India is unlikely to agree to any emission caps in the next phase of the Kyoto Protocol because of its expanding energy-hungry economy, but analysts say developed nations will continue to pile pressure on the nation.
Asia’s third-largest economy and home to about a sixth of humanity has some of the most polluted cities in the world, many of them continually shrouded in eye-stinging smog of noxious fumes from cars and industry.
Its growing energy needs are only expected to increase along with pollution levels in the next few decades, despite growing fears that global warming will spare no one.
The Kyoto climate change pact requires developed nations to cut their emissions of heat-trapping gases by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The United States and Australia refused to ratify the pact and developing nations such as China and India are exempt from emissions caps all four countries say threaten economic growth.
Summit in Canada
China’s appetite for oil and coal is even greater than India’s. Both are likely to come under pressure to do more to curb emissions growth when they join officials from 150 countries in Montreal for a U.N. climate change summit.
The Montreal meeting from November 28 will help shape the Kyoto Protocol after its first phase ends in 2012, but disagreement is rife and hopes of progress slim.
“There is no way that anybody can expect countries like India to cap their emissions for the next 20-25 years,” said S.K. Joshi, a senior official in the environment ministry.
“We welcome the talks among the parties for the second commitment period strictly in accordance with the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. The issue of entitlements has to be addressed and the countries that have agreed to take on commitments under the protocol have to show demonstrable progress.”
Many scientists blame the rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, over the past century for causing global warming, the worst effects of which could include rising seas, greater extremes of drought and flood and more intense storms.
India's emissions growth
While India’s cities might be hugely polluted because of the furious pace of industrialization, the country’s per capita emissions were still relatively low at 0.25 tons of carbon in 2001, which is less than a quarter of the world average and many times less than the United States.
At the same time, India’s contribution to world carbon emissions is expected to grow at an average 3 percent a year until 2025, compared with 1.5 percent in the United States, because of ambitious expansion plans in the energy sector.
According to industry estimates, India’s oil consumption is expected to grow to 2.8 million barrels per day by 2010 from 2.65 million barrels per day in 2004.
In an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions by developing energy technology, India became one of six countries -- along with the United States, China, Australia, India and South Korea -- to form the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate in July.
“By joining the partnership we have not compromised our position in any manner. This is complementing the Kyoto Protocol. This is one more approach, an alternative approach to the whole process of addressing the climate change issue,” Joshi said.
Environmentalists say India should not agree to any binding commitments after 2012.
“Kyoto is too little and too late. Nobody can say it’s an effective mechanism to control climate change,” said Sunita Narain, head of the Center for Science and Environment, a leading environmental group.
“There have been no major structural changes to combat climate change in the North. The use of fossil fuels continues. And pressure will continue to grow on India and China to take on commitments.”
