Scientists have built a computer model that could help limit damage by predicting the strength of hurricane activity in the United States.
The model uses anomalies in wind patterns during July over the United States, the east Pacific and North Atlantic to forecast what will happen during the height of the U.S. hurricane period from August to October.
“We have developed a model for predicting the strength of hurricane activity striking the United States for the main hurricane season,” Mark Saunders, of University College London, told Reuters.
“It is something scientists have been trying to do for over two decades.”
Published in Nature
Saunders and fellow researcher Adam Lea found that the strength and direction of the anomalies over six key areas enabled them to make a useful forecast.
“This model predicts the strength of the hurricane season as a whole for strikes on North America,” said Saunders, who reported the findings in the science journal Nature. “It tells you the likelihood of high or low hurricane damage.”
The long-term average for the Atlantic basin is 9.6 storms and 5.9 hurricanes including 2.3 intense hurricanes. But during the 2004 season there were 15 tropical storms. Nine developed into hurricanes.
A storm becomes a tropical storm and is named when it has winds of more than 39 miles per hour. Once the wind speed gets to 74 mph or greater it is classified a hurricane.
Tested using past hurricanes
Saunders and Lea tested the accuracy of their computer model by retrospectively predicting hurricane activity over the last 50 years. They successfully forecast whether the hurricane activity was stronger or weaker in the majority of seasons.
“The main benefit is that it will reduce any financial risk and uncertainty that any company or government faces with the upcoming hurricane season,” Saunders said.
Last year’s hurricane season, which was one of the most destructive ever recorded, caused billions of dollars of damage. It included 15 tropical storms, including nine that grew into hurricanes.
American researchers have predicted the 2005 season will also be fierce.
Saunders and Lea’s forecast for the 2005 season will be available at www.tropicalstormrisk.com on August 4.
