As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to fill the atmosphere, the climate is expected to change. Except, it appears, one key component of the climate — wind patterns — won't all that much, at least for the next 50 years in North America where it matters most for wind energy production.
The finding, based on the output of several regional climate models, could ease concerns about where to erect new turbines and string power lines needed to wring energy from the wind and ship it to the people.
Wind energy currently accounts for about 2 percent of U.S. energy production; though the Department of Energy and wind industry backers say it could generate 20 percent by 2030. To get there will require a build out of infrastructure, a costly investment that requires consistent winds to recoup.
Wind resource stability
The study, published online Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is among the first to take a detailed look at the long-term stability of the wind as an energy resource.
"At least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability," Indiana University atmospheric scientists Sara Pryor and Rebecca Barthelmie, write in the journal.
"Thus this work suggests that the wind industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades."
The areas with continuing high wind density include the northern Great Lakes, eastern New Mexico, southwestern Ohio, western Texas, and several states in northern Mexico, regions which are already sprouting turbines.
The finding is based on climate models, which "are evolving and improving all the time," Pryor noted in a press release about the findings. "So we intend to continue this assessment as new models become available."
Clearing the air
The research could clear out some of the confusion over the links between climate change and variability of the wind. In 2009, for example, Pryor published research showing that wind might be dying down across the U.S., though perhaps not where most wind energy is produced.
A study released this March showed that the world is getting breezier. Understanding whether the planet is getting windier as the climate changes is important not just for generating electricity, but also the frequency and intensity of storms.
Of course, assurances that wind will keep blowing where turbines are erected to harness it is just one of the hurdles wind energy developers face. Even with a steady fuel source for decades to come, opposition to turbines for everything from aesthetics and noise to their impact on wildlife is likely to continue.
More stories on wind energy
- Whopper of a wind farm opens off Britain
- Google invests $100 million in wind energy
- Mexico looks beyond oil and toward the wind
- Wind turbines may threaten whooping cranes
- Wind farm debate splits property owners
- Flap over wind farm in land of windmills
- Pickens plan no longer features wind energy
- Debate swirls as wind power grows rapidly
John Roach is a contributing writer for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook page or following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).
