Israel has again shown its unrivaled ability to assassinate high-level enemies, announcing the killing Tuesday of the man widely seen as running Iran.
Ali Larijani's death, which was confirmed by Iranian authorities, deals a significant psychological and logistical blow to the Islamic Republic, already reeling from the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose successor son has yet to appear in public. But, analysts told NBC News, it may also cause the regime to harden rather than weaken as its opponents may hope.
Ultimately, the apparent killing of Larijani, along with that of Basij militia chief Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, may be little comfort to the rest of the world in the short term as it faces an oil crisis and a global economic shock in the wake of this war waged alongside the United States.
Nevertheless, Israel says it won’t stop at Larijani, Soleimani, Khamenei and other senior officials before them.
Announcing the dual killings after overnight strikes, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said his military would “continue pursuing” Iran's leaders and “repeatedly cut off the head of the octopus and prevent it from regrowing.”
Larijani is “a big scalp,” said Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank based in London. “It’s impressive what Israel is able to do. They promised they’d hit the regime, and they’re doing it very successfully.”
But from a global perspective, “you have to ask: So what?” he added.
Tuesday's dramatic developments lay bare the tension between Israel’s apparent war goals and what the rest of the world might want to happen.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he is pursuing his decades-long aim of toppling the Iranian theocracy, declaring that his country was weakening the regime to give people a chance to oust it.
But Israel and the U.S. are not just hitting Iran's leadership and military, they are bombarding Tehran and other cities.
At least 1,200 Iranians have been killed, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said on March 3. Many more are likely to have died since then. And dozens more have died in Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the Gulf states and Israel.
Iran has now taken the conflict to another level by effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz. With ships unable to cross this vital choke point for oil and other key goods, fearing attack by Iranian missiles and drones, global prices have soared.
“Iran has successfully moved this conflict onto the global level,” Stephens said. “All Iran has to do now is survive, and keep upping the cost.” Ultimately, Israel “can kill as many Iranian officials as it likes, but it won’t change the quagmire we’re now in,” he added.
Though plenty of experts warned that Iran could and would likely close the strait if attacked, this crisis seems to have come as a surprise to those prosecuting the war.
President Donald Trump had tried to cajole allies into sending ships to help reopen the strait, something most of them declined to do. In an angry post on Truth Social and later speaking to reporters in the White House, Trump said the U.S. did not need NATO “but they should have been there.”
Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct lecturer at Sweden’s Lund University, agreed that the assassinations “will most likely not affect the operational side of the war.”
But the targeted killings will likely hamper the effectiveness of Iran's internal operations, according to Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst.
"They can scramble command, slow decision-making, force successors into hiding, and demoralize both leadership and foot soldiers alike," he said.
He described Larijani as "an important piece of that puzzle, as someone who acted as a coordinator between different actors within the Islamic Republic." His death "could increase internal tensions in the short term, even if it ends up reinforcing the IRGC in the longer term."
That point is key, and one that has been made throughout this conflict since the killing of Khamenei. Many Western observers fear that, by taking out Iran's current leaders, it will only create a vacuum to be filled by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country's feared paramilitary, political and economic behemoth.
"If you look at how the assassination of Ali Khamenei empowered the most hard-line and security elements within the Islamic Republic of Iran, then Larijani’s death could act as an accelerator to that path," said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
One of the many hats worn by the pragmatist Larijani was his role as a leading negotiator tasked with finding common ground with Washington.
"Israel seems to be turning its attention to targeting those that could push for a political solution to overcome Iran’s troubles at home and abroad," Geranmayeh said.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment on this allegation.
Israel's war was launched from a place of international fragility after its deadly assault on the Gaza Strip.
A new NBC News poll showed more registered American voters view Israel negatively than positively, a change from a few years ago. And Iran's retaliatory attacks on surrounding Arab Gulf states may not win Tehran any new regional friends, but could also further harden dismay at Israel's actions.
It also remains to be seen what internal strife and machinations are triggered by the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
Israel has deployed its assassination strategy with dramatic but mixed results in Lebanon and Gaza, killing Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar, the leaders of Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas.
"Losing Nasrallah was a major blow to the group’s ability to maneuver a far more complicated landscape in Lebanon in the long term," Horowitz said.
But, he said, "the group is still fighting."
