The women’s Final Four tips off tomorrow night in Phoenix. Four top seeds battling for supremacy, the same four teams from last year. Can South Carolina topple UConn? Can UCLA avenge its early-season loss to Texas? We break down the matchups below.
Also, our NBC News team will be live-blogging the Final Four games all weekend. Come hang out with us for real-time analysis and check out the website for more coverage.
UConn vs. South Carolina
The first game is a rematch of last year’s national championship tilt, which the Huskies won by 23 points. Can coach Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks do the unthinkable and end UConn’s undefeated season and bid for back-to-back titles?
Key player/matchup: While Azzi Fudd is perhaps the biggest star on UConn, sophomore forward Sarah Strong is the team leader in points (18.6) and rebounds (7.6) per game. Strong scored 24 and collected 15 rebounds in the Huskies’ win over the Gamecocks in last year’s Final Four.
Key stat: How about two key stats, as this game could come down to which team can create extra possessions. South Carolina is the significantly better offensive rebounding team, posting a 39.8% offensive rebound rate, 13th-best in the country, whereas the Huskies rank 74th. Meanwhile, UConn led the nation in steals per game with 15.7. These teams are hilariously even-matched on offense, with both ranking in the top four in points per game, field-goal percentage, and 3-point field-goal percentage. Whichever team can give its offense more shots on goal — especially considering the efficiency each offense plays with — will likely have a massive advantage.
Prediction: It’s going to be hard to pick against the Huskies. While both teams have great offenses, UConn also dominated defensively this season, leading college basketball in points allowed and opponent field-goal percentage. The Gamecocks will have to wait for revenge. Huskies win, 88-70.
UCLA vs. Texas
The nightcap features two heavyweight teams that already played each other earlier this season. Both sides have transcendent stars: UCLA’s Lauren Betts, Texas’ Madison Booker. Who has the edge?
Key player/matchup: The way UCLA operates, Betts is the center of the Bruins’ universe, surrounded by four dynamic guards. Betts stands 6-foot-7 and is a force in the paint, and few college basketball teams can match her size. But Texas might be able to. The Longhorns start 6-foot-4 forward Breya Cunningham and bring 6-foot-6 center Kyla Oldacre off the bench. When these two teams played earlier this season, Betts had an uncharacteristically bad game — 8 points and 7 rebounds in 37 minutes.
Key stat: When the Longhorns and Bruins played back in November, Texas led by 20 points at halftime and cruised to an 11-point win. In that game, Texas’ veterans came to play. Senior guard Rori Harmon scored 26 points and Booker, a junior, had 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists.
UCLA typically shoots about 37% from 3-point range, which is top-10 in the country. In that game, Texas held the Bruins to shooting 4 of 13 (31%) from deep.
Prediction: Of the Final Four teams, UCLA is the only one that didn’t dominate its Elite Eight matchup. UCLA actually trailed Duke by eight points at halftime. Maybe that’s a sign the Bruins are vulnerable. Texas beat Michigan, its Elite Eight opponent, by 36 points. The Longhorns won the first matchup between these two teams, and they’ll take the sequel, too. Texas 70, UCLA 65.
What We're Reading
A few weeks ago, the Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo scored 83 points in a single NBA game. But he spoke with NBC News about his real superpower.
Great analysis on why being the NCAA Tournament’s most outstanding player used to be a ticket to NBA stardom, but now the winners struggle even to make the pros.
The NBA is planning to start a European basketball league by 2027. Investors think it’s worth billions.
Kirk Cousins is signing with the Raiders as a potential mentor to future No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza.
Speaking of Mendoza, he impressed scouts and others in attendance at the Indiana pro day.
Rams WR Puka Nacua is in rehab and was there before he was sued by a woman in connection with an alleged assault, his lawyer says.
Memphis Grizzlies’ Brandon Clarke was arrested on drug and speeding charges.
Kansas head coach Bill Self will return for his 24th season with the Jayhawks.
Sabrina Ionescu joins Liberty teammate Breanna Stewart in announcing plans to stay with the team.
Rapper J. Cole will play basketball in China.
New Steelers coach Mike McCarthy is ‘confident’ that Aaron Rodgers will play another season.
Michigan St. legend Tom Izzo says he ‘talked seriously’ with Phoenix about their coaching job.
What We're Watching
Before both Final Fours start this weekend, here’s an appetizer: two NBA games featuring playoff teams.
Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves play the Detroit Pistons, who have been putting up a fight without injured star Cade Cunningham; and the star-studded Los Angeles Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, in a potential Western Conference playoff preview and a battle between MVP candidates Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić.
All times are Eastern:
- 7 p.m.: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons, on Amazon Prime
- 9:30 p.m.: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, on Amazon Prime
That’s it for now! We’ll be back tomorrow.
