Pakistan has “credible intelligence” that India intends to launch military strikes in the next “24-36 hours,” the country's information minister said Wednesday as tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors ramp up.
“Any such military adventurism by India would be responded to assuredly and decisively,” Attaullah Tarar said in a post on X without elaborating on what intelligence Pakistan has.
His comments came amid a sharp war of words between the two nations after last week's deadly terrorist attack on tourists in the Indian-administered Kashmir, in which 26 people were killed. All but one were Indian nationals; the one was from Nepal.
A previously unknown militant group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility for the attack, but New Delhi is still pointing the finger at Islamabad, which it has long accused of supporting cross-border terrorism. India has said that two of the three attackers identified were Pakistani nationals.
Pakistan has denied any connection to the attack and has called for a neutral investigation, saying it will defend its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” at all costs.
The April 22 attack took place in the Baisaran Valley in Kashmir, a disputed Himalayan region that is the only Muslim-majority part of India and one of Kashmir’s top tourist destinations, known for its lush green meadows, dense pine forests and snowcapped mountains.
The massacre set off tit-for-tat diplomatic measures between India and Pakistan that included cancellation of visas and a recall of diplomats. New Delhi also suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty with Islamabad and ordered its border shut with Pakistan.
Indian and Pakistani troops have also exchanged gunfire along the Line of Control that divides Kashmir.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has insisted that the security situation in Kashmir was stabilized after a decadeslong separatist insurgency, has vowed retribution. He was expected to convene a security committee meeting on Wednesday, following a meeting with his top military and security officials.
“India has signaled a certain posture vis-a-vis Pakistan to domestic audiences in ways that makes it difficult for them not to carry out a strike in the face of a terrorist attack,” Srinath Raghavan, a professor of international relations and history at Ashoka University in India.
Tensions have ramped up between the nuclear-armed neighbors since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Experts have said that the U.S. presence historically deterred violence between India and Pakistan.
President Donald Trump said the two countries will figure it out "out one way or the other."
“There’s great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been," he told reporters last Friday.
The strategic and policy decisions surrounding Indian military actions have historically been the prerogative of its elected government, Raghavan said.
He added that the military has the “operational attitude to decide what kinds of targets they want to respond to and how they want to carry out these operations.”
“This means that there is no restraint on them,” he said. “Of course, the military will make a presentation to Modi, but after that, they will get a go-ahead.”
