The ‘margin’ stat that was the biggest key to the Indiana Pacers' saving their season

INDIANAPOLIS — This late in a playoff series, as Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam put it Thursday night, there are no "secrets" left between opponents.

There are very few — if any — surprise adjustments left on the board. The coaches know each other’s plays. The players know one another’s tendencies.

Said Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton: “All these games are coming down to the margins.”

And there was one margin in particular that propelled Indiana to a stunning, 108-91 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night, the one that coach Rick Carlisle said cost it Game 5: turnovers.

“We played better,” Carlisle said when he was asked about the giveaways after Game 6. “We were where we should be most of the time. Well, a lot more than we were in Game 5. And we were stronger with the ball, and we had some that weren’t great ones. But when we made a mistake, we bounced back well, and that’s what you’ve got to do this time of year.”

Forward Obi Toppin said: “We watched film, and it tells us what we do. They don’t put too many good clips up on the film. We knew we had to be better today.”

Thursday was a complete turnaround for the Pacers when it came to turnovers.

In Game 5, the team coughed up the ball a whopping 22 times in an 11-point loss, including seven in the first quarter and eight in a tightly contested fourth. And they came in a variety of forms, from making bad passes to aimlessly dribbling into traffic to picking up the ball too far from the hoop.

In Game 6, Indiana had zero turnovers in the first quarter, only two by halftime and seven by the end of third — building a 30-point lead before backups played the majority of the fourth quarter.

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had more turnovers by himself (eight) than the entire Pacers roster after three quarters.

“We were at least a little bit stronger with the ball,” Siakam said about the difference between the last two games. “Obviously, we are not a team that really turns the ball over, but when you play against a defense like they do, that really disrupts you.

“Just the key is two hands on the ball, like the most basic stuff. You know, just make the pass, the easy pass usually, not try to complicate it, and I think that’s the most important.”

After a miraculous comeback in Game 1, in which Indiana turned the ball over 25 times but still managed to steal the game at the end, holding on to the ball has been a key indicator for the Pacers’ success.

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In their last two wins in the finals, Indiana has averaged only 12.5 turnovers. In its three losses? 18.

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Oklahoma City, meanwhile, has forced 3.1 more turnovers per game in its playoff wins compared with its playoff losses.

The extra possessions for Indiana especially paid off early.

In the first 12 minutes of the game, the Pacers shot only 8-of-25 from the field, a ghastly 32%. And yet, they still led by three after the first, in large part because Indiana had the ball more than the Thunder, who had five turnovers in the opening period.

Whereas the Pacers had their lowest giveaway total of the championship round in Game 6, OKC had its highest turnover game of the playoffs, with 23 blunders leading to 32 Indiana points.

Against an incredibly stingy defense and with Haliburton limited by a calf strain, the Pacers desperately need any and all easy scores.

And now, as the series shifts to Game 7, Haliburton said it is the margins that will ultimately decide the winner and crown a champion for the 2024-25 season.

“Can you win the rebound battle, can you win the turnover battle, can you set the tone from a physicality standpoint?” he said. “Those are all what’s been very important through all these games and I feel like whoever has done that has won, game.

“So going into Game 7, it’s just important for us to control the controllables, the effort stuff. That’s going to be really important.”