Few college football programs have won more consistently than Ohio State under Ryan Day or Penn State under James Franklin.
And yet when the third-ranked Nittany Lions (7-0) and the fourth-ranked Buckeyes (6-1) meet Saturday, a single question looms over both coaches.
Can either win when it matters most?
Franklin has won nearly 71% of his games in 11 seasons at Penn State but is 1-10 against Ohio State — meaning nearly a quarter of his 39 all-time losses at the school have come against the Buckeyes. Saturday’s matchup is one of his best opportunities to end a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry. In the process, a win would move Penn State closer to securing what would be the first appearance in the College Football Playoff in Franklin’s decade in charge.
As the playoff field has increased from four teams to 12, the margin for error has expanded for teams. The Nittany Lions can effectively suffer a loss and keep their playoff hopes alive. But a loss to Ohio State would also keep alive the Buckeyes’ dominance in the series and the skepticism that Franklin can beat teams of Ohio State’s caliber in the postseason.
Though the Nittany Lions are unbeaten behind the country’s eighth-best scoring defense and quarterback Drew Allar, who owns the country’s eighth-best passer rating, Allar injured a knee in the Oct. 26 win against Wisconsin, and his availability to play will be determined at game time, Franklin told reporters this week. Allar’s backup, Beau Pribula, completed 11 of his 13 passes after he stepped in for Allar. Ohio State has made three playoff appearances and won 87% of its games under Day since 2018, but the Buckeyes measure success by national championships, and in that category, Day has yet to win one, unlike predecessors Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel. Their case for another playoff appearance this season could hinge on Saturday’s result.
Since they started 5-0, the Buckeyes lost in the final seconds at Oregon on Oct. 12 and, after a bye, barely scraped by last week an unranked Nebraska team that was coming off a 49-point loss. Would the playoff selection committee select a two-loss Ohio State team? It’s a debate that would be opened should it lose to Penn State for the first time since 2016.
The winner Saturday can credibly say its national title goals entering the season remain achievable. But the loser will face continued scrutiny over its ability to win the big one.
