The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could trigger a new food price shock pushing tens of millions into acute hunger if it drags on, officials across the world are warning.
Rising energy, shipping and fertilizer costs fueled by Tehran's stranglehold on the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade route are already being felt in the United States, but the sharpest consequences are expected to fall on poorer, import-dependent countries unable to absorb the higher costs.
Thousands of miles from the Middle East, in Brazil, South Asia and East Africa, even small increases in the price of growing and transporting food can deepen hunger and strain already fragile food systems, where millions are already struggling to afford basic staples.
The war has already sent oil markets into turmoil, but as farmers around the world prepare for the next planting season, that concern is shifting to a less visible but equally critical resource: fertilizer.
Liquefied natural gas, of which Qatar is the world's second-largest exporter, is an essential ingredient in producing nitrogen fertilizers including urea, a widely-used agricultural product that helps plants grow and boosts yields. But shipping delays and uncertainty have led to soaring prices.
Roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer shipped by sea passes through the strait, meaning any sustained disruption risks rippling quickly across food production and prices.
Jacob Jumpha grows peas between rows of maize on his one-hectare farm on the southern banks of Lake Malawi, a nation which receives 61.6% of its fertilizer from the Gulf.
“The war is likely to hit Malawi hard, especially in terms of fertilizer shortages,” he told NBC News via WhatsApp. “Malawi imports a significant amount of fertilizer from the Middle East, and disruptions to manufacturing or shipping could lead to a surge in prices, or even shortages.”
Dangerous timing
The duration of the war will be pivotal to maintaining global food stocks, said Máximo Torero, the chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
A short-term disruption of up to one month could be absorbed, he told a U.N. briefing last week, but if the disruption persists for three months or longer, the risks escalate significantly and impact farmers globally, affecting planting decisions across the globe for this year and beyond.
Ebony Loloji, the director of the National Union for Small Scale Farmers of Zambia, said that most of the country’s fertilizer came from the Middle East.
“Definitely there is the potential for supply chain disruption,” he told NBC News. “Once prices start rising, it means that affordability issues and even issues of access to fertilizer will start arriving."
In Brazil, Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro warned that the war had already triggered price increases in urea and could disrupt supplies to one of the world’s most import-dependent farming giants.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government has taken measures to ensure fertilizer supplies are not affected and to protect farmers from any impact, increasing domestic production and diversifying impact sources.
Britain's National Farmers’ Union has also warned that food prices in the United Kingdom are likely to go up as a result of the war.
Tangible effects are already spreading across the global farming system.
In India, Algeria and Slovakia, fertilizer plants have reduced production or stopped operations because of rising natural gas prices. Australian wheat farmers are planting less and China has restricted fertilizer exports. In the U.S., ammonia prices are currently 41% higher than they were last March, while urea prices have risen 21%.
"The longer this war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the chance there is of reduced agricultural production," said Chris Lawson of CRU Group, a London-based commodities consultancy.
Countries like Australia which need fertilizer for the upcoming crop, he said, "are likely to be most impacted," alongside less developed regions "due to the subsequent high prices and their lower ability to pay."
"Right now, it’s impossible to quantity how significant the loss of agricultural production could be," he added. "But the loss of production as a result of the war will be felt through the remainder of the year, not just immediately."
The World Food Programme has warned that surging fuel and fertilizer costs, combined with shipping disruptions, could have serious consequences for global food security.
An extra 45 million people are projected to be pushed into acute hunger because of rises in food, oil and shipping costs, putting the global tally above its current record level of 319 million, WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told reporters in Geneva last week.
“This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” he said. “Already, before this war, we were in a perfect storm where hunger has never been as severe as now, in terms of numbers and how deep that hunger is,” he added.
The timing is especially dangerous.
Fertilizer shortages are hitting just as planting seasons begin across much of Africa and Asia.
“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season,” Skau said. “In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”
East African nations, which import massive amounts of fertilizer from the Gulf, were especially vulnerable, the Global Sovereign Advisory said.
Approximately 4 million Malawians, 22% of the population, are already experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Aid-reliant, conflict ridden nations like Somalia also stand to suffer. UNICEF says it has $15.7 million worth of lifesaving supplies, including food, vaccines and mosquito nets, being prepared for delivery on some routes.
Transport costs could rise by 30% to 60% and even double on some routes, the U.N. agency said last week.
"It's another problem that we have to try to deal with, and it means that more and more children will suffer," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said last week.
President Donald Trump is talking up negotiations to end the war that he started alongside Israel. That’s even as thousands more American troops head to the Middle East and Iran accused the U.S. of a looming ground operation.
But if the war drags on beyond the next few weeks, ripple effects from what Torero called "one of the most rapid and severe disruptions" in recent times are likely to be felt, both on the ground and under it.
