Trump's new peace plan unsettles Ukraine at a moment of maximum weakness

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office said it had received a draft plan from the U.S., but there are few details about what concessions might be needed to end the war.
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KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainians were in the dark Thursday.

As the latest wave of Russian drones plunged parts of the country into frigid blackouts, there was disquiet in Kyiv and across Europe over the new 28-point “peace plan” approved by President Donald Trump, as a senior administration official told NBC News, after weeks of secret negotiations.

Ukraine and its allies on the continent have been frozen out of talks between Washington and Moscow before, and there was conflicting information about whether they were involved this time.

A senior U.S. official told NBC News on Thursday that Ukraine had been part of the discussions about the plan.

“This plan was drawn up immediately following discussions with one of the most senior members of President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy’s administration, Rustem Umerov, who agreed to the majority of the plan, after making several modifications, and presented it to President Zelenskyy," the senior U.S. official said.

Zelenskyy’s office said he had “received a draft plan from the American side” in a statement on Telegram.

After a meeting with U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll on Thursday, Zelenskyy said there would be “constructive, honest and swift work” on an effort to end the war, while the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said on X that “momentum is finally on the side of peace.”

No details about the plan have been officially released. A source familiar with the matter told NBC News that the 28-point plan reported by Axios on Thursday is accurate. It is currently in draft mode but reflects where the parties stand at the moment, according to the source.

“It reflects both Russian and Ukrainian feedback,” the source said.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back Thursday at reports that the terms of the plan are favorable to Russia and maintained that Ukraine had been consulted on it.

She said that Trump had grown “increasingly frustrated” with both countries but that they had been engaged “equally” as Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio worked on the proposals.

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, noted on Thursday that the U.S. had put in a lot of effort to stop the conflict.

"The United States has invested at the highest levels, the president of the United States personally, to end this war. We have proposed generous terms for Russia, including sanctions relief. We have asked Russia to halt its attacks and meet directly with Ukraine to negotiate a peaceful settlement," he said. "Unfortunately, the fighting continues, tragically causing more civilian casualties."

He added, "We can impose further economic costs if Russia continues to ignore calls for a ceasefire. We will also continue to make weapons available for Ukraine’s defense."

But the swirling sense that the plan may resemble a Russian wish list threatened a nightmare scenario for Ukraine at a moment of particular peril, with its government mired in a corruption scandal and its military struggling to hold off damaging battlefield setbacks.

Image: A heavily damaged residential building, missing structure in the top right corner, is operated on by rescue services
Ukrainian rescue personnel operate at the site of a heavily damaged residential building after a Russian airstrike in the city of Ternopil on Wednesday.Yuriy Dyachyshyn / AFP via Getty Images

Zelenskyy has come under intense pressure this week from his political opponents, who are extremely wary of any deal that would necessitate the country’s capitulation.

“I am not entirely sure who has actually worked on this particular plan,” opposition lawmaker Vadym Ivanchenko said in an interview. “No one has presented it officially or explained the logic behind its points.” The points being discussed in the media, he said, appear to “be at odds with Ukraine’s interests.”

The U.S. official who spoke to NBC News about the plan said that both Russian and Ukrainian officials were involved in the discussions, but that was at odds with a source close to the Ukrainian government and a European official with knowledge of the matter.

The U.S. official also confirmed reports that Keith Kellogg, the special envoy to Ukraine who had been widely seen as closer to Kyiv, is expected to step down at the end of the year.

The Kremlin has meanwhile remained noncommittal on peace plans.

“Is it true or not?” Sergei Markov, a commentator and a former adviser to President Vladimir Putin, told NBC News about whether a deal had been struck. “We don’t know.”

