The Rubio-Vance Iran dynamic: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we dig into the 2028 implications of the war with Iran. Plus, Peter Nicholas speaks to President Donald Trump about his plans for Iranian oil.

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— Adam Wollner

Iran war elevates Marco Rubio in Trump’s 2028 succession jockeying

By Matt Dixon, Henry J. Gomez and Monica Alba

In the early hours of Feb. 28, President Donald Trump and his administration joined Israel in launching a wave of strikes on Iran that would reverberate across the Middle East. That night, he was schmoozing at Mar-a-Lago with some of his top administration officials and political donors, with a pressing question: Marco or JD?

With a group of roughly 25 GOP donors, including New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and billionaire Georgia gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson, Trump asked the room whom they would prefer he support for president in 2028.

Attendees overwhelmingly indicated Secretary of State Marco Rubio through their cheering, according to two people who were at the event.

“It was almost unanimous for Marco,” said a person in attendance, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Another person in the room characterized the response as more “evenly split” between Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

That small gathering in Florida — Rubio’s home state — doesn’t necessarily mean that Rubio is the new favorite over Vance for 2028. And it’s not the first time Trump has quizzed those in his orbit about how he should engage in the forthcoming political fight to replace him as the Republican standard-bearer.

But it’s another instance of the dynamic and an indication that the president plans to play a big role — and is taking an early interest — in the future of the party. And it’s all a reminder of how fluid things are in Trump’s orbit and how quickly the president’s thinking can shift.In recent weeks Trump has increasingly praised Rubio, who, because of his duties as secretary of state and national security adviser, is more front and center as the administration increasingly focuses on foreign policy fights in Venezuela, Iran and potentially Cuba.

And while Rubio’s profile has risen thanks to his foreign policy portfolio, Vance has, by contrast, faded more into the background.

Rubio was present at the makeshift Mar-a-Lago war room when the Iran strikes were launched, while Vance was in Washington, pictured at the head of the table, where the president would typically sit, drinking a Mountain Dew in the Situation Room. Vance, according to a spokesperson, was not at Mar-a-Lago because of administration security protocols “to maintain operational secrecy” and “to limit the president and vice president co-locating away from the White House.”

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Trump tells NBC News it’s 'too soon' to talk about seizing Iran’s oil — but doesn’t rule it out

By Peter Nicholas

President Donald Trump left open the prospect of acquiring Iranian oil as the U.S. proceeds with a war officials have said is aimed at depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon and defanging it so that it no longer poses a threat to the U.S. or Middle East neighbors.

Trump told NBC News that he did not want to discuss whether he would like the U.S. to seize Iranian oil, but added: “Certainly people have talked about it.”

He mentioned Venezuela, where the U.S. carried out a raid in January that captured the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Since then, the Trump administration has taken steps to secure and tap Venezuela’s oil reserves. In his State of the Union speech last month, Trump said that the U.S. has already gotten more than 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela.

“You look at Venezuela,” Trump told NBC News. “People have thought about it, but it’s too soon to talk about that.”

Taking control of some portion of Iranian oil could strain U.S. relations with China. About 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports go to China, the world’s second-largest economy and America’s biggest geopolitical rival.

Oil prices shot past $100 a barrel over the weekend in response to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Iran is the world’s ninth leading producer of oil, with about 5% of total output.

Trump also reiterated his unhappiness over Iran’s selection of a new supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an air strike at the start of the war. The Shia clerics chose as a successor Khamenei’s 56-year-old son Motjaba Khamenei, considered a hard-liner.

“I think they made a big mistake,” Trump said of the decision to elevate the son. “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake.”

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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