There’s nothing more exciting in Formula 1 than a championship-deciding final race. Think of it as a Game 7 of the NBA Finals that hinges on the final moment of the fourth quarter or a Super Bowl that comes down to the last possession.
And in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on Sunday (8 a.m. ET on ESPN), three drivers stand a chance of ending it as the 2025 world champion.
Lando Norris of McLaren leads the standings with 408 points, ahead of Max Verstappen of Red Bull with 396 points and Oscar Piastri of McLaren with 392 points.
For Norris and Piastri, it would be their first ever championship. For Verstappen, it would be his fifth in a row, tying a Formula 1 record set by Michael Schumacher and matched by nobody.
Just 16 points separate the three contenders. Drivers earn 25 points for a race win, 18 points for second place, 15 points for third place, 12 points for fourth and 10 points for fifth; the points continue to diminish through 10th place.
There are layers of intrigue because lots can happen mid-race to upend the order and transform the championship picture — a crash, a car failure, a strategy blunder, an ill-timed safety car, unpredictable weather or an old-fashioned driver error.
How Lando Norris can win
Norris enters the showdown as the mathematical favorite, and his path is the most straightforward: He just needs to finish third or better and he’ll capture the trophy no matter what else happens.
If Verstappen wins the race, a third place for Norris would mean he’d gain 15 points and beat Verstappen by 2 points.
If Piastri wins, Norris would need to finish at least fifth to be champion.
And if neither of his two rivals win, Norris can claim the title with an even lower finish.
In other words, Norris is the only one of the three contenders with the luxury of focusing on himself and not worrying about where his rivals finish. All he needs is a podium position and that Champagne will taste extra sweet.
“As much as there’s been pressure the last few weeks, I’ve still felt comfortable, and I still feel good in the car,” Norris told reporters Thursday in Abu Dhabi. “It’s just a race for a championship. But in 30 years’ time, I probably won’t think of it that much either way. So I’m not too bothered. I’ll do the best I can. If it happens, great. If it doesn’t, then I’ll try again next year.”
How Max Verstappen can win
Verstappen’s best path to glory is to win the race and hope Norris finishes off the podium.
If Verstappen wins and Norris finishes fourth, they will be tied on points — but Verstappen would win “on count back,” as he’d have more race victories this season, the tiebreaker. And any lower finishing position for Norris would mean Verstappen, the reigning champion, would win the title outright on points.
If Verstappen finishes second, he’d need Norris to finish eighth or worse to beat him.
Verstappen needs to finish at least third to have any shot at retaining the title. If he finishes fourth and Norris scores nothing, they would be tied on points and victories, but Norris would win the trophy because he’d have more second-place finishes.
“I’m very relaxed. Nothing to lose, you know? So I’m just enjoying being here,” Verstappen said. “We will just try to have a good weekend. But then even then, it’s not really in my control.”
Verstappen quipped to reporters that he already has four championship trophies at home and it’d be “nice to add a fifth” — but he said he isn’t worried about it.
“I’ve already achieved everything that I wanted to achieve in F1, and everything is just a bonus. And I just keep doing it because I love it and I enjoy it.”
How Oscar Piastri can win
Piastri, who led the standings for most of the season, enters the final race as a heavy underdog and needs the most luck to capture the title. At minimum, he needs to finish at least second overall and beat both Norris and Verstappen at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Piastri’s likeliest path to a first F1 title is to win Sunday’s race and hope Norris finishes sixth or worse. In that scenario, Piastri would be champion no matter where Verstappen finished.
If Piastri finishes second, he’d need Verstappen to finish fourth or lower and for Norris to finish 10th or worse to beat both on points. If Piastri is third or below, he’s out.
He can’t be counted out yet, but the trophy isn’t guaranteed even if he has a perfect weekend.
Piastri said he’s feeling “relaxed” ahead of the final race.
“Obviously, I need a fair few things to happen this weekend to come out champion, but I’ll just make sure I’m in the right place at the right time and see what happens,” he said.
Title deciders tend to produce chaos
In most of F1's title deciders over the last two decades, the champion remained unknown until the checkered flag was waved to usher in the end of the season.
In 2021, an epic battle between the reigning champion, Lewis Hamilton, and a hungry young Verstappen left them dead even on points entering the finale. Hamilton led most of the race and was cruising to a record eighth championship, but an ill-timed safety car and a contentious officiating decision put the two neck and neck for a final-lap shoot-out, in which Verstappen overtook Hamilton and secured his first trophy.
2016 produced another thriller when Hamilton sought to back Nico Rosberg into traffic in a daring bid to push his fellow Mercedes driver off the podium and secure his fourth title. The gambit failed, but Rosberg was so drained from his championship win that he immediately retired from Formula 1.
The 2012 title decider — fought between Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso — was one of the most chaotic in F1 history. A first-lap collision for Vettel put him dead last with a damaged car, and heavy rain and persistent crashes created even more unpredictability. Vettel valiantly fought his way back to win on points and secure the championship.
The 2010 finale was highly unusual in that four drivers entered the race with mathematical chances of winning the championship. Even more dramatically, it was Vettel, third in the standings and 15 points off the lead when the race began, who won while his rivals languished amid strategy errors, capturing his first of four consecutive championships.
And in 2007, the two squabbling McLarens of Hamilton and Alonso entered the last race first and second in the standings, but it was third-place Kimi Räikkönen who won the season finale and snatched the trophy from both of them by just 1 point. Hamilton made amends the following year, in 2008, after a last-lap overtake in the season finale powered him to the championship by 1 point.
