The voting bloc that could swing Maine's Senate race: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman explains why the leading Democratic Senate candidates in Maine are increasingly focused on one group of voters. Plus, Kristen Welker digs into all the uncertainty that still surrounds the Iran war one month in.

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— Adam Wollner

Janet Mills and Graham Platner battle for female voters in Maine’s key Senate race

By Bridget Bowman

Gov. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner are battling over female voters as Maine’s critical Senate race heats up, underscoring how the group could be decisive both in the June Democratic primary and the November general election.

Mills and Platner in recent days have launched TV ads narrated by women and held dueling events highlighting women who are backing their campaigns. Platner’s campaign has also been heavily targeting women with ads online: 80% of its spending on ads on Google this year has targeted only female voters, according to the platform’s ad tracker.

The latest missive came Thursday as Mills released another TV ad targeting Platner over online posts in 2013 in which he downplayed sexual assault. Platner, a combat veteran, has disavowed those posts and attributed them to his struggles with post-traumatic stress disorder following his service in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mills and Platner are vying to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in the fall in a race that is a must-win for Democrats in their quest to net four seats and take control of the Senate. Collins has been able to survive in the blue-leaning state in part because of her appeal among female voters. During her last re-election race in 2020, she narrowly won female voters by 3 points, even as President Donald Trump lost them by 23 points, according to NBC News exit polling.

A new Emerson College poll of likely Democratic primary voters released yesterday found Platner leading Mills by nearly 30 points, with 13% of voters undecided. Platner had an 18-point advantage among women and a 41-point advantage among men.

“It’s hard to imagine winning the Maine primary without doing well amongst women, and particularly older women,” said David Farmer, a Maine Democratic strategist who is not involved in the Senate race. He noted that women over age 65 tend to make up a plurality of primary voters in Maine.

Polls indicate that women, a key part of the Democratic coalition broadly, are particularly fired up ahead of the midterm elections.

A recent national NBC News poll found 67% of women rated themselves as 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale measuring their interest in the election, compared with 61% of men. The survey also found women favoring Democrats in the battle for Congress by 7 points, while men favored Republicans by 9 points.

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Uncertainty looms over the Iran war as it hits the one-month mark

Analysis by Kristen Welker

As the war in Iran hits the one-month mark, there are more questions than answers about the largest-scale military conflict the U.S. has entered in more than 20 years.

It’s the kind of war President Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail that he wouldn’t get involved in. And he’s now running up against his self-imposed clock, repeatedly estimating the war could last four to six weeks.

Administration officials continue to stress that the bombing campaign has made major strides in degrading Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities while dealing a heavy blow to the nation’s senior leadership. But Democrats and even some Republicans on Capitol Hill are voicing frustration around the lack of clarity about the military objectives, broader strategy and exit plan, as NBC News reports Trump is weighing the possibility of sending thousands of ground troops into Iran as part of an attempt to end the war.

The diplomatic path is even muddier. While the president extended his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and told reporters yesterday the two sides are having “very substantial talks,” Iranian state media is reporting that the country “responded negatively” to the U.S. proposals, as hard-liners appear to be filling the void caused by the death of so many of Iran’s key leaders.

Amid all of that uncertainty, one thing remains relatively clear: Polling shows Americans are skeptical of the war and concerned about prices. Multiple surveys this week have shown Trump’s approval rating at or near a second-term low.

All of that only raises the pressure on U.S. negotiators — who the president said Tuesday include special envoy Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

As the war drags on, Iranian activist and journalist Masih Alinejad delivered a warning during yesterday’s “Meet the Press NOW,” saying: “There is no one in the Islamic Republic who understands language of diplomacy, because Islamic Republic understands only language of force.”

Join me this Sunday for “Meet the Press,” where I’ll speak with Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., about the war and the Department of Homeland Security shutdown.

Follow live Iran war updates →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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