The voters who put President Donald Trump back in the White House last year still largely support him. But they are increasingly disagreeing with the president on issues like the economy and immigration, raising questions about the strength of his coalition heading into a midterm election year.
That’s the upshot of a year of focus group conversations diving into different key groups of Trump’s 2024 base of support, which were observed by NBC News and produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago. The groups included more than 50 Black, Hispanic and young voters who voted for Trump, as well as Trump voters who decided to back Democrats in this year’s New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections.
Consistent themes emerged across those conversations with different groups of Trump voters in March, June, September and December.
Few are fully off the Trump train, though a handful are. A larger group, though, have started raising concerns, primarily around what they see as a lack of follow-through on tackling inflation and the cost of living, which were key reasons they voted for Trump in 2024. An overlapping group also balked at the administration’s deportation policies.
And while voters in the focus groups during the first half of 2025 were almost unanimous in approving of Trump’s job performance, albeit with some hesitations, the drumbeat of frustration has grown louder as the year draws to a close.
"Many of these voters gave President Trump a long runway well into the summer because they believed that he understands how business works better than they do and that his own fortune would eventually translate to enriching the country and their own finances or because they felt so strongly that unchecked immigration was a huge problem that needed a huge fix," said Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship.
"But as the year wore on, we have seen a shift among these voters collectively, cracks in their faith, more questioning, oscillating or outright change of heart about Trump," Talev continued. "What we almost never see is a wish for a do-over vote or a rush toward Democrats for the answer.
All about the economy
Perspectives shifted across groups and across the course of the year, but a few major constants were clear.
Trump supporters in these groups were divided from the start over the president’s use of tariffs — caught between the promise of an “America First” remaking of international economics and frustration with an erratic rollout and the effect the tariffs had on prices.
Some voters expressed disappointment that the president hasn’t made tackling inflation a higher priority and wanted to see more tangible progress in his pledge to lower prices across the board — a thing that essentially never happens except in moments of economic calamity.
But many are willing to give Trump grace, arguing that change takes time or that life would be worse under a Democratic president.
Rozlyn C., a 44-year-old Georgia voter of Cuban descent, said that she disagreed with the president’s decision to impose tariffs on countries with which the U.S. did not have a trade deficit. But she was still broadly supportive of the president in the June focus group with swing-state Latino voters who backed Trump.
“I think he has a grand master plan that most of us probably don’t understand,” she said, adding, “I have faith that he, a hundred percent, has the best interest of our country at heart.”
Fewer than half of Trump voters across the four focus groups said they felt that Trump had made fighting inflation a top priority, though some were still willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt or said they were seeing signs things had improved.
“I expected him to be aggressive in a lot of different areas and he’s doing exactly that — being aggressive in a lot of different areas of focus that concern the U.S. citizens. Every few days you’re hearing something different and you’re constantly seeing him at work, working, getting stuff done,” said 56-year-old independent Dorris S., who participated in the March group of swing-state Black Trump voters.
But a number of others were less charitable on Trump’s inflation efforts, particularly toward the end of the year.
Robert L., a 54-year-old Virginian who participated in a December group of Trump voters who backed a Democrat for governor in November elections, said that the president’s comments about inflation improving are “delusional” and prove he’s “out of touch.”
Another participant in that same December panel, 39-year-old Virginian Justin K., said that he doesn’t think Trump “tried at all” to tackle inflation because he was focused on other things.
“He’s been focused on prosecuting his political enemies, pardoning people,” he said.
“I don’t even think that there’s much a president can do on inflation, but I think that this was a kind of situation where he just said it to get elected,” Justin continued.
Rich Thau of Engagious, who moderated the sessions, told NBC News that from the focus groups, "it’s clear President Trump’s greatest vulnerability is being viewed as ineffective and insulated when it comes to inflation—just like President Biden was."
Tariffs divide theory versus practice
Trump’s tariff policy also revealed an important divide, between those who were hopeful that a short stretch of instability would pay future dividends and others concerned about uncertainty or hurting businesses and consumers.
“I think that it’s ridiculous that we haven’t been charging tariffs for decades and we’re starting to equalize it,” Hector L., a 55-year-old North Carolina voter who was born in Puerto Rico, said in June.
“Other countries charge us particular tariffs for our goods; it’s only fair that we make it equal across the playing board — no imbalance, that’s been the problem. And he’s trying to bring balance, to the force, per se, of tariffs,” William A., a 60-year-old Georgia voter of Puerto Rican descent, said during the June panel.
But David S., a 47-year-old New Jersey Trump voter who cast his ballot for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill last month, put it differently in December.
“Tariffs are a tax on the American people. That’s who pays for it, so I don’t support it,” he said. “Every tariff that is put in place, from when Biden is putting ‘em in place, Trump putting them in place, they are taxes on the people who are importing. The people who are buying those imports are paying the tax.”
Overall, some were optimistic about the economic outlook under Trump. And one of the things that brought out this sentiment most was considering a hypothetical under a Democratic administration.
“I feel that if we were in the hands of Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, that our country would be doing a lot worse than it already was. I feel like Trump has amended some of those wrongs that were done,” Harmony D., a 26-year-old Michigander who identifies as an independent and voted for Trump twice, said in October.
But others see Trump’s populist economic pitch falling short in practice.
“It’s a bait and switch with him where he said he was for the average person but he actually favors big business, and then just does whatever he wants and there’s no consequences,” Virginia’s Justin K. said.
High marks on immigration, but deportation concerns
Immigration was a major piece of Trump’s promise during the 2024 campaign, and most Trump voters were supportive of his measures to clamp down on illegal border crossings.
But the focus groups also highlighted significant criticisms of the administration’s deportation policies, with voters believing Trump wasn’t properly prioritizing the removal of violent criminals over the removal of undocumented immigrants who posed little public safety threat. Some Trump voters directly panned the deportation policies as inhumane.
“When it comes to immigration, a lot of respondents told us this year, ‘I like what the President is doing, but I don’t like how he’s doing it.’ This suggests they’re struggling to reconcile their vote for the President with executive actions they find troubling,” said Rich Thau of Engagious.
Rebecca H., a 52-year-old independent from Virginia, said in December that she approves of how Trump is "tightening the border control" and "restricting the refugees." But she didn't like how U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was "kidnapping people," she said, as it makes arrests.
Katelyn R., a 21-year-old Wisconsin independent who participated in the October focus group of young Trump voters, invoked “pro-life” values to question the morality of the deportation policies.
“The way that these people are being treated don’t align with my Christian values, or my pro-life values, or any of the values that a conservative may have,” she said.
And Ruby L., a 59-year-old Georgia voter who was born in Colombia and participated in the Hispanic focus group in June, questioned the administration’s priorities on the issue.
“He was going to deport people that were criminals and have backgrounds,” she said. “But I see that he’s deporting people that work hard and have been in this country. I think he should find a way to help them stay and get citizenship or something.”
Others were less forgiving of those in America illegally, arguing that they knew the risks when they or their families came to the country.
“Well, what do you expect? If you came here illegally, you’ve done something illegal. Expect the consequences,” Justin O., a 38-year-old Nevadan who was born in the United States and is of Mexican descent, said during the June group.
