to put up more of a fight than expected in the redistricting arms race. Plus, Steve Kornacki breaks down the areas of Virginia and New Jersey where Democrats saw the most improvement in last week’s elections.

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— Adam Wollner

Democrats are holding their own in the redistricting wars

When the national redistricting wars kicked off over the summer, Republicans held a clear edge: They simply held power in more states where they could control the map-drawing process.

Despite that structural advantage for the GOP, a series of developments over the past two weeks has allowed Democrats to be much more competitive in this fight than initially expected.

Utah: Late last night, a judge rejected a new congressional map drawn by the Legislature that was designed to protect Utah’s all-GOP delegation, ruling it violated the state’s anti-gerrymandering laws. Instead, the judge approved a separate map that includes a solidly Democratic district based in Salt Lake City.

California: Last Tuesday, California voters approved a new House map that allows Democrats to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission and potentially pick up an additional five seats in next year’s midterm elections. That could offset Republicans’ biggest redistricting move thus far in Texas.

Kansas: That same day, Republicans were dealt a setback when state House Speaker Dan Hawkins said he would not call a special session to consider new district lines, though lawmakers still may take up the issue next year. Republicans would need two-thirds support in the Legislature to overcome opposition from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

Virginia: The Friday before that, Virginia Democratic lawmakers passed a constitutional amendment that gives them the opportunity to bypass the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission and redraw the state’s congressional boundaries. The measure still needs to pass through a second legislative session next year and then be approved by voters. But the move — which largely came out of nowhere last month — could eventually result in a map that nets Democrats two or three seats.

Ohio: Also on that Friday, lawmakers on Ohio’s bipartisan redistricting commission approved a compromise map that favored Republicans but did not go as far as Democrats had feared.

The view from the White House: President Donald Trump’s political orbit is grappling with this reality. Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon and Henry J. Gomez report that Trump remains confident he picked the right fight by encouraging Republican-led states to pursue mid-decade redistricting efforts to shore up the party’s narrow House majority. In addition to Texas, Missouri and North Carolina have each enacted a new map that aims to give the GOP an extra seat.

But two other Republicans close to the White House told NBC News that there are growing concerns that the juice may not have been worth the squeeze and that, in a nightmare scenario, there’d be a net gain for Democrats.

On top of Democrats’ counter-punches, GOP consultant and data scientist John Eakin told NBC News that some Texas Republicans are regretting their aggressive map, worried that overconfidence in the 2024 results for Trump — which he describes as an exception, rather than a reliable baseline — could backfire.

“They should have never drawn maps based on the 2024 outcome. You can’t stress test that. You have to find the most vulnerable election and build the premise around that,” he said.

Next steps: There are many more shoes yet to drop. Several of the new maps this year are confronting lawsuits and potential ballot referendum campaigns. Indiana Republicans and Maryland Democrats are continuing to face pressure both in their states and nationally to redraw their district lines. States like Florida and New York may still join the fold. And a looming Supreme Court ruling could further open the gerrymandering floodgates, particularly in southern GOP states.

But for now, Democrats are holding their own in the redistricting battle as they set their sights on reclaiming the House majority in 2026.

Where Democrats made their biggest strides in Virginia and New Jersey

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Democrats Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey scored victories last week that represented massive improvements for their party from their states’ last gubernatorial elections in 2021. And a few key areas in each state stood out in particular.

In Virginia, Spanberger made notable gains throughout much of the state, turning what had been a narrow loss for Democrat Terry McAuliffe four years ago into a 15-point romp this time around.

One of her biggest improvements came in her home county, Henrico, a giant Richmond suburb that is the fifth-largest county in the state. It’s a Democratic stronghold, but while McAuliffe carried it by just under 20 points, Spanberger won by nearly 40. And in the other Richmond metro population hub, Chesterfield County, Spanberger turned a McAuliffe loss into an 18-point rout.

The three small cities with the highest concentrations of Hispanic residents — Manassas, Manassas Park and Harrisonburg — also produced outsize Democratic gains, among the largest in any of Virginia’s counties or independent cities.

But the area where Spanberger made the biggest strides is the I-95 growth corridor between northern Virginia and Richmond.

Stafford and Spotsylvania are among the fastest-growing counties in Virginia, where open space continues to give way to new development as white-collar professionals move in and the population diversifies. The small city of Fredericksburg sits on the line between these counties.

Similar growth and diversification long ago turned the immediate Washington, D.C., suburbs of northern Virginia into densely populated Democratic bastions that tipped the state from red to blue. The extension of this sprawl to Stafford and Spotsylvania offers Democrats the hope of reinforcing their hold on the state.

In New Jersey, where Sherrill defeated Jack Ciattarelli by 14 points, sizable Democratic gains were also common. With municipal-level results available from all but one of the state’s counties (rural Warren), we can pinpoint Sherrill’s most dramatic improvements compared to Gov. Phil Murphy’s 2021 performance. These are her five biggest:

These are small and mid-size communities that have sizable nonwhite populations. In particular, the Ciattarelli campaign had hoped that President Donald Trump’s strong performance with Hispanic voters last year would be a boost to Ciattarelli in these places. Instead, Ciattarelli fared substantially worse than he did when he ran for governor in 2021, and worse than Trump last year. But it’s also notable that the white voters in these towns tend to be more blue-collar and middle-class. That the floor apparently fell out for Ciattarelli with them is a surprise.

More from Steve: With the government shutdown now poised to end, it’s clear Republicans are in worse shape politically now than when it started. The question is whether that will prove to be temporary — as has been the case with past funding showdowns — or if the political atmosphere has been reset in a way that will linger into next year’s midterm elections. Keep reading →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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