Look to 2022 for the root cause of House GOP’s dysfunction

Happening this Friday: Israel orders 1 million Gaza residents to evacuate northern Gaza… Latest death toll stands at approximately 1,300 Israelis and more than 1,500 Palestinians… Steve Scalise withdraws from speaker race, throwing House GOP into more turmoil… Several Republican 2024 hopefuls attend New Hampshire conference, as Mike Pence and Nikki Haley file their declaration of candidacy in the Granite State… And Louisiana holds its gubernatorial primary on Saturday. 

But FIRST… Earlier this year, it took Kevin McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to become speaker. 

Then last week, enough Republicans voted to oust him as speaker.

And last night, the House’s No. 2 in leadership — Steve Scalise — withdrew from the contest to replace McCarthy as speaker, while the other contender — Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio — appears to have trouble with GOP moderates to get the 217 votes needed to win the position. 

Why all the GOP dysfunction? 

There’s a simple explanation: Due to the Republicans’ disappointing underperformance in the 2022 midterms, they never had a sizeable-enough majority to govern. 

Last election cycle, House GOP strategists knew they needed to be at 225 to 235 seats to hold a governable majority, given the handful of their members who are always difficult to bring in line. 

Instead, House Republicans right now are sitting at 221 seats.

As Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter pointed out last week, “McCarthy was able to convince Trump to helpfully stay out of primaries in many cases, but extremely weak MAGA-style candidates such as Sarah Palin (AK-AL), John Gibbs (MI-03) Karoline Leavitt (NH-01), Bo Hines (NC-13), J.R. Majewski (OH-09) and Joe Kent (WA-03) still got through and cost Republicans otherwise winnable seats. Tuesday’s motion to vacate wouldn’t have passed if conventional Republicans (rather than Democrats) held those seats.” 

Of course, Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats effectively governed the House at 221 to 222 seats in the previous Congress. 

But that’s the other reason for the GOP’s dysfunction: They have enough members who are so difficult for the party to corral for votes, they need a larger majority to govern. 

And they didn’t get that larger majority in the 2022 midterms.

“If you see smoke, it’s not a speaker, someone just set the place on fire.”

— Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, about the House Republican Conference’s struggle to select a speaker.

That’s the number of candidates on the ballot Saturday in the Louisiana gubernatorial election’s open primary. The candidates are running to succeed Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who is term-limited, in the deep-red Pelican State. 

State Attorney General Jeff Landry leads the Republican candidates, touting endorsements from former President Donald Trump, Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La. and Louisiana GOP Reps. Steve Scalise, Clay Higgins and Mike Johnson.

And former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson is the top Democrat in the race. He’s been endorsed by the state Democratic Party and Rep. Troy Carter, D-La. 

Candidates from all parties will run on the same ballot this weekend. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, he or she wins the race outright. But if no candidate wins a majority, the top two vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to a Nov. 18 runoff.

Ron Harris, a Democratic National Committee member who once worked for the city of Minneapolis, announced Friday that he’ll challenge Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., in the primary for his congressional seat next year.

Phillips has emerged as a vocal critic of President Joe Biden’s re-election bid, telling Politico back in February, “Considering his age, it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.” Phillips has even considered challenging Biden in the primary himself. 

As recently as September, Phillips said, “I haven’t ruled it out.”

Phillips is one of the few Democrats willing to publicly criticize Biden’s age, though the September NBC News national poll showed it’s a major concern for all voters.

Biden is the oldest president to ever be elected and would keep that title if he wins again next year. But, if former President Donald Trump — who is just three years younger than Biden — wins the GOP nomination for president and beats Biden, he would take on that record.

In other campaign news…

Rivals respond: Some of former President Donald Trump’s rivals for the GOP nomination criticized his recent comments that Hezbollah is “very smart” and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “let us down,” per Politico.

An Opportunity for DeSantis and Haley: Representatives from Haley and DeSantis’ campaigns will make their cases on Friday to a group of GOP donors, known as the American Opportunity Alliance, that are looking for a Trump alternative, NBC News’ Matt Dixon and Jonathan Allen report.

Haley-mentum? Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley saw a slight increase in support in the latest Fox News poll, but Trump is still dominating the field with support from 59% of the GOP voters surveyed. 

Arguing on the airwaves: Haley and tech entrepreneur Ramaswamy traded barbs in separate Fox News interviews last night, NBC’s Gregory Hyatt and Katherine Koretski report. Haley pushed back on Ramaswamy’s earlier comments that she’d like to get rich off the war in Israel and Ramaswamy accused host Sean Hannity of mischaracterizing what he said. 

More charges for Menendez: Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., is facing new charges relating to bribery and accusations that he acted as a foreign agent to benefit Egypt. Menendez has not yet said if he is running for re-election next year. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who is challenging Menendez in the primary, called on the Senate to expel Menendez amid the new charges.

Gold in California: California Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s Senate campaign announced Thursday that she raised $3.4 million in the third fundraising quarter, per a press release.

Ruben’s run: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is looking to engage Native American voters in his campaign for Senate in Arizona, per the New York Times.

Abortion on the ballot: Advocates working to put a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights in Florida are concerned that national Democrats are not engaged in the effort and are abandoning them given Republicans’ recent successes in the state, per NBC’s Dixon.

As calls for attacks against the Jewish community grow louder online, law enforcement agencies across the U.S. are stepping up their patrols of Jewish houses of worship, Israeli diplomatic buildings and Jewish businesses.

Those who receive Social Security benefits will get a 3.2% cost of living increase in their payments next year, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday.

A former contractor with the Internal Revenue Service pleaded guilty Thursday for stealing Trump’s and others’ tax records and leaking them to the press.