This is the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Welcome to another election night: Steve Kornacki previews the contest in the district last represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene. Plus, Allan Smith dives into the AI numbers from our new poll.
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— Adam Wollner
What to watch for in the Georgia special election tonight
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
Tonight’s special election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District should clarify who will succeed former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — even if it doesn’t produce an official winner.
The contest is essentially a jungle primary, with candidates all listed on the same ballot regardless of party. The top two vote-getters will advance to an April 7 runoff, unless someone secures an outright majority tonight. But with 17 active candidates in the mix (and a few who have dropped out still appearing on the ballot), that’s an unlikely outcome.
The expectation is that one runoff spot will go to a Democrat, Shawn Harris, who ran against Greene in 2024 and was defeated 64%-36%. Tapping into the deep interest of the party nationally, Harris has raised significant money and should corral most of the Democratic vote tonight. With the GOP vote divided among multiple candidates, that should land him in the top two — and it’s even possible he could finish tonight with the most votes.
The problem for Harris is that the 14th District is overwhelmingly Republican: President Donald Trump carried it by 37 points in 2024. But Harris could still improve on his 2024 showing, since Democrats have been turning out for special elections at a higher rate than Republicans throughout Trump’s second term. In five previous House special elections, Democratic candidates have posted net improvements of between 13 and 22 points compared to the 2024 presidential result in their districts.
If that pattern holds tonight, and if he can monopolize the Democratic vote, Harris could pass 40%. But anything beyond that, tonight or in a runoff, would represent a level of Democratic overperformance that we just haven’t seen in a race like this.
Which means that the real action tonight should be for the other runoff slot. The favorite to secure it is Clay Fuller, who is a district attorney for several counties in the district. Fuller ran for this seat in 2020 and notched just 7% of the vote in a GOP primary that was won by Greene. But this time around, he has the endorsement of Trump, which can often make all the difference in a race like this.
Fuller’s main competition should come from former state Sen. Colton Moore, who has championed Trump’s false 2020 election claims and rankled members of his own party with provocative antics. He’s backed by some MAGA-aligned voices, but failing to win over Trump himself was a significant blow to his campaign. A third GOP candidate, Brian Stover, has also raised significant money and has a base in the biggest single component county in the district, Paulding.
Paulding is a fast-growing Atlanta exurban county and should account for about a quarter of all votes tonight. Unlike much of the country, Paulding’s electorate actually moved to the left in 2024, with Trump’s 24-point margin in the county representing a five-point drop from his 2020 performance. If there’s a notable Democratic enthusiasm advantage, it will be evident in Paulding’s results and from the portion of neighboring Cobb County that’s in the district, too. It’s the only part of the district where Trump failed to win by double digits in 2024.
The two other population centers are around the city of Rome in Floyd County, and Dalton in Whitfield County. Whitfield is notable for its large Hispanic population — more than a third of all residents, one of the highest concentrations in the state.
The “Kornacki Cam” will go live when polls close tonight in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET. Watch here →
🗳️What else to watch: GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson are looking to fend off primary challengers in Mississippi, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Read more →
NBC News poll: Majority of voters say risks of AI outweigh the benefits
By Allan Smith
Voters are worried about AI and don’t trust either political party to handle the rapidly evolving technology, according to a new national NBC News survey.
A majority of registered voters, 57%, said they believe the risks of AI outweigh its benefits, compared with 34% who said the opposite. What’s more, a plurality of voters view AI negatively and don’t believe either Democrats or Republicans are doing a good job handling policy related to the rapidly advancing technology.
Just 26% of voters said they have positive feelings about AI, compared with 46% who hold negative views. In fact, the only topics with a lower net positive rating than AI in the NBC News survey were the Democratic Party and Iran.
Asked which party is better at handling AI, 20% of voters in the NBC News poll said Republicans, while 19% said Democrats. Meanwhile, 33% of voters said neither party was good at dealing with AI, while 24% said the parties were about the same.
The shares of voters who said either Republicans or Democrats were better at handling AI were lower than the share of voters who said either party was better at handling any other issue polled by NBC News.
Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the NBC News poll along with the Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates, said the findings indicate AI is an issue that’s “up for grabs” by both parties to try to seize a political advantage.
🗞️ Today's other top stories
- ➡️ Iran war update: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would see America’s “most intense day of strikes inside Iran.” Oil prices swung sharply as conflicting reports about shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices down for much of the morning, then higher in the afternoon. And yesterday, Trump described the war in Iran as “short term.” Follow live updates →
- ❓Noem fallout: Trump has peppered aides in recent days about whether longtime adviser Corey Lewandowski profited personally from a $220 million federal advertising campaign featuring Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who was fired last week. Read more →
- ☁️ Cloudy forecast: The prospects for the SAVE America Act are growing murkier on Capitol Hill as divisions deepen among Senate Republicans about how to pass it and whether it’s possible to overcome Democratic opposition. Read more →
- ⚖️ SCOTUS clash: Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh disagreed about frequent rulings in favor of the Trump administration during a rare joint appearance. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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