Higher gas prices will be only the start of the Iran war’s economic fallout if the conflict persists, analysts say. Cuts to Medicaid could force many hospitals to cut services or shut down. And a look at the dangers real estate agents face on the job.
Here’s what to know today.
Are gas prices just the start? Economic analysts warn the worst is yet to come.
Average U.S. gasoline prices have now hit $4 a gallon, the American Automobile Association said, as global oil prices continued to rise as the conflict between Iran, the U.S. and Israel entered its second month.
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Yesterday Brent crude oil, the global benchmark that heavily influences U.S. gas prices, climbed to $114 a barrel.
Motorists will have spent an additional $10 billion on gas by sometime this week compared to prewar levels, Patrick De Haan, chief analyst at Gas Buddy, estimates. That’s a decline of about $35 a month in disposable income.
Beyond the immediate knock-on effects from rising gas prices, the war’s disruption could come in waves — ones that will play out over weeks and months and leave few parts of the global economy untouched. Higher oil prices translate to higher costs throughout the economy as the expense of transporting goods, as well as raw materials and packaging costs, climbs.
And many analysts now say that the average annual rate of U.S. inflation will be around 3%, compared to the Fed’s 2% target. That’s an extra $150 a month for a household with $5,000 in monthly expenses.
The U.S. is less directly affected by global liquefied natural gas price increases thanks to its domestic supplies. However, the U.S. economy would not be fully insulated from a global economic slowdown.
Read more about the war’s economic effects, which are only starting to be felt.
Follow the latest on our liveblog.
More Iran war news:
- Are there talks to end the Iran war? It depends on which side you ask.
- One of Iran’s rising figures is using social media to take on President Donald Trump.
- The destruction of a warning and control system aircraft could affect the U.S. military’s ability to monitor threats.
ICE agents to ask for visitors' IDs at Marine Corps grad events
ICE agents will be stationed outside graduation events for the nation’s newest Marines to identify whether any of their family members are undocumented, according to the Marine Corps. It wasn’t clear why ICE had decided to station at the Marine Corps Recruit Depot at Parris Island in Beaufort, South Carolina, though the Marine Corps has boosted protection measures on its bases amid the war in Iran. Everyone will be required to present a REAL ID, U.S. passport or U.S. birth certificate to access the site.
Graduation is Friday morning, but family members are invited to visit the base and celebrate their loved ones’ completion of the grueling training beginning tomorrow. A spokesperson with the Department of Homeland Security said ICE would not be making any arrests.
More on the increased protection at military bases.
More politics news:
- Trump said the White House ballroom building plans include a “massive” underground military complex.
- Trump teased plans for his presidential library — a tall glass skyscraper in Miami.
- And his name might soon land on another public building: the Palm Beach International Airport.
- Several Jan. 6 riot participants filed a class action lawsuit over claims that police used excessive force against them.
Medicaid cuts threaten hundreds of hospitals
More than 400 hospitals across the country are at high risk of closing or cutting services because of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” according to a new analysis from the progressive watchdog group Public Citizen. The fallout could make it harder for millions of people to get care and put thousands of health care workers’ jobs at risk as hospitals lose a key source of federal funding. Medicaid covers about a fifth of all hospital spending.
About 60% of the hospitals identified in the analysis as at-risk are in urban areas. Black and Latino people stand to be the most affected by the cuts. The states with the largest number of at-risk hospitals are California, Illinois and New York.
Medicaid cuts come in phases, with more significant changes, including work requirements, in 2027 and limits on how states raise funds in 2028. Across the country, hospitals have already made statements warning they may need to lay off staff or scale back care because of Medicaid cuts.
What’s at jeopardy if patients have less access to health care.
Women’s Final Four bracket is set
The Connecticut Huskies, UCLA Bruins, Texas Longhorns and South Carolina Gamecocks are headed to the Final Four in the women’s NCAA Tournament, setting the stage for some of the game’s most storied schools and celebrated players to face off.
No. 1 Texas defeated No. 2 Michigan yesterday, 77-41, to reach its second straight Final Four and fifth overall in program history. And No. 1 South Carolina defeated No. 3 TCU, 78-52, giving the Gamecocks a chance to win a national championship for the fourth time under coach Dawn Staley.
Take a look at the teams’ strengths heading into the Final Four this Friday in Phoenix.
Read All About It
- A car ramming and shooting attack at a Michigan synagogue this month was a “Hezbollah inspired act of terrorism,” the FBI said.
- An American Airlines flight attendant who went missing in Colombia during a layover was found dead.
- A 15-year-old Texas student shot a teacher at a high school and then killed himself, law enforcement said. The teacher was hospitalized in unknown condition.
- Barbie’s dream fest? More like a nightmare warehouse, said disappointed fans who attended the event.
Staff Pick: A grim reminder for real estate agents
How safe are real estate agents? Until last week, I’d not given the question much thought.
But after reporting on a cold case arrest linked to an open house killing in Iowa — and learning of the wave of safety measures prompted by that fatal shooting — I spent days looking at industry data and talking with agents, officials and experts about how safe their day-to-day work actually is. What I found was unsettling — and calls into question whether the industry has done enough to protect the hundreds of thousands of agents who are the face of American real estate.
As one expert told me: “We need to really understand that real estate is one of the only professions where you meet strangers alone in private, enclosed spaces, with no standardized screening process. The entire industry has normalized that risk, so many people don’t even recognize that risk anymore.” — Tim Stelloh, reporter
NBC Select: Everything you should buy before Amazon’s Big Spring Sale ends
Today’s the last day to save big on household essentials, K-beauty must-haves and so much more with Amazon’s Big Spring Sale. Don’t know what to get? Our editor rounded up the best deals actually worth shopping.
Plus, does anyone really want a TV anymore — or do they just want art?
And 1,300+ shoppers gave this smart bird feeder with a camera a perfect rating. Now it’s 57% off.
Sign up to The Selection newsletter for hands-on product reviews, expert shopping tips and a look at the best deals and sales each week.
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