Ukraine is under intense pressure on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, but underwater it appears to be a growing threat to Russia.
New satellite imagery shows damage to a Russian naval base after Kyiv said it had taken out a submarine with an underwater drone, in what it celebrated as a historic first.
Moscow denied any damage from the strike, which could mark a significant new development in Ukraine’s prolific drone program — and its campaign to show it can still inflict serious pain on the Kremlin’s war effort.
Colorado-based firm Vantor, which released the satellite images Tuesday, said they revealed damage to the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast.
Russia moved much of its Black Sea fleet to the port to try and shield it from Ukrainian attacks, which had frequently hit its primary base in Sevastopol, on the annexed Crimean Peninsula.
"A section of a quay in the port has been damaged by the attack and one Kilo-class submarine is positioned nearby. It is unclear if that specific submarine was damaged in the attack; moreover, three additional Kilo submarines are also observed in the port. A series of floating barriers remain positioned at the entrance to the naval base," Vantor said.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Monday released a video of the attack by the Ukrainian-made Sub Sea Baby drone. It shows a calm port with several ships before the camera view pans to the left to show a massive explosion that kicks up water and debris.
“The submarine suffered critical damage and was effectively put out of action,” the release said, adding that the target was a Kilo-class submarine with four Kalibr cruise missile launchers that Russia had used to strike Ukraine.
The attack was a joint operation between the SBU and the Ukrainian navy, the release said.
NBC News was able to verify the location of the video posted online by the SBU and that the attack likely happened either Sunday or Monday, but not the specific target or the extent of the damage.
Alexander Kamyshin, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, posted on X that the attack was the first time that an underwater drone had destroyed a submarine.
Russia denied the attack caused any damage.
“None of the ships or submarines of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base, nor their crews, were damaged as a result of the sabotage and are on duty as normal,” the fleet was quoted as saying by state news agencies.
“The real question is how the system got into position undetected and acquired and tracked its target,” Benjamin Jensen, a senior fellow for the Defense and Security Department at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an email response to questions from NBC News.
Both Ukraine and Russia have extensively — and effectively — used drones in the nearly four-year war, the first conflict in which drones have been employed on such a massive scale.
At the end of November, Ukrainian naval drones attacked two sanctioned tankers in the Black Sea as they headed to a Russian port to load up with oil headed to foreign markets. But it was a complex Ukrainian attack deep inside Russia in June, which damaged or destroyed dozens of Russian planes, that made its drone program stand out.
According to the SBU, it stashed 117 small drones inside sheds on the backs of trucks, unleashing them near the perimeters of four Russian air bases, one of which is some 2,500 miles away from Ukraine’s borders.
Still, analysts say it’s unlikely that Ukraine’s latest drone advances are going to turn the tide of the grinding war, as Russia's own drone network enables attacks on Ukraine, and significant obstacles remain for the two sides to reach a lasting peace agreement.
“The attack will not have a significant impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine, which focuses more on a mix of seizing additional terrain in Eastern Ukraine and using a punishment campaign to target Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure each night with drones and missiles,” Jensen said in an email. “The four missiles that won’t be shot tonight from the Kilo pale in comparison to the hundreds of drones that will be launched at Ukrainian cities.”
