LONDON — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had a narrow escape this month, when tremors from the Jeffrey Epstein files shook his leadership and threatened to bring him down.
He now faces new danger from a special election Thursday in northwest England, where his center-left Labour Party could face defeat in a three-way race with the hard-line anti-immigration party Reform UK and the self-styled “eco-populist” Green Party.
Losing to either would drive home to Labour members how unpopular the prime minister is with voters on both left and right.
The Gorton and Denton constituency in Greater Manchester elected Labour lawmakers for almost all of the last century, but Starmer’s government has seen its popularity plunge since it won office in July 2024.
Local polling and betting markets make it too close to call between Labour local councilor Angeliki Stogia, academic-turned-pundit Matthew Goodwin for Reform UK, and the Greens’ Hannah Spencer, a plumber.
The anti-immigration Reform UK, led by the veteran hard-right politician Nigel Farage, holds just eight of the 650 seats in the House of Commons — Labour has 404 — but has topped national opinion polls for months, ahead of both Labour and the main opposition Conservative Party.
The Green Party has four seats, but under “eco-populist” leader Zack Polanski has expanded beyond environmental concerns to focus on issues including support for the Palestinian cause and the legalization of drugs.
Both Labour and the Greens claim to be best-placed to stop a Reform victory.
“Voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win,” said Spencer, the party’s candidate.
Starmer said voters’ choice “could not be more stark: unity or division.”
Reform leader Nigel Farage said electors should “vote Reform to ditch Starmer.”
The outcome of the election, which was triggered by the resignation of the area’s former Labour lawmaker, is hard to call, in a diverse area that has traditional working-class neighborhoods — once strongly Labour, now tilting toward Reform — as well as large numbers of university students and Muslim residents. Many of them feel disillusioned by Labour’s centrist shift under Starmer and the government’s perceived slowness at criticizing Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas in Gaza — fertile ground for the Green Party.
Polls close at 5 p.m. ET, with results due some hours later.
Starmer has endured a string of setbacks since he led Labour to a landslide election victory in July 2024. He has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living. He pledged a return to honest government after 14 years of Conservative government that ended in scandals and chaos but has been beset by missteps and U-turns over welfare cuts and other unpopular policies.
The next national election does not have to be held until 2029, meaning the main threat to Starmer comes from within his own party.
A Labour win in Gorton and Denton may give Starmer a reprieve from party opponents who are considering whether to ditch him for a new leader. Starmer had a narrow escape earlier this month as party discontent spiked after revelations about the relationship between sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Mandelson, the veteran Labour politician appointed by Starmer to be U.K. ambassador to Washington.
Defeat would underscore that the depth of Labour’s unpopularity and the challenge it faces from both left and right.
