With one weekend left in baseball's regular season, almost nothing about the playoffs is certain except for this: Next week, two of the four first-round series will open in New York, with the Yankees and Mets hosting and with the Statue of Liberty beckoning to all who harbor World Series dreams: "Bring me your flawed, your sputtering, your huddled, injured masses who yearn to spew champagne all over one another."
Indeed, scanning the lists of teams who, entering yesterday's play, had already clinched playoff spots (the Yankees, Mets, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins) and the list of those still in contention with three games to play (St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies), one would be hard-pressed to identify a single team without serious flaws and serious questions.
Partly as a result, none of the four first-round matchups set for next week is locked in as the weekend begins. Both Central Division titles, for example, are up for grabs, featuring first-place teams whose once-unassailable leads are being assailed, while the National League's final weekend features a three-team race for two spots among the Padres, Dodgers and Phillies.
"None of us know where we're going to be at the beginning of next week," veteran Phillies catcher Mike Lieberthal said. "We just hope it's not sitting at home."
Things are so unsettled, in fact, that in the NL there exists a possible scenario whereby the regular season is extended to Monday (for a Cardinals-Giants makeup game), or even Tuesday (for a Cardinals-Astros one-game playoff), to decide whether the Cardinals — teetering on the edge of a historic collapse — are worthy of the postseason.
"If you're not 18 or 20 games over .500," Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa told reporters on Wednesday night, "you're going to have yourself a club that has some issues." His team went from 11 games above .500 just 10 days ago to only four games above .500 after last night's loss to Milwaukee.
If by "issues" La Russa means "hideous, damning flaws," he could be speaking not only for the Cardinals, but for many of the World Series title-seekers stumbling to the regular season finish line this weekend. Consider these issues lingering over some of the supposedly best teams in baseball:
- The Cardinals' lead over the Astros in the NL Central, which stood at seven games at the end of play on Sept. 19, is down to a half-game, thanks to the Astros' nine-game winning streak and the Cardinals' own seven-game losing streak, which ended Wednesday night on Albert Pujols's three-run, eighth-inning homer.
Thus, the Cardinals remain in jeopardy of being linked forever with the 1964 "Pholdin' " Phillies, who blew a 6 1/2 -game lead with 12 to play, as the biggest late-September chokers in history.
But think about this as well: If the Cardinals are still in first place today after enduring losing streaks this season of eight, eight and seven games, what does it say about the Astros (and Reds, for that matter) that they have failed to catch St. Louis?
- The Mets, still eight games better (through Wednesday) than anyone else in the NL, are an unsightly 12-15 in September. The Tigers, the winningest team in the AL for much of the season, are only 12-13 in September, allowing the Yankees to pass them for best record in the league and letting the Twins tie them in the AL Central.
With the AL Central loser ensured of winning the wild card, both the Tigers and Twins have deemed it more important to set up their postseason rotations than to go all-out for the division title — which is why aces Justin Verlander and Johan Santana, respectively, are being held out until the playoffs start.
- The Phillies, full of holes in their bullpen, have become the Kings of Winning Ugly — highlighted by their performance Wednesday night at RFK Stadium, when they blew two saves, committed four errors and left 15 runners on base, yet still beat the Washington Nationals, 8-7, in 14 innings.
"We've got all the fight in the world," Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel said afterward, "but we've got to play better."
- And finally, everyone, it seems, has a major health question involving a key member of their starting rotation.
For the Mets, ace Pedro Martinez, who was crushed Wednesday night in his final regular season start, is out for the entire postseason because of a calf injury. So your Game 1 starter for the best team in the NL? That would be Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez.
For the Yankees, Randy Johnson's bad back, which forced him out of his last start and scratched his scheduled start last night, has pushed him back to Game 3 of the Division Series — which means he will have gone nearly two weeks between starts when he finally takes the mound.
For the Athletics, ace Rich Harden, who returned last week after missing more than three months with an elbow injury, is trying to build up his pitch-count in order to join the A's postseason rotation — but some question whether he can do it, or whether it's wise to even try.
For the Twins, who have already lost rookie phenom Francisco Liriano — he of the 12-3 record and Cy Young-caliber first half — last night received a solid effort from Brad Radke, who is pitching with a torn labrum and a stress fracture in his shoulder. Amazingly, with Liriano and Radke out for most of the last month, the Twins have surged to a playoff berth without their No. 2 and No. 3 starters.
For the Tigers, Verlander's second-half swoon — he was 10-4 with a 3.01 ERA before the break, but only 7-5 with a 4.54 ERA since — has raised questions as to whether he is suffering from simple arm fatigue, having thrown 186 innings already this season after throwing only 130 combined last year in the major and minor leagues.
And for the Cardinals, ace Chris Carpenter, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has lost his last two starts — two of the seven "L's" in the Cards' debilitating seven-game losing streak. Both times, he appeared to tire at the end.
So for one final weekend that leads to one glorious month, bring us your infirm, your arm-fatigued, your fried and your frazzled. After all, somebody has to win this thing.
