TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The nation’s largest swing state is — for now, at least — turning into one of its most unseen.
Florida has historically been held up as a massively important state for any White House aspirant, and as a result has been on the receiving end of large candidate rallies, surrogate events and huge sums of national money fueling wall-to-wall campaign ads across the state’s 10 expensive media markets.
But for the first time in recent political memory, the 2024 presidential race has left Florida as a comparative afterthought. Democrats here have tried to maintain momentum and voter intensity, but nearly every measurable factor indicates that Florida is not realistically in play for them in this year's presidential contest.
“Are you happy we are a solid Republican state? It used to be …presidential elections, we would be on a razor’s edge about the state of Florida,” Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, told a crowd of the party faithful at a gathering last weekend at the Hard Rock Casino in South Florida. “Because if Republicans could not win the state of Florida, then you did not have a path to win the Electoral College.”
Florida has long been solidly red at the state level as Republicans built a now more than 1 million person voter registration advantage, and they remain firmly in control of nearly every lever of political power. But in the past, when huge sums of money flowed in during presidential races, the state was considered winnable for Democrats.
That money has almost completely dried up:
- In September 2020 alone, for instance, there was more than $57 million spent on Florida TV ads, $38 million from President Joe Biden’s campaign and $19 million from the Donald Trump campaign, according to AdImpact, a media buy tracking service.
- In 2022, a nonpresidential election cycle, national Democratic groups spent $2 million in the state, down from nearly $60 million in the previous midterm election.
- So far, during the 2024 election cycle, $2.1 million total has been spent on presidential campaign TV ads.
“The decrease in spending mirrors the election ratings provided by Cook Political Report, indicating that the statewide races were no longer as competitive as they had been in the past,” according to an AdImpact analysis of Florida’s cratering political ad spending totals.
The Florida Democratic Party has adopted the mantra in 2024 “something is happening in Florida,” a nod to the fact that no one expects them to win the state but, as they see it, there are certain metrics that are reasons for optimism not only this year but for general party- and infrastructure-rebuilding.
“With the work we have been doing and the grassroots momentum, Florida is competitive in 2024,” Florida Democratic Party Communications Director Eden Giagnorio said. "Now imagine what we could achieve with real investment."
The party's efforts to date includes knocking on 1.3 million doors, making 3.1 million phone calls and sending more than 10.9 million text messages. The party also points to the fact that several DeSantis-backed school board candidates lost during Florida’s Aug. 20 primary, the governor’s first real political loss in years.
“It’s a stark contrast to the Trump operation, which is virtually non-existent in Florida, as our organizing apparatus flexed its muscle to deliver a humiliating defeat to Ron DeSantis in the first real test of this election cycle,” read a memo circulated by the Florida Democratic Party.
The Harris campaign says it has 40,000 volunteers in the state — a number Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power says is inflated.
“We don’t talk about our ground game. They use Nikki Fried’s make-believe volunteer numbers," he said, referring to the Florida Democratic Party chairwoman.
Trump senior adviser Danielle Alvarez said Florida is “Trump Country.”
“Why does NBC keep having Matt Dixon waste his time on Florida stories?” she said, referring to this reporter. “It’s as embarrassing as Kamala Harris wasting her time in Florida.”
Florida has continued to attract the attention of public pollsters, whose surveys have offered a glimmer of hope, and a messaging boost, for Democrats. A Morning Consult Poll released last week had Trump over Harris by just 2 percentage points, while most other public surveys in recent weeks have had Trump up by 5 to 7 points.
Democrats have used those public polling numbers as an indication of momentum, but most public polling has still had the state outside of the 3.2-point victory Trump won in 2020, which at the time was seen as massive in a state that had long seen presidential contests decided on razor sharp margins.
Veteran Florida Democratic operative Steve Schale argued that even with a Harris loss, the state party can make some long-term gains, but with little spending in the state, an outright win remains unlikely.
“To the folks who keep asking me if Harris can win here, the answer is complicated,” Schale wrote. “The reality is their math doesn’t run through Florida — so without the kind of spend you need to get a win, the answer is almost surely no.”
He said that he is "realistic" about the idea that Harris has an uphill climb in Florida but added that Democrats in the state can see a silver lining regardless of outcome.
“My big hope is that all the volunteers who are here go out and register voters,” Schale said. “If we can rebuild realistic, permanent infrastructure, that’s a win.”
Harris’ campaign has made visits to the state, but none since she replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee in July.
After Tuesday night’s debate, her campaign is planning a swing state tour that does include Florida, but the planned Orlando-area rally will be hosted not by Harris, but her husband, Doug Emhoff. Last week, Harris campaign allies also started it “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida, a starting line Democrats hyped as a sign of national relevance.
“Torrential rain & widespread flooding could not stop Jacksonville from showing up for reproductive freedom & the #HarrisWalz bus tour!,” the campaign’s Florida social media account posted after the event in Jacksonville.
“F.L.A. IS. IN PLAY. #FLinPLAY,” they added.