In Kyiv, the timing of the plan was viewed as no coincidence, the source close to the Ukrainian government said, most likely an attempt by the Kremlin to take full advantage at an acutely challenging time: Not only do the drones keep falling on its cities, but Russian forces also appear poised to overrun the strategic town of Pokrovsk, a key battlefield victory that could open up the rest of Ukraine’s Donbas heartland to the Russian war machine — if it isn’t dealt away under pressure from Washington.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has been rocked by a $100 million corruption scandal implicating one of his close associates, senior government officials and the country’s vital state-run energy company. He also faces pressure to fire his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, often seen as the power behind the throne.

Ivanchenko, a lawmaker for the Batkivshchyna political party led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, conceded that “we find ourselves in a somewhat vulnerable position.”

It is “not a catastrophe, not a defeat,” he said. “But also not the position of strength in which we would ideally enter any negotiations.”

Front-line Orikhiv in southeastern Ukraine suffers from daily Russian shelling
A Ukrainian soldier watches for a Russian drone from a maternity hospital in the front-line town of Orikhiv, in the Zaporizhzhia region, on Nov. 13.Dmytro Smolienko / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Asked Wednesday whether “only” Trump can end this war, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas gave a blunt “no.”

“In order to end this war, you need the Ukrainians and the Europeans to agree to those plans,” she told reporters. A succession of European foreign ministers, meeting with Kallas in Brussels, expressed caution but made it clear they wouldn’t allow Kyiv to be forced into capitulation.

Ukrainian officials have little choice, in public at least, to be positive about U.S. efforts — Zelenskyy found that out the hard way through an Oval Office humiliation by Trump. Since then, a series of summits and meetings have seen Trump appear to waver between favoring Russia or Ukraine and then slipping back again.

“I have a good relationship with President Putin, but I’m a little disappointed in President Putin right now. He knows that,” Trump sad at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum on Wednesday.

Rubio struck a balanced tone on X, saying that a “durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”

Briefing of Ukrainian President following Staff meeting in Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, at a briefing at the presidential office in Kyiv on Nov. 7.Pavlo Bahmut / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Alyona Getmanchuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO, said in an interview Wednesday that Trump’s “determination to seek a solid diplomatic solution is truly commendable.” Nevertheless, she cautioned, “what is crucial for Ukraine is that any peace plan respects our sovereignty and territorial integrity and prevents future Russian attacks, ensuring that Ukraine is not made an easy target for the next round of aggression.”

Indeed, it’s not just Ukrainians who find the proposals alarming. Many European governments see the idea of ceding territory to Russia and placing future limits on Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself as not only rewarding Putin’s aggression, but also emboldening him to strike elsewhere in Europe.

That’s why the reported terms of Trump’s plan create “an extremely dangerous international precedent,” according to Danylo Metelskyi, the director of the Center of Social Transformations, a nongovernmental organization based in Kyiv. “If territories seized by force remain under the control of the aggressor state, it undermines the entire postwar global order.”

Image: POLAND-US-UKRAINE-ROMANIA-NATO-ARMY-DEFENCE
A Polish soldier carries an interception drone at the Nowa Deba military training ground in southeastern Poland on Tuesday.Wojtek Radwanski / AFP via Getty Images

Russia’s position in all of it doesn’t appear to have changed at all: It is still demanding “the elimination of the root causes of this conflict,” as Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday. That is: Ukraine should cede territory, weaken its military and promise never to join NATO.

Russian officials have “to navigate between their maximalist objectives” and not risking Trump’s “supporting Ukraine more than ever,” said longtime Moscow watcher James Nixey, an independent consultant based in England. “So it’s tricky for the Russians, too. They don’t know how far they can push — but they’re sure as hell trying.”

The question now is: Will this “go the way of previous attempts at a peace process? Rejected by Ukraine and Europe,” Nixey added. “Or will the pressure — battlefield pressure, societal pressure, U.S. pressure — be too much for Ukraine and it has to de facto surrender? Because that is what this is.”

Daryna Mayer reported from Kyiv and Alexander Smith and Elmira Aliieva from London.

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