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Which console will rule them all?

Now that Microsoft has finally let the Xbox One see the light of day, all of the next-generation video game consoles are officially on the table. But none of them save Wii U has actually made it to market, and we all know how the first-mover advantage has been helping Nintendo so far. So as the days inevitably wind towards the epic bout of consumerism that will be the 2013 holiday season, gamers the world over are wondering: who will win in the upcoming console war?

Like all things video game related, the answer is: it depends. Will Microsoft finally complete its conquest of the living room now that the Xbox One is so ridiculously TV-friendly? Or will Sony win over the game development community at large with all the talk about how much "Sony loves indies?" What about Nintendo?

For answers, one has to start by looking at the hardware itself.

Tk—tk.

The PlayBox 1080

If you look at the hardware spec rundowns posted on tech enthusiast publications like CNET and IGN, the two consoles look nearly identical. Sure, the PlayStation 4 is rumored to have a slightly higher GPU performance, and the Xbox On erms of hardware peripherals, Microsoft is making a bid for features like voice and motion-control with its revamped Kinect set-up, while Sony and Nintendo both emphasized touchscreen and touchpad controllers for their new consoles. But will the next "Call of Duty" or "Grand Theft Auto" look (or play) all that differently on one device or the other? Probably not. The two consoles will probably cost the same amount and could even be released the exact same week.

Historically, the main differences in gameplay between the two consoles have always come down to their exclusive titles—Sony's "Uncharted" series used the PlayStation 3's tricky hardware to create some of the best looking video games in the history of the medium, for instance, while Microsoft's "Gears of War" let players shoot giant mutants in the kind of collective experience that made the Xbox Live Arcade's (XBLA) multiplayer party developers like Ubisoft, Electronic Arts, and Activision who want each device to be as similar as possible to make their jobs easier. And unless Microsoft or Sony somehow find a way (read: a price) to convince Eric Hirschberg and Bobby Kotick to make the next "Call of Duty" an exclusive title, this overarching pressure within the industry will keep pushing any new Xbox or PlayStation to remain "similar products competing for similar users," to quote Michael Pachter in an interview with NBC News last week.

Ironically enough, Nintendo has something of the opposite situation. As the sole proprietor of gaming's most beloved characters and franchises like "Super Mario Bros.," "The Legend of Zelda," and "Donkey Kong," the company has a more powerful repertoire of exclusive content than Microsoft or Sony could ever dream of obtaining. Problem is, gamers can't find it anywhere but on the Wii U or 3DS — a lack of easily accessible content outside of the firmly entrenched Nintendo ecosystem that risks alienating casual users and any younger fans that don't know why they should even care about a new "Pokémon" game.

The play's the thing

That being said, Nintendo has always been the oddball of the "big three" console developers for better or worse. The Japanese gaming giant chose to bow out of the graphics arms race with the original Wii, and the decision paid off the tune of 90 million-plus units being shipped. Microsoft and Sony, meanwhile, have continued to make the same kinds of devices for the same kinds of gamers.

The question of which of their respective gadgets will "win" the next front of the console war, then, comes down to three factors. First, there's the question of online community. You don't want to switch over to using Tumblr full-time if all of your friends are still on Facebook, and it's no different for XBLA and the PlayStation Network. Many gamers will stick with their chosen console simply because they still want to play "Call of Duty" with the same group of people.

Second are all of the related apps and services that will come bundled with each console. Microsoft obviously made a big push towards branding the Xbox as an "all-in-one" device for the whole family, and the company has something of an advantage in this regard given its investments in everything from Windows 8 and Skype to top-tier Hollywood talent like Steven Spielberg. But Sony still has any number of smartphones and tablets of its own — not to mention the impressive but underselling PlayStation Vita mobile gaming console — that it promises to integrate within its entire ambitious gaming ecosystem.

And, lastly, of course, there are the games. Microsoft promised during yesterday's announcement that it will hone in on a batch of exclusive offerings for the Xbox One, with 15 titles coming out for the device in its first year alone. Sony, meanwhile, is taking something of a shotgun approach: attracting hordes of indie developers in the hopes of snatching up the next "Minecraft"-level hit. It's far too early to say which of these approaches will do more for the better. But if gamers have their say, the play will still be the thing.

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