Consumer survey shows record-high optimism toward the stock market, even as election looms

Despite increased market volatility stemming from the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, consumer confidence toward equities has reached its most bullish point ever.

The latest Consumer Confidence survey by The Conference Board showed 51.4% of participants — the highest level on record — expect stocks to rise over the next year.

This is despite rising uncertainty in the markets from the looming election, evidenced by the stock market’s inability to score further gains on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 0.6% Monday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each lost about 0.3%.

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Such optimism is not shared by the BTIG investment bank. The record-high consumer confidence in the stock market is “something that makes us say: hmm,” chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note on Sunday.

Krinsky noted that bonds remain “slippery,” with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially climbing back to 4.5%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was last down around 5 basis points at 4.315%.

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The “Magnificent Seven,” which has powered much of the market’s rally over the past two years, is also at a critical point, according to Krinsky. Six of the seven companies in the megacap basket of stocks have reported their quarterly earnings, with chipmaker Nvidia slated to announce results on Nov. 16.

“The index is left at an important juncture,” Krinsky said of the S&P 500. “It has a ‘potential’ double top, but it has yet to break its uptrend. Perhaps this week will provide further clarity.”

Of the broader market, he added: “If last week was the appetizer, this week should be the main course with the election followed” by the two-day meeting of the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve.