Treasury secretary says there won't be a recession in 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said “no” when asked whether the U.S. was at risk of entering a recession in 2026, telling NBC News’ “Meet the Press” he’s confident Americans will feel economic relief next year stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda and trade deals.

“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy,” Bessent told moderator Kristen Welker.

He also said, “We believe health care is going to come down,” adding that the Trump administration would have news on that front this week.

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Bessent says inflation ‘has nothing to do with tariffs’ as U.S. rolls them back: Full interview

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The treasury secretary acknowledged that there is some pressure on the economy in certain sectors like housing, responding to comments from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett earlier this month that “we’re starting to see pockets of the economy that look like they might be in a recession.”

“Clearly, housing has been struggling, and interest rate-sensitive sectors have been in a recession,” Bessent said Sunday. He added that the recent government shutdown, which was the longest in history, also squeezed the economy.

An NBC News poll earlier this month found that about two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living.

Still, the treasury secretary pointed to the GOP’s landmark domestic policy package that Trump signed into law over the summer — the president’s “big, beautiful bill” — and to the Trump’s tariff and trade agenda as signs that 2026 will yield a stronger economy for Americans.

“I am very confident about 2026, because what we are going to see is the president has done peace deals, tax deals and trade deals [and] the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill,’” Bessent said, adding that the various components of that legislation are “all kicking in.”

In a separate interview on Fox, Hassett also predicted that "it’s going to be an absolute blockbuster year ahead."

"The good news for the next year is that the factories are going to be in place, and then people are going to start getting the jobs next to the machines and everything else. And so it really, really is a very, very promising set of data," he added.

Also Sunday, the treasury secretary published an opinion piece in The Washington Post calling for an end to the Senate filibuster.

“It’s time for Republicans to acknowledge that the filibuster no longer serves the country — and to be prepared to end it,” he wrote in the piece, later telling Welker that it was meant “to put the Senate on notice.”

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“The Democrats haven’t been able to stop President Trump in the courts. They haven’t been able to stop him in the media, so they had to harm the American people — 1.5% hit to GDP,” Bessent said, referencing the recent shutdown. “They don’t care. So I believe that Senate Democrats — if Senate Democrats close the government again, that Senate Republicans should immediately abrogate the filibuster.”

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Bessent also blasted several Democratic lawmakers who are former military and intelligence officers after they released a video telling current military and intelligence officers that they “must refuse” any illegal orders given by the Trump administration.

“What I am confident of is that this was a display of gross, gross negligence,” he said, not answering a question about whether the Trump administration is issuing illegal orders.

He added, “There is one commander in chief, and when you step outside of the chain of command and try to create the noise and chaos, that only helps our enemies.”

He also spoke about the ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, voicing support for a 28-point peace deal backed by the U.S. that has drawn concern from Ukrainians, European leaders and a bipartisan group of senators who say the peace proposal favors Russia.

“At the end of the day, it’s going to be a decision with the Ukrainians. President Trump is a president of peace,” Bessent said before blasting European leaders who are planning more sanctions on Russia.

“The Europeans tell me, ‘Oh, we are doing our 19th sanctions package.’ In my mind ... if you’re going to do something 19 times, you failed,” the treasury secretary said, instead praising Trump’s economic sanctions package on India, which targeted Russian oil.

He added that he has not spoken to the president about an alleged timeline for negotiating this peace proposal, including whether Trump is pushing for the deal to be signed by Thanksgiving.