Vice President Kamala Harris is favored by Latinos in Spanish-speaking and bilingual households at a higher rate than in English-speaking ones, according to a new poll on Latino eligible voters.
The poll of 3,000 Latinos surveyed Aug. 3-23 shows 59% said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, compared to 32% for Trump.
But among English-dominant Latino households, Harris’ lead over Trump significantly tightens. Just over half, 51%, of the English-speaking households support Harris, while Trump’s support among such households rises to 38%.
In Spanish-dominant households, Harris draws 64% of Latino voters, while Trump drops to 30%. In bilingual households, Latinos polled split 54% for Harris, 33% for Trump.
The poll released by UnidosUS, the largest Latino advocacy group, was done by BSP Research, a Democratic polling firm whose co-founder, Matt Baretto, also is a pollster for Harris. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 1.8% and a quarter of respondents took the survey in Spanish.
UnidosUS Action Fund, the political arm of UnidosUS, has endorsed Harris.
Clarissa Martinez de Castro, UnidosUS vice president for Latino Vote Initiative, said the Latino voters who are more comfortable speaking in Spanish “see a higher level of alignment with the Democratic Party” when it comes to their values.
For example, when asked which party shares their values or is closer to their values when it comes to their views on the American Dream, 55% of those in Spanish-speaking households chose Democrats, and 22% picked Republicans. In English-speaking households, it was 39% Democrats and 25% Republicans. In bilingual households, the split was 39% Democrats, 33% Republicans.
Martinez de Castro also pointed out that English-speaking households were more likely to report that they had not been contacted by anyone from a political party, campaign or other organization than Spanish-speaking households, 64% to 55%. For bilingual households, 46% said they were not contacted.
Generally, about 75% of Latinos are able to speak Spanish pretty well or very well, and 63% speak Spanglish, a mix of both languages, Pew Research Center reported last year.
“The group that is most pro-Democratic are recently naturalized, it is the immigrants themselves. That wanes considerably in the second and massively in the third and fourth generation, said Mike Madrid, author of “The Latino Century” and a Republican consultant who does not support Trump. About 76% of Hispanic eligible voters are U.S.-born, according to Pew.
Madrid said the Harris campaign seems to recognize this because of its focus on housing and health care costs and taking a more moderate view on border security — which appeals to a broader swath of Latino and other voters.
“They are talking about what Latinos told us they want to hear about,” Madrid said.
President Joe Biden, who dropped out of this year’s presidential race amid poor polling numbers, drew 65% of the overall share of votes cast by Latinos in 2020, compared to Trump’s 32%, NBC News exit polls showed.
But his numbers were seriously lagging after his disastrous debate performance, as with other groups. A July Pew Research Center poll showed him tied with Trump among Hispanic registered voters at 36%.
Roberto Suro, a professor of journalism and public policy at University of Southern California, said Harris’ overall polling with Hispanics show she had “righted the ship,” as with other constituencies. But, he added, “59% is not a good number for a Democrat with Latinos at all,” Suro said.
“Harris has made up most of the ground that Biden lost in the last year,” he said. “But it’s still very much a horse race and she’s not necessarily ahead,” because she has yet to match the 65% share of Latino voters Biden captured in 2020.
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