Plan B for science debate

Those organizers have been working for months to line up the presidential candidates for an event focusing on the issues related to science and technology - issues that range from climate change and energy policy to stem cells, space spending and the role of government in fostering innovation.

"The voters have a right, and the candidates have a moral obligation, for this debate to occur, so that voters may assess the candidates on their positions on the most critical issues facing our nation and planet, the majority of which revolve around science," Shawn Lawrence Otto, a Minnesota screenwriter who is Science Debate Inc.'s chief executive officer, said in an e-mail.

"I have a 12-year-old son," Otto told me. "He is watching this race closely, too. He can't vote, but I am doing this for him. We are a nation that used to gather its children in school auditoriums to watch a moonshot and that prided itself on being the world leader in science. The candidates' reluctance to debate these issues more fully - what may be the most important issues they will have to face - is the very reason why this effort is so necessary."

The organizers went so far as to reserve Philadelphia's Franklin Institute on April 18, just four days before the crucial Pennsylvania primary, just in case they could get the leading candidates on board. The institute saw the political event as the perfect capper for a week set aside to celebrate science's best and brightest.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's campaign has been noncommittal, while Barack Obama's campaign took a pass, Otto said. The problem is that there's already a debate planned for Philadelphia two days earlier - and yet another debate is being talked about for North Carolina later in the month. That doesn't leave a lot of logistical room for an event focusing on science on April 18.

"The Franklin Institute is continuing to work to make the event happen and remains hopeful they can get a commitment from Clinton, at which point Obama would have to at least re-evaluate," Otto said.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, presumptive nominee John McCain's campaign has not responded to the Science Debate invitation, Otto said.

If the candidates pass up the Pennsylvania opening, Science Debate 2008 will shift its focus to Oregon, Otto said. Portland State University is being lined up as the proposed venue. Otto said the media partners in the effort would be "Nova," the venerable public-TV science program; and "Now," a more recent public-affairs series on PBS. A panel of scientists and engineers would be asking the questions, with "Now" host David Brancaccio serving as moderator, Otto said.

He said the "Nova"/"Now" pairing would be "a really good marriage between science and public policy."

Mail-in ballots for Oregon's primary are due to go out at the beginning of May, and are supposed to be sent in by primary day on May 20. Otto said organizers were proposing debate dates in early May - just as the voters are giving a close look to those ballots, and just as the Democratic candidates enter the home stretch of the primary campaign.

"The ball is in their court," Otto said.

If the candidates pass up the Franklin Institute event, as now appears likely, the Science Debate deliberations may have to go into wait-and-see mode until the Pennsylvania primary sorts things out (or not). In any case, there's still hope that voters will get their chance to hear what the candidates say about how they would address America's future as well as its present troubles.

Does science have anything to say about the futures of the candidates themselves? That question has been on a lot of minds this week - and to judge by the Iowa Electronic Markets' trading in political futures, things could get more interesting in the weeks ahead. Obama has a widening lead in the handicapping for the Democratic nomination, but the GOP is closing the gap in the expectation game for the November election.

"The numbers have been moving closer together as the nomination process in the Democratic Party becomes more protracted and nominees Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama trade increasingly sharper barbs," the University of Iowa said in a news release this week.

To keep on top of the market, check the stats at the IEM. But to understand the reasons behind the ups and downs, dig into msnbc.com's political coverage.