The Kansas City Chiefs’ hold over half the NFL appeared broken when the season opened in September — and no team was better positioned to take advantage than Buffalo.
Since 2020, the Bills, along with another Kansas City challenger, the Baltimore Ravens, perennially found themselves under Kansas City’s thumb. They were a combined 0-5 in the postseason against the Chiefs as that team went on to win five of the last six AFC championships.
The Chiefs stumbled to 0-2, however, and Baltimore swooned to a 1-5 start. Buffalo, meanwhile, started 4-0, with quarterback Josh Allen picking up right where his MVP season left off last year.
Yet as the season hits its midway point, Buffalo’s window to claim the AFC and advance to its first Super Bowl in 32 seasons no longer appears as wide open as it did a month ago. Because as soon as the Bills’ fortunes changed, so did those of its rivals.
On Oct. 5, their 14-game home winning streak was snapped even though they were more than a touchdown favorite to beat New England. Eight days later, still as a betting favorite, Buffalo lost again, 24-14, at Atlanta — only its second loss by double digits in a year. And its 4-0 start began to look less impressive after its first four opponents started a combined 3-21.
Following a bye, Buffalo routed Carolina last week, scoring 40 points for the second time this season. Yet if the Bills felt they were back on track, the worrisome news was that several other rivals were as well.
Buffalo doesn’t even lead its own division. That lead belongs to New England (6-2), which has become one of the NFL’s most surprising teams in coach Mike Vrabel’s first season. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye, only 23, has joined Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks ever to pass for 200-plus yards with a passer rating of 100 or better in seven consecutive games. It’s partly why the Patriots are a league-best 4-0 on the road and have won five straight games.
In the AFC South, a team few expected to make noise as a playoff contender, Indianapolis, is off to its best start since 2009. The Colts own the league’s best record (7-1) and point differential (outscoring opponents by 116 points) behind a pair of MVP candidates in quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor, whose production this season has invited comparisons to Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson.
Though just 3-5, Baltimore still has a chance to come back from the dead. With quarterback Lamar Jackson scoring four touchdowns Thursday in his return after missing three games to an injured hamstring, and the bulk of their division games still yet to be played, the Ravens could very well win the AFC North and earn a playoff berth. And their remaining schedule is rated the league’s fourth-easiest, according to their opponents’ combined winning percentage (and New England owns the easiest).
And then there is Kansas City, the longtime Buffalo nemesis that the Bills host Sunday in the most anticipated game of Week 9. At 5-3, the Chiefs currently stand only third in the AFC West, but bettors have given them the best odds to win the Super Bowl after they have looked like their old selves while winning five of their last six games, including three in a row by at least 13 points. Since throwing three touchdown passes in his first three games during a 1-2 start, Patrick Mahomes has 14 touchdown passes in five games since.
History suggests that even if Buffalo wins, there is no guarantee it will be able to replicate that success in the postseason. Since 2020, the Bills are 4-1 against Kansas City in the regular season but 0-4 in the playoffs.
Ahead of the critical matchup, a collection of officials from Buffalo’s Catholic diocese happened to visit Pope Leo XIV this week, and presented the American pope a Bills jersey. The Bills still have a game-breaking quarterback in Allen, and one of the league’s best backs in James Cook. But during a season where the AFC landscape has shifted under their feet, a prayer couldn’t exactly hurt.
What else we're watching in Week 9
Bears (4-3) at Bengals (3-5): Chicago’s defense has forced 16 takeaways and 11 interceptions, both top in the league.
Vikings (3-4) at Lions (5-2): Detroit has won five straight games against Minnesota. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is preparing to make his third career start after returning from an ankle injury and because the backup who had taken over for him, Carson Wentz, is out for the year.
Panthers (4-4) at Packers (5-1-1): Carolina can match its win total from all of last season with a victory.
Chargers (5-3) at Titans (1-7): No quarterback has been hit (70) or pressured (141) more often than the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, but no quarterback has been sacked (34) more than the Titans’ Cam Ward.
Falcons (3-4) at Patriots (6-2): Atlanta star Bijan Robinson is coming off a season-low 12 touches and 48 yards from scrimmage last week.
49ers (5-3) at Giants (2-6): San Francisco’s 20.0 points-per-game average is the lowest of any team with a winning record.
Colts (7-1) at Steelers (4-3): Mismatch alert? Pittsburgh’s 30th-ranked defense faces the NFL’s No. 1 offense. If the Colts win, it would be only their third of the season against an opponent with a winning record.
Broncos (6-2) at Texans (3-4): Both defenses rank in the NFL's top five in both yards and points allowed. Houston has rebounded from an 0-3 start to win three of its last four games.
Jaguars (4-3) at Raiders (2-5): The Raiders have lost five of their last six, while the Jaguars have lost two straight. Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith (10 interceptions) will have a familar receiver to throw to in former Seahawks teammate Tyler Lockett, who was signed this week.
Saints (1-7) at Rams (5-2): Quarterback Tyler Shough makes his first NFL start for New Orleans. Shough, 26, was still a toddler when New Orleans last started a season this poorly, in 1999.
Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (5-2): Buffalo won’t have key defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who was placed on injured reserve this week after a bicep injury.
Seahawks (5-2) at Commanders (3-5): On “Sunday Night Football,” Washington tries to end its three-game losing streak by stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is on pace for an NFL-record 1,989 receiving yards.
Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4-1): Is Dak Prescott a dark-horse MVP candidate? The Cowboys are second in the NFL by averaging 30.8 points and 384.1 yards.
