A new round of in-person talks between the United States and Iran could be held as early as this week, two people familiar with the ongoing negotiations told NBC News.
It comes after talks led by Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan over the weekend failed to reach a peace agreement to end the war. Both Vance and President Donald Trump offered hope for future talks Monday, even as U.S. forces launched a blockade barring ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz for a free flow of shipping is a major sticking point in the negotiations for any agreement, one of the people said. Iran’s nuclear capability is another, the second person said.
The U.S. asked Iran during the marathon talks in Islamabad for a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment, the second person said. Iran agreed to three to five years, which Trump has said is not acceptable, the second person said.
The U.S. has also asked Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, but Iran agreed to a “monitored process of down blending" — which is a process by which more dangerous, highly-enriched uranium is mixed with natural or less potent uranium to create a less potent material, according to the second person familiar with the ongoing negotiations.
Trump said in an interview with the New York Post on Tuesday that there could be an update on U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan within days.
“You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump said in the interview, according to the Post.
The White House has a lot riding on the success of the diplomatic talks as polls show American voters souring on the conflict with Iran as inflation grinds on and gas prices rise. The president’s political advisers are looking ahead to the midterm elections in November, when Republicans will be fighting to preserve their razor-thin margin in the House and maintain their advantage in the Senate.
On Tuesday, Israel and Lebanon held direct talks in Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio also participating. The high-level talks, which lasted roughly two hours, were the first between Israel and Lebanon since 1993.
The Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in early March in solidarity with Iran after the U.S. and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic on Feb. 28. And Israel has retaliated with attacks across Lebanon that have killed more than 2,000 people.
"This will take time, but we believe it is worth this endeavor," Rubio told reporters ahead of the meeting. "It’s a historic gathering that we hope to build on, and the hope today is that we can outline the framework upon which a permanent and lasting peace can be developed."
The talks between Israel and Lebanon were not connected to the U.S. negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, a State Department official said.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Vance said there had been some "good conversations" with Tehran during the talks in the Pakistani capital.
Asked whether there might be more negotiations on the horizon, he said the question would be “best put to the Iranians, because the ball really is in their court.”
He added that there was a "grand deal to be had," but it was up to Tehran to "take the next step."
Trump said that the U.S. had been called “by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal.” He said a day earlier that he didn't "care" whether Iran returned to the negotiating table.
"Despite all of the bluster, both sides would like to go down the escalation ladder,” Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the author of “Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy,” said in a phone interview Tuesday. “ I don’t think anybody relishes escalating further.”
“There’s a recognition that despite all the posturing, both on the ground with the blockade and also with some of the war of words, there’s a recognition that the only way really to resolve this is through negotiation,” he said.
Vance said that the key sticking point in the talks centered around Iran's enrichment of uranium.
"We must have the enriched material out of Iran," he said, adding: "We must have their conclusive commitment to not develop a nuclear weapon."
Vance said Tehran had shown some flexibility in talks over the weekend, but “didn’t move far enough.”
With the possibility of fresh talks on the horizon, Vance said, “if the Iranians are willing to meet us there, then this can be a very, very good deal for both countries. If they’re not willing to meet us there, that’s up to them.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, has estimated that Iran has nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for 11 nuclear weapons.
Tehran has maintained that its highly enriched uranium is still buried underground after U.S. airstrikes targeting enrichment facilities last year. It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention of seeking a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s armed forces accused the U.S. of “piracy” with the blockade and threatened ports across the Gulf if its own were hit.
But despite the risks of an intensifying standoff over Hormuz, the two-week ceasefire in the conflict seemed to be holding.
Israel and Lebanon, meanwhile, were holding rare direct talks in Washington on Tuesday in an effort to defuse another flashpoint that threatened the deal.
Israel has invaded southern Lebanon and attacked its neighbor from the air, including an intense day of deadly strikes on Beirut last week.
The Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, which launched attacks on Israel last month in solidarity with Tehran, urged the Lebanese government to abandon the talks.
The U.S. and Israel have insisted Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have said it is. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the talks in Washington on Tuesday.
