TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Republican Sen. Rick Scott is set to place roughly $10 million in new TV ads in the homestretch of a Florida Senate race that he is widely seen as leading but that Democrats have continued to make noise in.
The Scott TV buy, first shared with NBC News, will focus mostly on the Tampa, Orlando and Miami media markets, with spot buys in other parts of the state, according to campaign advisers.
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He is running against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has been massively outspent but is getting some national help from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the race's final weeks.
The DSCC has pledged a “multimillion" dollar effort to help Mucarsel-Powell, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried announced Monday in a call with reporters. She was unable to provide a specific figure, and the DSCC declined to offer one. Last week, it said in a release that it was making a multimillion-dollar TV buy in both Florida in Texas but did not disclose specifics.
“That money is coming at the right time, and we are going to use it to make sure that we are building the infrastructure to get Debbie Mucarsel-Powell over the finish line [and] retire Rick Scott,” Fried said.
Regardless of whatever national money comes for Democrats, Scott will no doubt hold his long-running huge cash advantage. Scott has spent at least $8 million of his personal wealth, and the $10 million media buy is as much as Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign had spent total throughout the end of July. Scott’s campaign spent $20 million during that same time, according to the most recently available campaign finance reports.
“Our campaign has taken this race seriously from the beginning. We are in a strong position and keeping our feet on the gas through the end,” Scott adviser Chris Hartline said.
The race itself has been a bit off the national radar, as Florida is increasingly seen as a Republican stronghold. But Democrats have placed thousands of volunteers across the state and maintained consistent messaging framing Scott as “in trouble,” highlighting what has long been Scott’s relatively low approval rating for a politician who has never lost a statewide campaign in Florida.
“It's no surprise that polling shows this race tied — Floridians know that Rick Scott is far too extreme for our state," Mucarsel-Powell said. "For 14 years Rick Scott has ruthlessly attacked our freedoms, hard-earned benefits and economic opportunities. He has cut funding for our education, our veterans and our coastal communities as our state continues to face the effects of extreme weather, climate change and an affordability crisis that began under his watch."
Scott has generally run like an incumbent who expects to win. He has not debated Mucarsel-Powell and has focused on her less than she has on him — a common tactic for a candidate who thinks they are winning. His most consistent message has painted Mucarsel-Powell as “an open borders socialist.”
Public polling in the race has generally had Scott on top, but not by huge margins. He has been up anywhere from the high single digits to only a handful of percentage points. Because the race has been so close on paper, it has fueled Democrats' message that it is up for grabs.
New polling shared with NBC News from the GOP polling firm Tyson Group has Scott up 46-38, with 12% unsure, an 8-point margin — outside the margin of error — that is among the biggest polling gaps of the election cycle.
Hartline, the Scott adviser, said it’s margins like that that have them unconcerned even if national money does flow into the race.
“National Democrats can flirt with spending in Florida if they want and risk losing incumbent races,” he said. “We will have a big win either way.”
